Election Game Theory - How Bush Can Win

Guestblog from "Ahpah", who could take and ace the Google Labs Aptitude Test (GLAT - yes, it does exist!) if he weren't so focused on Hold 'Em. Using Game Theory, the great innovation by Nash (per A Beautiful Mind), Ahpah, not being convinced the Redskins Indicator has already called this for Kerry, applies his analytical mind to predict the outcome of this election:

There is an interesting combinatorics analysis that can be applied to the election. If you look at the most recent polling data from Rasmussen for example, there are 10 toss up states. The solid state totals are:

Bush = 222
Kerry = 203

If you assume the 10 toss ups are indeed "too close to call" then we can flip a coin all of them. This makes for 2^10 = 1024 combos. Bush has the edge almost 2:1:

Bush combos = 659 (64.4%)
Kerry combos = 348 (34.0%)
Tie combos = 17 ( 1.6%)

There is one further insight. If there is a sweep by either candidate of PA, OH, and FL, he will win as this represents 20 + 21 + 27 = 68 votes (Kerry 203 + 68 = 271, just enough to win). If we take out all the scenarios in which all three big states vote the same way, the odds become:

Bush = 531 (69.2%)
Kerry = 220 (28.6%)
Tie = 17 ( 2.2%)

Again, the odds favor Bush. This means that Bush has a clear dominate strategy (in the Nash Equilibrium sense): Pick any one state of PA, OH, FL and win it. This lowers Kerry's chance of winning to close to 1 in 4. This means that Bush should spend all day Monday in FL instead of trying to get to all three states.

As an aside: Right now there are only 7 states on TradeSports that are trading in the range of 35-65%:

New Hampshire 36%
Minnesota 38%
Ohio 50%
Wisconsin 50%
Iowa 56%
Florida 61%
New Mexico 65%

Notice how this list differs from what many call the battleground states. For example PA is trading at 25%, so the smart money believes this to be a clear Kerry state.

Ahpah

Comments

[Hieronym]

You are the best! Im glad...

[Melanie Stefine]

Looks like your playing presidential poker. Ahpah, what I have for you is an important message. Please read and pass it along. I have a message to tell you about Revelation. The message is from God, Jesus and the Holy Ghost respectively sent in the Spring of 2006. It is about the meaning of First is Last and Last is First . The message is this:

In the morning I go to Heaven. In the afternoon I live my life. In the evening I die, death. What does this mean? In other words this means Birth is Last and Last is Birth. To understand this don’t think from point A to point B. Think of this as a continous circle of life. Birth, Life, Death, Birth. God also said that Judgment will be before Birth in Heaven. As birth on Earth is painful so will birth in Heaven. It is possible that this message was delivered by one of God’s Angels. Yes, God has recently made contact and he sent a messenger. Spread this message along, just like a chain letter. Melanie Stefine

[Melanie Steffan]

God sent this message in the year 2007. The message is this:
We each die in succession, then we are born on the same day. I received this message in a waking dream form God. He had more to say than this. Melanie

[Melanie Steffan]

Correction: To the meaning of First is Last and Last is First. It means that Birth is Last and Birth is First. Sorry for the error. God talks in symbols and opposites at times so it takes time to figure out what he is saying. Some of his messages are clearer than others, plus they have multiple meanings.