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« $evere Roller Coaster | Main | Howl of the Wolf! Wolf! »

Monday, September 26, 2005


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I bought 10 year T-notes because I think they are going higher based on the price pattern. Interesting to see that there may be some fundamentals driving the price action.


As long as the US is running a trade deficit, foreigners as an aggregate group cannot get out of the dollar. They either have to buy more US produced goods (which they are obviously not doing) or invest their excess dollars is US real-estate, stocks or coporate bonds or US Treasury securities (which they are obviously doing).


Anyone know what the (STU) is saying the market is doing here.

Any current Wolf calls?


I don't know how they could justify any wolf call since the early august high we have 3 down to Katrina, 3 up, 3 down to Rita and now 3 up about to finish. That said, I don't know since I gave up my sub a long while back.


I will post an update this weekend. For those who cannot wait, the summary is: market is in a bearish diamond formation, similar to what was seen in 2000 at the top. Then, it hovered around Dow11K for 2 years. Now, for 2 years around Dow10500. A break below Dow10300 could lead to a meltdown. Although they do not highlight this, the pattern could continue into 2006 before breaking. If you look at other ewave sources, including Neely, this breakdown may happen next week, although Neely does not expect a break below the Oct02 lows. If you look at broader market trends, this is more likely to last beyond Greenspan resigning in early 2006.


Neely is calling for a crash here?


I see a triangle such that Friday's action is D wave UP with E wave down imminent this week comming. Then big october-november rally to finish off the cyclical bull at 1265-1300. That is, final C wave up has yet to start, unless yearly high taken out before a fade back to 1220. The yearly high WILL be popped before this sucker goes down - forget the diamond. More like a rising wedge.


Ran into former colleague at Urban Outfitters this pm with his daughters and asked where he's investing. He made a killing in the 1990s in tech stocks and pulled out before the drop. He said he was as bullish as ever. Guy is smart and usually pretty skeptical, so I'm inclined to think the bearishness I sense in friends and on boards is overdone. By the way, Urban Outfitters carries this black paperback Saving Face I think is the title but it's a guide to awkward social situations. Funny sh*t, especially the chapter on sex. They should have done a chapter on money.

Buy the Dips

Theres not many Blog titles left you can use for future Prechter wolf updates. You could always start using Roman numerals :)

Son of the Ghost of Wolf meets return of the Wolf Wolf Part XXVI

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