A weekend scan of ewave bloggers points to a consensus on the count alternatives:
- Wave 5 has begun, and after an inauguration rally Tues (and possibly Wed) we fall hard. Pivot is SP880. If 5=1 we bottom around SP625
- Wave 4 continues as a triangle, and leg e has begun, spurred by hope at the inauguration. The pivot for this whole wave 4 had been SP950, and we got pretty close to that on Jan6; hence the target for e is to be a stub, ending short, around SP920. If wave 5 then starts sharp, it too may go down where 5=1, or to SP600. If it goes down sloppy, we may see yet another ending diagonal and a truncated fifth, with a target of SP700.
- Wave breaks as an ABC flat, with B having fallen 61.8% of A and therefore likely that C=A, giving it a pivot around SP1020 (1004-1040). This would also suggest a wave 5 bottom around SP700.
US markets are closed Monday (MLK day) and might be light volume on Tues (inauguration). We should have clarity by Friday on which direction.