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« Market Cows Wolf! Wolf! | Main | The Other Wolf! Wolf! »

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

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EN

The US stock indices seem to have built a brick house around themselves because, no matter how hard the wolf blows, he just can't seem to blow them down.

The recent decline is slow and full of overlapping waves. So far, there are two fast moves one can see. From 1248.5 in the E-Mini to 1224.25 followed by several days of overlapping corrective activity (that can be seen as a triangle formation) and then a second fast move from 1238.5. This gives initial targets in the E-mini of 1214.25 and 1199.25. Check out the intraday p/c ratio and tell me this thing is not ultimately headed higher. Listen to the business talk radio shows and the host of technical analyts that say this rally is over. Then try to remember the last time EVERYBODY was correct.

The STU's analysis is fine for bonds and currencies but when it comes to stock indices & gold/silver, they tend to be wrong 80% of the time. What this tells me is that the FANTASY of a Grand Supercycle crash is too strong to allow them to practice proper Elliott with respect to stocks and precious metals; for such assets must sell-off for this super deflation scenario to play out. I cancelled my subscription because their stock analysis can be summarized for the next 5 years as: "Primary Wave 2 is finishing and Primary Wave 3 is starting". I would not be surprised if they bang that Bear drum for another 15 years before they finally shed the fantasy. Their client's short money will whip this thing higher.

I would stick with Neely, so far he is right on track and almost never has to adjust his counts.

NEoWave Trader

If you want to make money.

Stick with Neely.

Buy the Dips

I agree with what EN said. Prechters FANTASY of a Grand Supercycle crash is simply too strong to allow them to practice proper Elliott with respect to stocks.

In a recent Tim Woods interview (Cyclesman.com) Prechter says he turning very BULLISH after 2014. I'll have to see that one to believe it. Prechter is just too hopelessly addicted and fixated on 1929. I think he'll be bearish to his death hoping for another 1929.

The "1929 hoax" and permabear stance has made Prechter and EWI alot of money peddling books and newsletters to novice investors. I dont see them giving up their bread and butter scare sales tool anytime soon.

JS

I have a subscription to the STU. I have made a ton of profits in the last 2 years doing the EXACT opposite of their expectations.

I highly recommend this service as a contrary indicator, even better than the hype on CNBC.

Greg

Anyone ever get those 7-8 page folded color scam letters in the mail on stock predictions from some guru? Then the letters ask $300-$400 for newsletters and courses.

Prechter is a master of the scam letter.

I have some old Prechter scam mailing letters from around 1991-1992 when he was hyper-bearish at Dow 3200. He compared the Dow 1992 top to the 1929 top.

Maybe I can dig them up and post some charts and excerpts to show how ridiculous his analysis has always been.

To my knowledge, Glenn Neely has never mass-produced one of those 8 page color stock scam letters to sell tapes and newsletters or capitalized on investors fears like Prechter has done in the past.

rdneu56

As long as one relies on somebody elses opinion about the stock market, one will loose money in the long run. You have to put in the work and develop your own methods. Ony then can you hope to have chance.
Based on the comment from NEoWave Trader, I now think that this bear market will resume in 2014, unless Prechter turns bullish earlier.

Joseph Pugla

Yeah, Prechter's style is very cheesy and lowbrow and mass-maiing. He's got lots of subcontractors working for him saying all kinds of silly and sometimes contradictory things. The quality control is just not very good.

He might be right, of course, but he sure has been wrong in spades and has preyed upon panic, the very emotion he seems to suggest we can conquer.

A little knowledgeis a dangerous thing. There are so many exuberant real estate investors and stock investors that I have felt a strong tempttion to go short and buy puts that has burned me in the past. I have been humbled. Markets are probably difficult to figure out. Understanding markets might even be incompatble with being a human being.

Jimmy James

Is this the third wave crash that everybody is talking about? At this rate, the DOW should reach 400 by the year 4000.

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