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« Prechter Predicts Petroleum Panic Peak Price | Main | Neely River Not Overflowing Yet »

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

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Sean

1) 3-month t-bill just rise to 2%, inline with FED's target. So we still have to wait and see where 3-month bill is going.

2) SP500 earnings largely (read something like 50%) derive from energy companies. Contrary to expectation that $160 oil is the "fundamental reason" to bring down stock market, I will say the bust of oil and commodity will bring down SP500 big time.

With oil going to new high recently, I have not see the commensurate rise in gasoline prices. Fact is, consumer is cutting down on gasoline consumptions. Companies like XOM can no longer have pricing power, but in the mean time get squeezed by higher raw cost of oil.

slow to cancel

...maybe a bigger correction from October to a major low in 2008 before the surge. A new low wouldn't have to mean anything more than that - a big 3-wave move from October to mid-2008. That's the problem...Even a new low wouldn't prove anything.

Dow Predator


"Neely stated today he is almost "certain" that his Big One is upon us. "

Gleenn "loser" Neely is back!..lets wait and see! if he is correct this time.
I wonder if he is going to answer again "Fuck OFF" to me when I write him and ask him about his failed crash count.

Odds are that bottom is in!.. As I said in early February.
As always, the market is the final arbiter.

lets wait and see!

Dow Predator

slow to cancel

No bullish divergence in the McClellan O. today - just the opposite - more breadth. This thing is picking up steam. Bottom for the year in late July or so. A hard bottom, like 2002. If not, we're still headed down to close the April gap+ in the Naz.

Percy

I take recent action with close below S&P 1350 and negative advance-decline figures to mean we are in a bear market until proven otherwise. Will be interested to see when and if the wave readers decide to get aboard the ship that may already have left port and how much profit they can extract from the journey. Right now they all stand on the shore. Neely with a hand on his canoe.

Bill C

I just want to say that we have a clear 5 waves down and three waves up in the S&P 500, Naz, and Russell 2k since at least '87. Although the Dow remains obscure the rest suggests a big move to the downside and we are still close to the most recent highs. A short position here is fairly painless given the potential for the downside.

Also, I know there are a lot of people who do not believe Elliott Wave has any value so I ask you why come here to comment? Why bother to ridicule something you don't believe in? Just leave us nuts to our foolishness.

da bear

i dont think that the Dow can go below 12,000 again without a lot of damage being done.

if oil does top soon then that would just mean that the economy is on the verge of collapsing along with the credit supply.

this would probably be bearish for gold as well, but perhaps gold will be viewed as the senior currency.

da bear

I.Sosceles

Neely is wrong. A DOW 11,500 may be in the cards before we head up, but, a crash isn't even close. Like Prechter, Neely's larger premise is wrong so his count, in turn, is incorrect.

min

Bill

Elliott works. It is the biased practitioner that gives it a bad rap. I come here to try to hear some effective, elliot forecasting. Prechter, Hochberg and from what I have read here Neely as well, are absolutely horrible market forecasters.

No one expects anyone to be right 100% of the time but Prechter and Hochberg get it right maybe 5% of the time (and a few years back I actually did tally this up from 3 years worth of their STUs, EWTs, and EWFFs).

Like Yelnick said their long term, (multi-decade) work is quite interesting, so they have my recomendation for those that are planning their grandchildren's future, but for anyhting else they are quite useless.

The fact they are leaning toward a major decline directly ahead tells me this probably won't happen.

I personally have successfully used E-waves to make some very good trades and one of my side checks is to make sure I am not on the same side of the fence as the above mentioned folks.

Showing contempt for Prechter and Hochner does not mean Elliott has no value. It's those goof offs' bias that invalidates the validity of Elliott. Exposing Prechter's lack of results is a plus, it shows people sticking up for Elliot as a valid methodology.

Dow Predator 2.0

Dow Predator,

You have posted here your predictions so many times and each and everyone of them has been wrong.

You are one to talk.

-Dow Predator 2.0

Percy

Bill, Elliott Wave Theory is intellectually interesting. As a theory one cannot help but be interested and think "this could work". It is so intricate and has so many different waves that it becomes an intellectual spider webb on which even practitioners get caught. I think it works at times for those who spend the time to personally understand it. I come to encounter such a person and experience. Also, as Min has posted, it is good literature.
EWI has basterdized the theory because Prechter has all those hangers on trying to make a living off his fading reputation. Even they might get it right once in a while. However selling advise not understanding Elliott is their game.

Jim

Re: McClellan Oscillator, Rob Hanna has a very interesting study on his blog that shows when the MO goes below -200 as it did 6/11, there is a high probability of a profitable index trade to the long side (note today's bounce). He looks for a "quantifiable edge" or "tell" for trades, thus the name of his blog.

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/

Plain_Ewaver

My count, FWIIW.

Top was Oct 31 (trunctated 5 in SPX & Dow) at 1553
5 waves down into Mar 17 at 1257 - (A)
1553 - 1257 = 296 - amplitude of (A)

296 * 0.618 = 183
1257 + 183 = 1440 May 19 top - (B) (bingo)

If (C) = (A) percentage wise, it should bottom at 1166 (= 1440 x 1257 / 1553)

Yesterday's (June 11) close low at 1335 was 1 of (C).
2 of (C) could perfectly go to 1365 (top of previous iv).

Jake

I check out this site just because it's kind of a relaxing way to reset my brain, sort of like watching informercials or taking a nap. I don't think anybody here is going to make me rich. I don't think there are any schools or theories that will make me rich. Eliott is hokum but it's a harmless, pleasant distraction and it's fun to see people prognosticate.

TObject

Yes, Jake!
Nothing here will make you rich!
It will make me rich, but not you :p

Jake

Very cool. Tell me exactly what you are buying and selling and when. If your methods are working, I'll start piggybacking and we will both get rich. Then this site will be a whole lot more than just a harmless amusement. It'll be a golden goose.

Eventhorizon

Regarding the chart, I would say the jury is still out on raising rates. In 2002 the 3 month spiked down then bounced up above ff before drifting back down below ff. Then it plunged again and Fed followed it down. Another bounce occured in 2003 back above ff before a similar drift back down occured. That time 3 month yields broke upwards and finally the ff followed.

So, right now it is too early to say. I suspect the Fed will hold for quite a while to see which way the 3 month decides to go. It is extremely rare for the Fed to simply stop and reverse without holding for upwards of 6 months.

My GUESS is the 3 month will drift further down like in 2002, but then I see deflation everywhere!! If rates do rise here it will NOT be due to inflation that the crowd now believes is here, but due to FCB's who will no longer support the US Govt debt binge. The repudiation of our debt will be the more likely source of upward pressure on rates, just as the mercantilist willingness to purchase our debt has been the source of downward pressure over the last 25 years leading to low, even negative, real rates.

The Dude

Event,
Where do you see the dollar going with the repudiation of our debt and rising rates?

Eventhorizon

Dude,

It all depends on what measure you use for the dollar!!

Since I have a bias towards a deflationary or dis-inflationary future, I would GUESS the dollar will strengthen against "things" i.e. the dollar will buy more stocks, houses and cars and airline tickets and so on.

I also happen to believe the idea of emerging markets de-coupling is bunk, so a slow-down here will damage emerging mkt economies, killing demand for commodities, therefor the dollar will also buy more oil, gas, gold, base metals, etc. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see an orgiastic speculative blow-off followed by a spectacular crash rather than a gentle reversal of prices.

But as far as the dollar vs other currencies goes: who knows! I expect Emerging market currencies to continue to strengthen relative to the dollar as those central banks rein in their inflation. They will have fewer dollars to buy as their exports to the US decline, also they may sell dollars in the ForEx markets rather than exchange them for US debt (the repudiation part).

As far as the major currencies go, Euro and Yen, I guess it comes down to whose economy is the worse basket case - they all have various extreme structural problems such as Govt debt:GDP, unfunded liabilities, etc, etc. Strangely enough I suspect that it will be the economy willing to endure the most economic pain that will emerge with the strongest currency! So far that seems to rank us below Europe but above Japan!

Just let me make clear, I don't trade any of this analysis - I just find it a fascinating intellectual exercise. As time goes by, the more I believe that economies are fundamentally chaotic systems that are too complex to predict.

TObject

Eventhorizon "As time goes by, the more I believe that economies are fundamentally chaotic systems that are too complex to predict."

Start reading about cycles - you'll find what is not that hard to predict ;-)

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