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« AAPL Joins GOOG, Heads South | Main | Market Hits New High, Prechter Calls it "Topping" »

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

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LoneStarHog

Free? That is still overpriced. When will EWI pay me a monthly fee to access EWI services? Then and only then will EWI and Prechter/Hochberg be worth my time, and then only as a daily source of humor.

mroz78

Must be close to another intermediate term bottom if EWI is offering free services to get the real idiots to short the market like in October with the "Crash" Calls that signified the bottom for a 100+ point rally in the SPX.

Am I right?

Who needs "Free Weeks"?

Prechter/Hochberg has labeled nearly every rally for the last 16 years as a WAVE 2 with an IMMINENT 5 wave collapse 'just ahead'...and they have refused to change their count for 16 years....

So I imagine EWI still has the most recent minor top as a WAVE 2 with an IMMINENT 5 wave decline ahead.

Am I right?

(Who needs to spend $400-$2400 a year for that)

francis schutte

Reading the comments, I think we now must be really close to some REAL FRIGHTENING market correction...

Today, the major problem being that the market participants are being led by a basic lack of experience(age)and good sence.

I do remember quite well 1989 when a friend of mine and myself openly discussed the immiment drop of the Japanese markets (yes, even the Real Estate market) and the Yen....

Blaming anybody for calling a top to early, is very eazy, but also stupid: better be early then late!

I also have been blamed many times for being early. However, once it all happens, these voices are gone..and so is their money!

LoneStarHog

Could somebody interpret this for me? Thanks.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reading the comments, I think we now must be really close to some REAL FRIGHTENING market correction...

Today, the major problem being that the market participants are being led by a basic lack of experience(age)and good sence.

I do remember quite well 1989 when a friend of mine and myself openly discussed the immiment drop of the Japanese markets (yes, even the Real Estate market) and the Yen....

Blaming anybody for calling a top to early, is very eazy, but also stupid: better be early then late!

I also have been blamed many times for being early. However, once it all happens, these voices are gone..and so is their money!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LS

LoneStareHog,

Francis is saying that a calamity may be at hand in the financial markets because all of the comments are mocking Precter and anyone else with a bearish view. I too remember 1989 when covers of magazines where asking if Japan economy would overtake the US. Japanneese where buying property with 100 year mortgages and snapping up property in California. The Japanneese stock market was on a tear and the 10 largest banks in the world were all in Japan. Sentiment at the time was optomistic and pesimists where mocked.

Contrast that with today's Japan where property prices have fallen 80%, the banks are in deep trouble, and even with the recent run up in the Japaneese stock market it is still depressed. Financial history seems to repeat itself over and over.

Note that the Japaneese stock market crashed a decade before our 1929 crash. I don't know how the future will play out, but she has a point.

LoneStarHog

LS said, "Francis is saying that a calamity may be at hand in the financial markets because all of the comments are mocking Precter and anyone else with a bearish view."

I have to dispute this, at least in my case. I am as bearish as they come. The only thing holding up these markets is the PPT with hundreds of billions provided by the Federal Reserve.

While I am extremely bearish, I mock Prechter and Hackberg because those two idiots have been bearish for as long as I can remember. It is one thing to be "early", but it is something else to be a constant bear and then claim victory when years and years later the big bad bear strikes.

Prechter and Hackberg remind me of someone who predicts that there will be a terrible accident at a particular roadway intersection. So they set up a tent waiting for it to happen. Years and years go by and finally a terrible accident occurs. Then they tell the world about how their prophetic vision was so correct.

The only problem with these two clowns is that when the accident happens, they will have gone to the local convenience store to "take a leak" and will miss the whole thing.

However, thanks for the clarification.

Hog Note: While I do realize that one actually "leaves a leak", or I would hope that one does, the normal saying is to "take a leak". However, I must confess that all these years that I have been "leaving a leak", when I return the "leaks" are gone. Maybe some people are a bit more literal when "taking a leak". This is something that I would expect from those two 'literal idiots'.

MHD

Finally, an intelligent email from LoneStarHog. When the Feds, in desperation, lower interest rates to 1%, and Congress and their idiot leader lower taxes on the rich with no spending cuts, you really are going against the odds as far as a wave 3 down. Prechter pays too much attention to the technicals. Had he seen what the feds were doing he would have realized that his wave 3 was going to be delayed for some time. Add the Chinese and Japan's cooperation as far as buying our worthless debt, which is backed by manicures, and you wind up with a huge wave 2, or maybe the final wave 5 up. Only time will tell. Will Prechter finally be right about his doomsday scenario? Of that I'm sure he will be. And the Feds recent action will assure it will only be worse. For those of you who think we are in a bull market and we can borrow and spend our way to prosperity, I wish I could enter your little fantasy world. It sounds like a much better place than the reality we are in. Sadly, that reality is we have dug ourselves in a hole that we can't get out of. Living beyond our means by borrowing it, makes this illusion look real, and many of you permabulls will continue to think this is sustainable. At some point in the near future you will see that it is NOT.
Prechter will be proven correct on his "fundamental" views, but his technical calls have left a lot to be desired. By trying to time the market and making bold calls for the end, he is making an a#% out of himself. The great work he does on the fundamentals is being thrown in the trash along with his technical work, which is sad. The Elliott Wave Theory can help with probabilities, and nothing more. You can never be 100% sure of where you are in the waves, as Pretcher has proven over and over. A good read on probabilities is Zoran. He does not attempt to make bold calls, he only says the probabilities are leaning in a certain direction with lines drawn in the sand to cancel that outlook.

EN

The comment about Elliott being only a read on probabilities is right on; this is why it should never be used as a sole methodolgy. That is what Prechter seems to forget and thus always forecasts the most bearish potential. This inflexible approach means that Prechter would not be a good trader and is probably why he does not in fact trade.

They (EWI) are so certain that Jan. 11 is THE TOP because of 5 waves out of the triangle. But they refuse to consider that that triangle, instead of being a B or a 4th wave, may actually have been an X wave such that a zig-zag (ABC) will emanate from it. Thus, YES, we have five waves from the October 05 bottom to the January 05 top but that was just the first of 2 five waves sequences.

The action since January 11 is a textbook corrective structure or what Zoran might call a "continuation pattern". Thus we should expect another 5 wave sequence to mark the final C wave of the ABC OUT OF THE X WAVE TRIANGLE. This would be consistent with the recent top in the metals complex as well as the collapse of the housing market in mid-2006. Very bearish to be sure but not before one more 5 wave fling to the upside after this complex correction terminates in a couple of weeks.

LoneStarHog

MHD said, "Finally, an intelligent email from LoneStarHog."

So anyone who disagrees with you is unintelligent, but anyone who agrees with you is intelligent?

I'm not too sure if this was implied or if I am just inferring. I don't believe that it is the latter.

Grow up, kid!

LS

Since the Dow reached over 11k in early January it has gone sideways. Other sub-indices such as the Russell 2000, DJTA and the NYSE have achieved their recent highs just last week. There seems to be a case for corrective action in the major indices as EN pointed out above and a yet to be determined formation in the markets that have lead the market.

On the fundamental side of the coin, flat or inverted yield curve, mutual fund outflows have been occuring for many months now according to Trim Tabs, mutual fund cash positions are lower than the record in 2000, massive foriegn buying of US equities, credit card minimum payments are up, no tax cuts year over year, recent purchasers of homes using adjustable rate mortgages are going to be readjusted, and I have just recently noticed less bank advertisments for loans and more requesting depositors.

Will this just be a giant wall of worry for the markets to climb, or the hindsight reasons for a fall in equity prices? The major markets are in a very long wedge formation from the 2004 high until the recent highs, once the market brakes out of this range decisively we will have clarity. Until then it is great to read all of your bullish and bearish comments.

Keep them comming.

MHD

LoneStar... it is the latter. I was not indicating that your past posts were stupid. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
LS, rising wedges are bearish, but I've seen so many smaller ones fail over the last couple of years that I do not trust them until they are broken by a large amount. I've shorted the markets quite a few times on a break of a rising wedge, only to see prices move rapidly north. Stop losses have saved me a bundle. The only thing different about this wedge is the size. Two years might make this one more reliable.

LoneStarHog

MHD said, "LoneStar... it is the latter." Okay, thanks for the clarification. I feel better now.

I look upon these markets and the economy in general as a giant snowball being pushed UPHILL, rather than the proverbial DOWNHILL one. However, just like its cousin the downhill one, it grows larger and larger, which requires more and more energy (read support) to keep it going uphill. The support continues to come from the Fed's print press and foreign investors. The problem will be when there is no longer sufficient energy due to the shear size of the snowball. THIS is what makes the present circumstances and practices so terrifying.

When it was a much smaller snowball and it reversed course, the overall damage would have been far less severe. The longer these fools continue to push this thing uphill and the larger it grows the more catastrophic when it reverses - and it WILL reverse.

The problem with attempting to invest in these markets is that NOTHING is reliable, due to the massive controls/intervention by the stinking U.S. Government and its foreign whores (read Japan, et al).

Personally, since there is no telling WHEN that snowball will reverse - from shear size, lack of support, or some exogenous event like the snowball encounters an avalanche - I have had 100% of my assets in physical gold since 2000 and adding physical silver since 2003, with multiple trades accomplished. I see no other safe harbor that could weather an IMMEDIATE and CATASTROPHIC reversal. (e.g. I expect the reversal to start some night in Asia and spread to Europe and American's will awaken to find total financial destruction)

Scary to say the least, especially when one realizes the ARROGANT IDIOTS who are in charge of pushing the snowball. Ludwig von Mises is screaming, but the ARROGANT are too ARROGANT to listen.

J. Hunter should replace Hochberg

J. Hunter in the 'Free Week' called this rally to 1280 and is now calling for a quick c-wave drop to 1246 area.

Impressive if he gets it right.

mroz78

Are we in Wave 3 yet.......is that Wave 3 up? or Wave 3 down?.....why can't the world just end so we can get on with the next bull market?.......this is the argument the bears continually make......good luck with that one.

The thing I find most ironic about the bear argument, is they do not make their argument because they are worried about saving what they have. They are trying to get just as rich on the downside by selling short, buying puts, etc. They have the same greedy attitude the bulls have, the only difference is the bears are broke.

LoneStarHog

mroz78 said, "...the only difference is the bears are broke..."

Mr. OZ is a good handle for you since you definitely exist in and believe in the Grand Illusion.

A couple of things, Oh Great Wizard of Oz!

> The Federal Reserve has been pumping 1/4 point increases out the front door while pumping TRILLIONS out the back door. Fighting inflation? Please!

> Where has all of this liquidity gone? Into the stock markets driving the averages higher. Not due to APPRECIATION but due to INFLATION.

> In REAL dollars, the market indexes are at the same place as in October 2002 (e.g. Dow ~7000)

> To keep this short, EVERYTHING should be measured relative to REAL MONEY - Gold! When you measure the market indexes, et al. against gold, you see beyond the ILLUSION.

> Bears are NOT broke. Bears, like myself, who have invested in gold since 2000 and silver since 2003 have SIGNIFICANT REAL GAINS, while you so-called bulls have been RUNNING IN PLACE. Maybe that's why it is called the RUNNING OF THE BULLS?

You just keep believing in the ILLUSION while the rest of us BOOK REAL GAINS, well ahead of inflation.

Son, you need to get a clue, buy a vowel, or stop posting and making a fool of yourself.

What truly amazes me is that if ANYONE should be able to detect BULLSHIT, it would be BULLS!

LoneStarHog

For All Of You So-Called Bulls!

Money Supply> http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/

The Federal Reserve in FIGHTING INFLATION increased the M3 Money Supply for the week of 1/30 - 2/6 by SIXTY-FIVE POINT FOUR BILLION STINKING FREAKING DOLLARS ($65,400,000,000.00), in ONE FREAKING WEEK!

That is an annualized rate of THREE POINT FOUR TRILLION DOLLARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Their NORMAL annualized rate has been approximately ONE POINT TWO TRILLION FREAKING DOLLARS.

Bull Market? Dow 11,000? S&P 1300+?

Give me a freaking break!

rdneu56

Hey LoneStar
Have you ever considered seeing a therapist, before that nasty streak of yours gets worse and becomes something much more serious?

LoneStarHog

rdneu56 said, "...that nasty streak of yours..."

Huh? Care to share with me where I have been "nasty"?

Is someone else "nasty" when mocking bears with phony data?

Help me out here.....

FREAKIN BEAR

I HATE to see people say someone needs a THERAPIST! If they FEEL GOOD then they don't need to see a therapist! Therapy is fine if you want it. If you don't, that's fine, too.

Jimmy James

HEy Low Hog:

What you going to do with that gold when its worth 200 bucks? Use it for a coffee table?

Howard Nguen

My model are saying gold will not worth again 200 dollars in my lifetimes yet coffee might ! Commodity will be very good investment!

LoneStarHog

Jimmy James said, "What you going to do with that gold when its worth 200 bucks?"

I won't own gold when it is $200.00. I will have transferred assets when gold spikes due to hyperinflation.

Ya see, first we will see severe inflation to hyperinflation, then we will see a deflationary crash.

Tell me something, is that EWI/Prechter purple Kool-Aid pretty good stuff? I notice it has the effect of keeping his followers in a perpetual surreal state so that they don't notice his pathetic calls.

> In Conquer the Crash he said that IF gold got over $400 that he would have to RECONSIDER his position on deflation.

> When gold blew through $400 to $433 and corrected, he said that IF gold got back above the $433 level that he would have to RECONSIDER his position on deflation.

> When gold blew back through $433 to $458 and corrected, he said that IF gold got back above the $458 level that he would have to RECONSIDER his position on deflation.

> When gold blew back through $458 and took out the old December Contract high, he said that IF gold got back above the old December Contract high level that he would have to RECONSIDER his position on deflation.

> When gold blew back through the old December Contract high and spiked to $578, he said that IF gold got back above the $578 level that he would have to RECONSIDER his position on deflation.

Now, put down the Kool-Aid and allow your body to cleanse itself, then with a clear and Kool-Aid free head ask yourself IF you see a PATTERN here.

NASA needs to name the next discovered comet after Prechter, but since comets do not trace an erratic and unidentifiable pattern, it really would not be apropos. Prechter should be a case study in Chaos Theory.

Hey, but thanks for another great Prechter laugh for the weekend.

I am the GOLD and SILVER rich Hog and YOU isn't.

Howard Nguen

My model agree with LongStarHog on inflation. This Prehnter is not to be trusted if he say that gold will predetermine deflation. A hoax! Deflation probably the last thing to worry about after inflation, commodity increase, stagflation, unemployment, dollar devalation.

My model exceedingly accurate! I wish you good luck. H. Nguen Ph.D.

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