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Friday, December 01, 2006

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jeff clark

As Saturn pulls away from its trine with Pluto, and the good times begin to ebb away into recession, the best that can be expected is: GOLDILOCKS.

I perceive that "goldilocks" is code word coming up out of the collective unconscious and is a veiled reference to the very next timeslice...a period defined by the next big outer-planet configuration:
Saturn in Leo opposite Neptune in Aquarius.

The fair young (Neptunian) maiden with the golden (Leonine) hair (hair being Saturn ruled).

This configuration will unfold very rapidly (for an outer planet combination), because Saturn is backing and Neptune is full speed ahead.

The 3 Degree orb is attained on Feb 2nd
The 1 degree orb on Feb 19th
The opposition is exact on Feb 28

They will pass by each other and reconvene later in 2007 for the 3rd and final time.. check June timeframe

Thus the "goldilocks economy" and "soft landing" that has been foretold by the (optimistic) pundits shall be the period between Feb and June of next year.

In the Feb timeframe, a deal will be struck between the US (Saturn) sitting across the table from China (Neptune). This deal will ensure the goldilocks scenario and set up the all-time blow-off top coming summer '07.

EN

Well thought out piece on fundamentals.

The action in the stock market reminds me of the action in September/October 2005 when the SPX hit 1245 fell about 25 points, retested the high and fell almost 70 points in the span of 2 or 3 weeks starting October 3. So we are LIKELY destined for a retest of 1325 or so in the coming month but that should be as you say a correction and we have not seen the bull market highs. We then need more and more and more action to the upside. When this ends, the greed of the public should EXCEED the year 2000 Nasdaq highs.

As for Elliott Wave, this whole mess up and down since 2003 has been a big correction, not a fifth wave, so I would have to side with Neely. His count easily takes this market much higher into 2007 and likely 2008 making it one of the longest cyclical bulls in history.

chrisco

Excellent analysis...

rdneu56

A well thought out piece. There is only one thing that deeply concerns me - Precter expects the dollar to reverse any moment. If I apply a regression analysis to the dollar based Precter's prior forecasts, the rsult is that the dollar will go to oblivion any day now. This is deeply troubling to me because of the Amero proposals:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_currency_union

Joseph Russo

Elliott Wave Technology’s
NEAR TERM OUTLOOK
For Monday - December 4, 2006
________________________________________

FREE ACCESS DECEMBER 8 THRU DECEMBER 18, 2006
@ Stockcharts.com "live" link


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID676791


ELLIOTT WAVE & TRADITIONAL CHART ANALYSIS
LIKE YOU’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE!
________________________________________
A special 'sneak preview' of what's in store a bit later this month.
It has been just over one year since the launch of Elliott Wave Technology's forecasting services. We wish to thank the abundance of loyal members who have been with us from the very start. We also wish to thank and welcome all of our new members to the Elliott Wave Technology forecasting community, and our stockcharts readers as well.

Elliott Wave Technology has a host of site upgrades, and improvements scheduled to take effect for 2007. Upgrades will include more speed, communications, marketing, and interactivity. As usual, we look forward to, and rely upon your continued feedback in affecting such upgrades.
Our steadfast mission is to enhance the level of our services, and provide our growing membership with the most comprehensive, effective, and actionable forecasting experience available anywhere in the world.

Starting on December 8 through December 18, five scheduled issues of our NEAR TERM OUTLOOK will be posted at Stockcharts.com "live" link FREE! We will be traveling during this period, and as such, we must condense our typical coverage and commentary considerably. The posts will include condensed coverage of our Daily, and 30-minute studies from the NTO.

Weekly, Monthly, and Hourly charts are included with the full version of the NTO. In addition, the NTO gives you free access to Day Traders Perspective, The Interim Monthly Forecast, and Our Millennium Wave Quarterly Reports.

Posts will be available by the open of trade, each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Each scheduled publication will remain 'live' on the stockcharts site for the entire 24-hour period of the date issued. Once the day of issuance has past, the premium posts will go off the site, and not return until the next scheduled publication is due.

Best wishes for a joyous Holiday Season to all. Let's get to the charts, and on with the EWT forecasting experience @ Stockcharts.com "live" link
Until next time,

Joseph Russo
Publisher & Chief Market Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

Futia Blog is on the money

Election correction is not on

Carl Futia has excellent weekend analysis:

How to Trade Your Forecasts
Sunday, December 03, 2006

As you know I like to predict the future trends in markets. I think this distinguishes me from most market analysts. They generally predict the past by telling you why the market went up or down yesterday or last month. Then they tell you in effect that the market will go up tomorrow or next month unless it goes down. Some of them can even do this with a straight face.

When you predict the future your job is only half done at the time you make your forecast. As the market moves it keeps giving you new information about its technical condition. Moreover, the extent to which it is following your forecast or deviating from it also tells you whether or not the premises underlying your forecast were good ones or not.

Only a fool ignores this new information. Let me put this another way. My only commitment as a trader and investor is to making money, not to being right in my forecasts. So when the market tells me something which contradicts in some way a forecast I made days, weeks, or months ago I generally listen to the market and junk my forecast.

At the current juncture I want to bring your attention to this post. In it I used several methods developed by George Lindsay to predict an important top in the Dow Industrials for the third or fourth week of November.

Well, the time for the predicted top has come and gone yet I still think the market is headed higher, perhaps continuing its advance into the February-March '07 time frame. Why?

The reason is simple enough. In a bull market I have found that uptrends such as this one which began from the June-July lows do not end at the point of maximum bullish sentiment and price velocity. Instead one generally sees some visible drop-off in bullish sentiment and a "rounding over" appearance in the averages before the final top develops. One also generally sees obvious bearish divergences in the advancing issues moving averages. None of these warning signs are yet visible.

In my opinion the late November 2006 time frame will probably mark the point of maximum bullish sentiment. From this point forward I expect a sequence of more or less deep reactions followed by rallies to new bull market highs. This process will probably end sometime in the first quarter of 2007 and be followed by a 15 % break in the averages.

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com

cstradingman

Rate cut expectations in the Fed Funds futures for January have spiked. Told you a cut was coming in Jan. It is now time to start looking for a top in equities. I expect the employment data on Friday to resume the rally in bonds.
The stock market is now digesting the rate cuts coming.

cstradingman

Looks like the current market rally may be the final blowoff. Even the stock bulls have been calling for a top for some time now, but the market keeps going up and up and up because of low long bond yields. I can't get a gauge yet if the stock bulls have become bond bulls yet. I think they are still bearish and expect rates to rise. Once they become bond bulls and stock bulls at the same time, and aloo deny a recession, they will believe the stock market is 40% or more undervalued. Soon after that a stock top will form. I will come up with some price targets and time targets for a top soon.

cstradingman

Also another attempt by bonds to sell off today met with buying. Bonds still looking bullish long term. Rates heading lower and deflation will be the next major event.

Joseph Russo

SCALING GLOBAL PERCEPTIONS UPDATE

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID676791

Watch for the return of our Special 'LIVE' Near Term Outlook presentation each Monday, Wednesday, & Friday from December 8, through December 18.

Send an e-mail request if you'd like to see Elliott Wave Technology introduce an intermdiate, & long-term GLOBAL EQUITY ANALYSIS subscription offering.

Elliott Wave Technology's subscriber services guarantee to provide outstanding competitive advantage for the following groups:

* Industry Professionals
* Active Traders
* Self-Directed Index Investors
* Long-Term Index Investors

In addition to interpreting a host of Traditional Chart Patterns and Sentiment Indicators, Elliott Wave Technology's detailed analytics include:

* Dynamic Sequential Elliott Wave Identification
* Cyclical Degree of Trend Analysis
* Turn Pivot Analysis
* Specific Price Target Windows
* Projected Price Path Postulations
* Strategic Long-Term Market Timing

Latest from Neely

Neely has a new RIVER SYSTEM????????

Our recent, substantial profits in T-Notes and the Euro currency are testiment to the effectiveness of my new NEELY RIVER trading technology. This is a technology that was only possible once I stopped focusing on forecasting as the key to trading profits. Forecasting has its place and can be fun and intellectual, but most traders want to make money. That is what NEELY RIVER theory is all about. A revolutionary concept that equates the flow of money through a market to that of water flowing in a river. Once you understand this concept, your losses will be reduced substantially, your emotionalism will almost completely disappear and your trading results will improve dramatically.

NEELY RIVER trading technology - a more advanced concept than both Elliott Wave and NEoWave - will change your life as a trader.

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.

QQQQ_Predator

interesting. sounds like neely is really disheartened by the failures of elliott in actually making money. prechter gave up on elliott last year when he started giving higher weighting to all the edwards and magee stuff like diamonds, head shoulders

who is next to give up on failed elliott. joe russo?

cstradingman

Suprised stocks are not rallying more. Gold dropping. Bonds yields very low. Inflation scare pretty much gone. Market not anticipating deflation. Looks like the stock market is hungry for some rate cuts! The fed will not start to lower rates until the stock market makes a significant pullback.

rdneu56

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Of course, this is now a much cited phrase since the passing of Milton Friedman and may begin to sound hackneyed, but it is nevertheless absolutely accurate. In other words the root cause behind inflation is profligate spending by the US Congress and is made possible by the power to manufacture money backed by debt instruments granted to the Federal Reserve Bank. Case in point, W’s Iraq adventure by itself swallows a cool 2 Giga Bucks in goods and services per week.
The short and intermediate term fluctuations of bond, currency, commodity and stock markets notwithstanding, inflation is eroding the purchasing power of the paper money in the long run. There are various indicators – PPI – CPI – PCE – that the Fed uses to measure (obfuscate) the effect of inflation. The facts remain the same nevertheless. Government spending generates so called “excess liquidity” that dilutes the value of money. This value loss does not necessarily manifest itself in an immediate and proportionate price increase for goods and services. The excess liquidity can and does go into real-estate, stocks, commodities and bonds. The US was and still is in the enviable position of having its money regarded as reserve currency by the rest of the world. As a result the “trade deficit dollars” do not immediately and not completely return and drive up domestic prices, but are spent abroad on trading between foreign nations to a certain extent. For instance, oil is still traded in US dollars. If that ever changes watch out below.

stu mann

a very good article. one comment: the US$ only dropped 'big' from a trading perspective. Down here in Australasia, it's still a fair bit from the lows of last year, meanwhile OUR trade deficits (OZ & NZ) are blasting off the charts. makes no sense.

That said, the Yen has yet to dip below 110, and the EURO is hardly a bellweather, it's so heavily traded. Movements in the Euro tend to be almost worthless in predicting a trend. Its almost as if it was created to be a fiction.

The fictitious Euro makes a good backdrop for Greenspan's centally planned economy, which has run it's course but can continue on sailing who knows were for an indefinite amount of time. when this thing finally does strike land, the US$ soars because all the other fictions around it start to come undone.

we can only guess about who owns the majority of those foreign assets - we only know that they're offshore. What we don't know is how the holders will react in the midst of global tailspin. which goes to the Q whether China even has an economy. should the US consumer cave, China's "economy" my not simply turn inward and continue chugging away at 10%. then what do those mystery asset holders do? do they remain "global players" or do they rush home to lick their wounds (which I believe to be the US & Europe)

fiction, fiction, everywhere, but not a drop to drink!

?

When is the Election Correction supposed to start?

cstradingman

World central bank's tightening complete. Today's hike by the ECB will be the last. The stong dollar has made teh ECB more dovish. Japan is finished. And the Bank of England and the US have all completed their rate hikes. In The next step global easing will begin to take place. Next year. The bond market remains long term bullish. The stock market is short term bullish. But should top in the next few months. We are going to have to try to pick a top in equities. Will it happen before or after the start of global interest rate cuts. If the market continues to rally un corrected it will be before. Otherwise the cyclical bull market will continue unitil after the easing starts to take place next year. Mild correction in the bond market should complete by the end of next week. I do not see a top in equites yet.

cstradingman

I suppose I should comment I why I feel stocks will ultimately fall during global easing. The market will be dissappointed in the lack of effect global easing has on strengthening the economy. Long bond yields are already low. They will finally come to terms that the central banks are out of ammunition to stimulate growth.

yelnick

?, the Election Correction already started in the Dollar. Equities are in a triangle which looks like a 4th wave. Equities should continue to rise after the triangle in a 5th wave into Mar-May 2007. Could be strong pop up into all time highs, even in the S&P. Right now watch the Dollar - will it hold at these levels? Prechter expects it will, and continue up in a final C wave before it truly collapses. But the Fed is now in a trap that their policies created: raise rates to support the Dollar and force a recession; ease rates to avoid a slowdown and watch the Dollar drop another 30%. Most likely move by the Fed is to try to find a middle path and muddle through, but given comments by the Treasury Secy, when push comes to shove, they will ease rather than support the Dollar.

rdneu56

I am beginning to think that 25 bps interest Fed Funds rate adjustments don't do squad in supporting the dollar or anything else for that matter. If the Fed wants to put a serious dent into inflation and serious support level underneath the dollar they have to act in concert with Congress and engage into some serious open market operations. Congress will have to cut spending and the Fed will have to dump massive amounts of treasury securities in the open market and thus drain liquidity. Of course, the negative side effect of such action is a serious recession. I also think that the Fed is not ready to do this yet and may just continue to do nothing for longer than anybody now believes. For the time being the dollar remains cheap while everything else remains expensive.

cstradingman

rdneu56 -- I agree!!! What is 25 bps going to do. It's the threat that the fed will tighten that keeps inflation in check. The market has to believe that the Fed will act if inflation creeps higher. Not "Gee well they may move to 5.50% the definitely stop". What will that do? But the Feds credibility is clearly gone. With the dollar falling and the Fed fund futures pricing in rate cuts. This while the Fed threatens the markets about inflation. I don't believe inflation is the ultimate problem. But if I am wrong and inflation is around the corner, then this meeting would be a great time for the Fed to act and tighten 25 bps. It will put fear in the markets that the fed means business when it comes to containing inflation and greatly lower inflation expectations. It will also put credibilty back into their hawkish statements. Better to take a little pain now, if I was the Fed, then let inflation go out of control and have your Fed hawkish speak be meaningless.

Joseph Russo

The NEAR TERM OUTLOOK For Friday Dec. 8 is posted.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID676791

On Dec 6 the QQQQ predator posted the following:

"interesting. sounds like Neely is really disheartened by the failures of Elliott in actually making money. Prechter gave up on Elliott last year when he started giving higher weighting to all the Edwards and Maggee stuff like diamonds, head shoulders

who is next to give up on failed Elliott. Joe Russo?"

Elliott Wave Technology's reply:

Rather fair observation and query "Q." The short answer is that we have never embraced Elliott wave theory as a stand-alone method of market analysis, let alone an exclusive method by which to make money, or navigate through the volatile short-term trading environment.

Perhaps therein lies elliottwavetechnology.com's superior competitive advantage.

Elliott Wave Theory is a superb "forecasting tool" in all time frames. However, when the rubber hits the road, there is a whole lot more required to be successful in consistently extracting profits from the marketplace.

Anyone may acquire a particular set, or even a full treasure chest of tools. However, it remains exclusively, the resident skill that one acquires over time in using such an arsenal of weapons in a most lethal and consistent fashion.

A savant may memorize every rule forward and back of Classic Elliott, Neowave, and Neely River COMBINED!

This would be utterly amazing, however WE WOULD EAT HIS BREAKFAST, LUNCH, AND DINNER, EVERY DAY, ALL THE TIME, UNTIL HE EXPIRES.

Such a savant would still- more likely than not quickly "lose his shirt" in the bitterly harsh, and unforgiving environments of the winner-take-all trading arena.

In essence, you might say we are one degree of trend ahead of Bob, and Glenn (whom we greatly admire and respect) in that we've never "given up" on Elliott in "making money" simply because we've never relied exclusively upon it to do so.

In studying the manner by which we "firmly corner" the price action and convey our guidance, I trust you will comprehend the powerful comparative advantages to which I speak.

As luck has it, NOW happens to be an ideal time to make such an evaluation.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID676791

Joseph Russo

Elliott Wave Technology's
NEAR TERM OUTLOOK for the NDX-100:
Friday December 8, 2006

30-minute study (9th chart down # 5bbbb)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID676791

Yes, we realize this is a busy chart however, all trendlines bare significant 'trigger' potential in the shortest of time frames. First off, traders short the 12-5 probe are doing quite well thank you. A rather nice position to be in, especially coming off the previous 12-1 long side trade from the 1760 levels. Quite a fine hour to convey the immense power of EWT's NTO and Day Traders Perspective. That said, the NDX is nearing ST levels of oversold that may soon usher in a snap-back. Keen observance of RSI behavior will offer queue's for aggressive ST traders to key off. Nimble traders should watch this closely. R-1 is key to locking in well-deserved short-side profits. Further, a plethora of additional exit targets are dispersed deep along the right side of our chart.

cstradingman

10 year note yield set to backtest the lower trendline of the triangle breakout. Then rates should start to head lower again. Time to start loading back up with bonds.

MKB

> Yes, we realize this is a busy chart however

Yes. That is an understatement. I see lots of labeling, but also lots of hedging about the current call. You label 1824 at "5", but don't know if the structure since December 6 is a 1-2-3 or an a-b-c? You give lots of technicals, but no calls as to what to do.


> First off, traders short the 12-5 probe are doing quite well thank you.

Yeah. Did you give a specific call to go short? A price point to short with stops and downside targets? Neely does that on his charts. Why not you? Are the downside targets of 1772 to 1758 the area to go long or cover shorts? Or go flat?


> Keen observance of RSI behavior....

All well and good, but ..... What's your market call, specifically, and at what price?? And that's just with this 30-minute NDX. How about the daily NDX? Are you long, short or flat using the daily chart? At what price will you go whatever? Don't tell me what has happened, I want a specific forecast/prediction. Please.

And then there's the Gold, GLD, and HUI charts. I assume you are longer-term bullish, since you have labeled the October 2006 low as "(4)" of "1" on the daily Gold with an upside target zone in the 686 to 725 area. I assume that's your "(5)" of "1" target, you are long on that time frame? When did you buy and at what price? You've got the HUI with a secular top in May 2006 and no "2" to be seen. You claiming the HUI has topped and is leading the metal by over a year? How low do you expect the secular (daily chart) 2 to go? And again, specific calls of long, short, or flat and stops on the Gold, GLD, and HUI for the various time frames would be greatly appreciated.

You are, after all, enticing us to pay for your service with these free looks. I haven't seen anything worth buying, yet.


MKB

Joseph Russo

MKB

Sounds like the only thing worth buying in your view, is either a total hand-holding (instruct me specifically what to buy/sell and at what prices) or tomorrow’s newspaper today!

We do not impart the former, and the latter is simply not available at any price.

Elliott Wave Technology provides non biased, objective, navigational guidance across numerous markets and time frames serving a rather diverse group of traders and investors.

I trust you will agree that someone holding a long-term position in the GLD ETF, or mutual fund is going to have a much different trading plan (entry/exit strategies) than someone day-trading Gold Futures.

As such, it is quite plain to see that one size cannot possibly suit all. I trust this addresses your questions with regard to “where are you long from” etc.

If we were to provide specific trading instructions with ongoing position management guidance for every time-frame and market we cover, our subscription fees would be well into the thousands.

The forecasting and navigational guidance provided is intended as a clear and concise roadmap of probable outcomes across varied time frames for traders/investors of all money management disciplines.

We do not issue "black box" blind trading instructions for novices seeking explicit and exclusive trade management guidance.

Making “market calls” per se is truly a waste of time in our opinion, and simply does not make sense. However, gaining full understanding of past price behaviors, then defining specific criteria and boundary protocols for future price action does.

Those willing to put in the work, discipline, and patience to plan trading strategies around the dynamic queues ever present in the market place are those who will consistently profit.

For those seeking more of the hand-holding approach, I would suggest finding a service that does issues specific trade instruction/management. I would recommend that those doing so make certain that the advisors objectives are in general alignment their time frame, trading style, and risk management criteria.

More experienced traders/investors, with a developed money management strategy, trading style, and general market opinion for the time frame and theatres in which they trade, will be well-served via the navigational guidance found consistently at Elliott Wave Technology.

MKB

Dear Mr. Russo,

I am not asking for hand-holding. I am simply requesting you to state your expert opinion about the future trend in prices. Are you selling a computer program that displays wave counts and what-not or are you selling your expertise (interpretation) about that display?

If you are selling just the display, then a novice would not be able to understand the nuances, so you are ripping them off. I assume you don't want the novice to subscribe to your service. An experienced trader totally understands, probably has their own trading system, and you provide no value-added service, so they would be wasting their money. I assume you don't want the experienced trader subscribing to your service.

I assume you are after the masses in the middle. Those who know what you are talking about, but don't need the hand-holding. Those who want an expert opinion about what will probably happen within a given time-frame detailed enough so they can take action within their investing/speculating time-frame.

For example using your Dow daily and 30-minute charts of December 8:


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p39219584703&a=89807690&r=627
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=16&i=p70039125234&a=92066849&r=60

One has to assume you are bullish longer-term, but there is an intermediate-term top (Wave 3). The display (Dow daily and hourly charts) imply it was on 11/17 (closing price 12342.55). One has to assume you are unsure about Wave 4. The 30-minute chart has the 11/22 intra-day high (12326.95) labeled as Wave 1 on a short-term basis, which is now correcting.

Ergo, your "market call" (assuming I have interpreted your charts correctly) would be long-term bullish, buy dips (down to 11,785) or a breakout to new highs, upside target 12,626 to 12,750.83. Short-term bearish, cash or short, cover shorts 12,078 to 11,903. Stop (go long) 12,394.32.

All I am asking is for you to specifically state your market call. Is that too much to ask? You do plenty of "what happened" chatter. Less back-looking commentary and more forward-looking market calls would be worth something. Provided, of course, that the forward-looking commentary turns out to be correct. Naturally, a market call that is so wish-washy as to be deemed correct regardless of what prices do is worthless.

MKB

cstradingman

Bull market in bonds getting ready to resume this week. We should retest the highs in yields on the 10 year One more time then rates will begin falling again. Stock bulls back to cheering the bond bull market. If they only knew why rates were falling! :) Stocks should continue to rise for the time being. Top in stocks still a ways off. Buy bonds on any weakness here. 10 year note will be in a bull market until yields hit at least 3.15% probably alot lower. 10 year not yield should not rise over 4.67% Set stops there.

MKB vs. Joseph Russo

MKB, great comments.

Score:

MKB 1 Joseph Russo 0

TTheoryFan

cstradingman - you might be interested in taking a look at this:

http://ttheory.typepad.com/rate_t_theory_summary/files/Post20061211.pdf

cstradingman

TTheoryFan --

Thanks. Definitely checking it out.

cstradingman

Temporary selloff in bonds on fed news should give a bond buying oppertunity.

Kraig

latest free NEoWave letter is out

1. go to http://traders-talk.com/
2. click on "Current Market Analysis Area"
3. click on "NEoWave S&P, Gold, T-Notes, & Euro 12/12/6"

cstradingman

My #1 reason we will see rate cuts in January was weakness in housing. The Fed is now seeing it and is preparing the market for rate cut by saying
"a substantial cooling" in the housing market. The bond market agrees with me and is ralling again! I am surprised stocks are not reacting better. The stock market already has alot of the rate cuts discounted. Maybe we are getting close to a top in stocks? But not yet. cstradingman still bullish on Bonds!

Joseph Russo

Elliott Wave Technology's
NEAR TERM OUTLOOK for:
Wednesday December 13, 2006


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID676791

It is our hope that many of MKB’s queries will be answered in the full read of today’s NTO, particularly from our commentary under the second listed chart.

Beyond this, we do not believe any further discourse that is non-constructive, nor respectful of our sincere and strident efforts towards assisting traders will be of value to any party, nor the blog in general.

Wishing everyone (including MKB whoever he is) the best in trading endeavors, and a prosperous and healthy Holiday Season.

Joe


MKB

> It is our hope that many of MKB’s queries will be answered in the full read of today’s NTO, particularly from our commentary under the second listed chart.
>


Yep. I had assumed you were providing a market timing service. You do not. Your statement (in the second listed chart), "We do not predict what the market will do next, nor do we bark out specific trading instructions" clarifies your service immensely.

Compare that to your statements on this blog last week. Such as:

"Our steadfast mission is [to provide] the most comprehensive, effective, and actionable forecasting experience available anywhere in the world".

and

"The forecasting and navigational guidance provided is intended as a clear and concise roadmap of probable outcomes across varied time frames for traders/investors of all money management disciplines."


Thank you for the clarification.


> (including MKB whoever he is)

It doesn't matter who I am, you were the one hawking your wares with such hype. I'm just a disappointed prospective client. Sorry I bruised your ego.

Regards,

MKB

Joseph Russo

What's with all the sour grapes behind the hidden curtain MKB?

Who died and left you "the advisor Nazi?"

Nothing bruised on this end, though it sounds as if you might have taken one helluva a beating in the past following blind trading instructions, or worse yet-your own.

Better you focus on your own business, and keep your incessant criticisms between you and your personal analyst.

GAME OVER…

rdneu56

I suggest another category on Yelnick - wars of the wannabe pundits...

Gordon Graham

People... Until each of you can show objective measures of your methods (not results), your bickering will never cease. Right now, you are all blathering about superstitious nonsense. So let's grow up and get scientific.

Serious analysts and traders might consider:

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals

http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Technical-Analysis-Scientific-Statistical/dp/0470008741/sr=8-1/qid=1166066415/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-5325212-4320830?ie=UTF8&s=books

Over time, this book will separate the men from the boys, the workers from the dreamers, and evidence-based traders from faith-based traders.

Who wants to be a member of the Flat Earth Society?

Good luck!

MKB

> What's with all the sour grapes
> Who died and left you "the advisor Nazi?"
> keep your incessant criticisms
> GAME OVER

Oh my. A personal attack and shouting. Is this an attempt to shift the discussion away from what you started? Away from the "free look" and what your service entails? Seems so.

You started the discussion by advertising your service on this blog. You are no doubt looking for new subscribers. That is all well and good ... it's a free country ... not quite on topic for this blog, but close enough. I guess. People on this blog make and discuss market calls. So I asked about yours. You claim you don't do market calls. I inquired about buy and sell signals. You seem to not do them either. I stated my opinion, but it seems you do not wish to discuss your "free look" or clarify the service you are advertising, or hear any comments. It seems you prefer censorship.

So I went looking to find out more about your service. You have an interesting "outlook" and forecast at the Financial Sense University and SafeHaven Web sites.

Equity Markets Approach Critical Mass (Sept 14, 2006)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5883.htm
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/russo/2006/0914.html

It seems you're expecting a GSC top in the DOW between now and 2010 from current levels to possibly as high as 20,000 followed by a "sharp bust" in 2012-2015 and a Great Global Rebalancing in 2017-2033 taking the DOW down to possibly as low as 3,000 to 7,000 (all times and prices subject to change, naturally), or lower, or higher, since, after all, prices are gonna go where prices are gonna go. This all from your graphic available at both of the below URLs, but the FSU one is slightly larger:

http://www.safehaven.com/images/russo/5883_d.gif
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/russo/2006/
images/0914.h15.jpg

I suppose that is an illustration of your long-term market call. I suppose you are advising your subscribers who invest over the long-term how to position themselves, you're just not letting us in on how that is being accomplished during your "free look" periods.

Same with the subscribers who invest on an intermediate-term basis. I see on your HUI daily chart the comment at the bottom below the green up arrow, "Yes, we did catch the last big 'buy' signal albeit early from 9-25 @ into the 285 low, with gut wrenching reversal to significant fresh lows seven days later". Well, I'm naturally curious how that "buy signal" was issued, since you do not bark out specific trading instructions. And since there is no "sell signal" on the chart, one has to assume your intermediate-term position is still on that buy signal. Correct? That looks like a great call, if indeed you had earlier published concise parameters (such as if this and this and this happens, buy) for that signal on an intermediate-term basis. But then, there is no "sell signal" indicated on the chart around the intermediate-term May 2006 top. One has to assume you would have been advising your intermediate-term subscribers to be taking some sort of defensive action during that time-frame. But then, and maybe it's because I've misunderstood you, you don't issue intermediate-term signals, per se.

I also found this post of yours on this blog from January 11th of this year:

((quote))

Regarding the DOW....

"Topped or Topping in Minor 5, of Intermediate(5)or(c), of Primary 5, of C-V, of SC-III, of GSC-V."

End of story.

((end quote))

(http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2005/12/do_not_cry_wolf.html#comment-12959)


That was the day of a top of some sort (11,047) and the DOW dropped to 10661 over the next six trading days. Some would call that a great call. Short-term. We're now in SC-V of that earlier count, I guess, although SC-IV never did drop below the 10661 level.

Anyway.... You know your stuff, no doubt about it. Working your way towards becoming an MTA Chartered Market Technician. I hope you succeed. It's just that the way you impart that expertise throughout the various time-frames to potential subscribers during your "free look" period has me curious. Many other market timers provide some sort of a historical record or current position/forecast during their periodic free looks. It gives people more data to help make a decision. You didn't have anything obvious, so I asked.

For Gordon: Thanks for the book tip.

Regards,

MKB

JerryC

Bears are taking one of their largest beatings in years!

cstradingman

Great time to be loading up on bonds during this pullback. Here's the stock rally I was expecting with low bond yields. Now we are finally getting closer to a top in stocks. Still researching time and price targets for the cyclical bull market top in stocks.

Shawn

CS, just curious about all of your analysis presented here about top in stocks. Do you have your own proprietary timing model, or it is based on your bond timing model? Thanks!

cstradingman

The bond market provides me with the main tool I need for timing the stock market. That's why I predicited a 'big drop' in stocks would not happen until after the long bond made it's intermediate term top in yields. I can say 'top' in stocks now because coming out of the june low (I admit) I was not sure if the markets would made new a cyclical high's, and of course they did. The last intermeditae term rise in yields before the one we just completed happend around June 1998 to October 1999. Soon afterward equites made a cyclical and (I predict secular) top in stocks. We just completed another intermediate term rise in yields April 2003 to April 2006. I predict another cyclical bear coming soon in equites (within a secular bear) just like in 2000. Combine this evidence with cycle analysis. I believe it is very low probabilty the June low in stocks was bottom of the 4 Year cycle, it was much to mild of a selloff. Also most cycle analysis points to a top in stocks in the first quarter of 2007 as making a 4 year cycle low. Third I look at sentiment. When yields were rising the begining of this year no one thought they would fall again in the face of Fed tightening. I was correct about a renewed fall in yields and has soon as I recognized the was in in yields, I went long bonds. I the next 4 months I expect the stock bears to completely dissipate, bond yields to stay low, profit forcasts to stay high, inflation to be reading low, the dollar to rebound a bit, gold to remain tame. Making everyone bullish. Then a top in equites with come unexpectedly. This scenario is playing out perfectly so far. Of course, if people were to look at long term valuation, they would see the stock market over priced by any metric except the Fed Model, which relys on low bond yields. So a top we be here in stocks between now and he end of March.

I will let you know when I am making a large purchase of Put contracts.

Good Luck!

CSTRADINGMAN

shawn

Good post CS,keep it coming!

shawn

CS, I think Tim Wood used to say the 4-year cycle is right shifted to 1at quarter of 2007. So far this year he is pretty good.

That beg the dilema -- the market better start tanking soon to have a low in spring 2007!

On The Sidelines

Shawn,

Is this Tim Wood a Chartered Market Magician? Can his judgment be trusted?

cstradingman

Shawn -- did you sse the inflation data today! Rally in bonds!!! NO inflation. Inflation is dead! I am making a killing in bonds. I feel like I am 6 months ahead of the market. I will re quote my previos post.
"I the next 4 months I expect the stock bears to completely dissipate, bond yields to stay low, profit forcasts to stay high, inflation to be reading low, the dollar to rebound a bit, gold to remain tame. Making everyone bullish."
And yes, I guess Tim Wood is on the same page as me about the 4 year cycle low.
A sharp drop fits my scenario. The Fed is TRYING to raise inflation expectations by threatening to raise rates and saying they are concerned about inflation to give them ammunition against deflation, which is unfortunately inevitable. The fed will be cutting rates soon. It will have little effect on the economy.

cstradingman

Shawn -- Also look at Tony Caldaro's blog. He is a long term stock bull. I just noticed he stop predicting bond direction. Because he is confused. He was a bond bear I believe. When bond bears become bond bullish a top in stocks will form. It will spook the market when they realize something is wrong. I suspect eventually Tony will become a bond bull. Then when he sees stocks dropping he will start to become a stock bear. Cstradingman is very bullish on bonds long term.

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