search elliott


  • Google
Share/Bookmark

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

FlagCounter

  • Where From?
    free counters
Related Posts with Thumbnails

« When To Stay Out | Main | 5 Myths of the Great Depression »

Sunday, January 18, 2009

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c563953ef010536e212b2970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Consensus Count Forming:

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Glenn Loser Neely

EMERGENCY UPDATE.

I am a MEGA loser!
You have been warned!

Glenn Loser Neely

Traderpro

Neely is actually pretty good, no one can call EVERY squiggle, but his general market opinions are spot on ... he trades with really wide stops, too wide for my tastes, but at least he is right on more occasion than Prechter. Stop posting your negative BS here dude, you are in fact the loser, because you have nothing better to do.

I think this rally will carry higher than most anticipate before continuing downwards ... AAII is still pretty negative too, the Obama hope rally could catch a lot of people unawares and eventually insolvent when the downside fireworks begin again.

http://traderpro.wordpress.com/

min

Earth to Loser:

So does "mega" mean you lost a million bucks trading?
Hang in there Loser buddy you can make it all back —one step at a time. Just don't go completely insane on us 'cuz that will make you vulnerable to the real deal.

Trailblazer

Just tell us how much u lost Loser so it is all out in the open. Must hurt though hey.
One of the main reasons everyone comes here is to find out what EWI and Neely are saying, not to read about your sour grapes.
Yelnick what is your view on gold?

Hank

Feb 9th is a bottom target ......

Harry

I haven't lost a cent to Neely and I think he's a bs-er, a con artist, flim-flam man, leech, parasite, snake oil shyster, etc.

Why? Because anyone with a reliable method would keep it to himself and become a billionaire.

Harry

It is a good idea to distrust mysterious, magical sorts of things, to question motives and jumps in or the very absence of logic. Even the most tested, reliable "truths" are half-truths, provisional models that are handy but flawed. This Neely Prechter Elliott stuff is hokus pocus cultish garbage. If one of them were a trillionaire, or even a billionaire, I might think they'd found something... at least something that worked for a while. THEY ARE NOT BILLIONARES. AND THEY MAKE MONEY BY SELLING SUBSCRIPTIONS. THEY WILL TAKE YOURS AND YOU WILL PAY FOR YOUR CREDULITY AND YOUR NEED TO THINK YOU'VE FOUND A GREAT, DEEP SECRET. THEY WILL PREY ON FLAWS IN YOUR PERSONALITY, DEFICITS IN YOUR CONFIDENCE. THIS IS BUNKO!!!

Wavist

Harry what makes you think he isn't trading himself? He definitely is. Why should anyone with a reliable method keep it to himself? That wouldn't get him wealthier any faster. It would just be pure selfishness for the sake of it.

tom

Harry,

Very well put and right to the point!

Neely is probably trading other people's money, not his. If his method is truly reliable, he would not have to sell subscription to suckers and naive followers. He would have sitting on billions/millions trading proprietorially for the banks.

Wake up guys.

Glenn Loser Neely

HARRY,

I AM BILLIONARE. I WEAR A WURREN BUFFET MASK.
I AM WURREN BUFFET...THAT IS MY SECRET IDENTITY.

GLENN NEELY LOSER

Glenn Loser Neely

HARRY

I AM BILLIONARE. MY TRUE IDENTITY IS WURREN BUFFET.
I WEAR A MASK OF GLENN LOSER NEELY TO HIDE FROM MY ENEMIES.

GLENN LOSER NEELY

Glenn Loser Neely


IMPORTANT UPDATE:

WILLY GATES = PRECTHY

HE IS ALSO BILLONARE!!

GLENN LOSER NEELY

DG

Harry,

This is seriously the most sterile debate ever. And, quite frankly, the reason it's a sterile debate is because you don't bring any information to the table, just opinion and generalization. If I were the CEO of a company and you came in and gave me a presentation "Why Elliott Wave is BS" by Harry and all it consisted of was your rantings as above, I'd fire you. If that's what you think, just go somewhere else why don't you? I'm sure there are plenty of "Guys who trade who are too smart to believe any of that E-wave BS" forums on the net.

As for Neely's "secret" methods, yeah, they're so secret he published them in a book and has a series of running questions about them on his website. You clearly don't even have a clue what Neely's trading approach is, just by the words you use and don't use to describe what you think he's doing.

What he's doing is working from the hypothesis that all market prices are the outcomes of mass psychological phenomena that play out in certain standardized patterns that exhibit specific shapes and have specific quantitative relationships to other standardized patterns both before and after them. Using the information received in analyzing these patterns, he then constructs trade entry and exit points based on objective criteria related to the patterns in question. The instant price invalidates his hypothetical result, he exits the trade with a minimal loss. In fact, the thing I respect most about Neely is that he will wait weeks for a trade to emerge, staying out of the market when there is no identifiable pattern with easily controlled risk. Where does that sort of patience fit into your simplistic notions?

Do you have a better hypothesis or method?

You clearly are generalizing about newsletters or trading strategies and applying that to Neely, whereas the only way to have credibility in this sort of situation is to have done at least some empirical work on the trading record of the individual in question. CLEARLY YOU HAVE NOT DONE THIS WORK SO WHY SHOULD I BELIEVE YOU OVER MY OWN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS? I have followed Neely's calls "live" for nearly 3 years and found, via Google, a good reconstruction of his track record dating back to the mid-1990s. How long have you followed them?

Were I to speculate on your motives, as you have clearly speculated on the motives of others, I would guess you are an asset manager who instructs his clients to "buy and hold" because "no one can time the market".

I don't know why Neely isn't a billionaire, although I have some suspicion it has to do with the way he position sizes, which is quite conservative, but if he's followed his own calls over the past 15 years, I'm certain his millions run at least into the double digits. If he's as right about the next three months as he has been about the last three, I personally will be able to attribute millions in gains to following his service.

Wavist

I seriously doubt Neely's netting an awful lot from his cheapo subscriptions when you take into account that hardly anyone has even heard of him, and how much it must cost to maintain his organisation. And I'm quite sure he is sitting on millions as it is. How much does one man need already? Also what makes you think that being a good trader makes you certain to be taken on by the banks? Most of their professionals are absolutely useless. It's all about connections and that kind of rot. Anyway I don't need to defend him seeing as I don't really believe in NeoWave myself. You wait until DG gets back! I just disagree with the premise, as there are a hell of a lot of successful traders who are self-employed, several of whom offer advice/training etc. In fact I actually can't think of an awful lot of world class traders who aren't self employed.

Wavist

Oh and using classical Eliott wave analysis I forecast to the week last years declines and set targets which so far have been pretty damn close. And Wavespeak's correctly predicted dozens of turns. Sure there are crappy analysts, such a subjective art is inevitably going to be full of them. Doesn't mean the principles don't have any truth to them. The declines of the last year have taken on a beautiful five wave form, absolutely textbook Elliott. That alone suggests it's worth taking a closer look.

DG

You wait until DG gets back! I just disagree with the premise, as there are a hell of a lot of successful traders who are self-employed, several of whom offer advice/training etc. In fact I actually can't think of an awful lot of world class traders who aren't self employed.

Posted by: Wavist | Monday, January 19, 2009 at 05:58 PM

Well, I gave a shot defending what I think is the most valid trading approach I've found.

My analogy to what Harry is saying is if I were to say "I don't agree with Einstein's Theory of Relativity" without knowing what "E" "m" or "c" stood for in Einstein's equation and didn't understand the concept of "squaring" a number. No one should take my disagreement seriously because I obviously haven't thought about the problem seriously.

DG

Neely is probably trading other people's money, not his. If his method is truly reliable, he would not have to sell subscription to suckers and naive followers. He would have sitting on billions/millions trading proprietorially for the banks.

Wake up guys.

Posted by: tom | Monday, January 19, 2009 at 05:35 PM

Oh, man, another person who clearly doesn't understand what is going on. I don't have to buy a subscription to Neely's service because his entire method is contained in the book "Mastering Elliott Wave" and on his website's "Question of the Week" forum. Everything you need to know to apply the rules he applies in his subscription service is there. It is then a matter of individual choice whether you want him to apply the rules in real-time for you as a subscriber or if you want to apply them for yourself. THEY ARE THE SAME RULES! This is what you guys don't seem to get and I don't get what is so hard to comprehend about it. Neely doesn't have a "black box" and in fact says they will never work once the wave pattern they were designed in ends.

How many other subscription services do you know that can say this same thing? There's always something "proprietary" about them, but other than keeping his current intraday counts for subscribers only, there is nothing proprietary about NeoWave. Nothing.

Glenn Loser Neely

DG,

AS CEO OF NEOWAVE GARBAGE I OFFER YOU A JOB IN MY COMPANY.

THE ONLY OPEN POSITION IS FOR CLEANING THE TOILETS....THIS IS A VERY IMPORTANT POSITION IN MY COMPANY, BECAUSE THE TOILET IS WHERE I "SPEAK" TO THE WAVES, AND IN ORDER TO HAVE A CLEAN PICTURE OF THE WAVES... I NEED CLEAN TOILETS!..
I OFFER YOU A GOOD SALARY AND THE OPPORTUNITY TO GROW IN THE GARBAGE...I MEAN THE COMPANY!

IF YOU BEHAVE YOU WILL RECEIVE A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO ALL MY COUNTS TOO.

PLEASE SEND ME YOUR RESUME IF YOU DECIDE TO ACCEPT MY OFFER.

BEST REGARDS,

GLENN LOSER NEELY

Harry

Somebody accused me of engaging in a "sterile debate" and asked if I had a "better method."

First off, my opinions are as grounded as any of the flighty, culty opinions expressed here. Just because I didn't say we're in "Wave Z of sub-fibonacci III" doesn't mean I'm less reasoned that the bs slung around here.

Second, I think it's pretty damed helpful to shout "You are buying horse manure!" to people who might just come to their senses if they hear someone say it.

Third, I do have a better method. I try to stay genuinely diversified (friends --lots of 'em-- all around the world is the best way... but gold and cash and practical skills are good, too)... I try to get a sense for when things are getting a little too giddy or depressed and I try to put things into historical context. I stay NIMBLE. And most of all I avoid like the plague people who claim they have a crystal ball.

Your Neelys, Prechters, Russells, Eliades... these people are selling baloney. They will take your money and you will get worse than nothing in return because you THINK they actually have some wonderful insights.

The best approach is to be mature and humble. Try to diversify and make your best guess and realize that NO ONE HAS A CRYSTAL BALL.

Those subscription guys are con men.

Min

Wow! Guess we are sitting right on top of a turning point. Standby for clarity.

Adding my two cents. I have found E-Waves to be a very useful "power tool" to trade with and like any other power tool it can help or hinder depending on who wields it.

Prechter I found 9 times out of 10 to be like the psycho in Texas Chainsaw massacre. The power tool gets used to bad results.

I was able to use this same power tool to 7 digit returns in 2008 along with many others I am sure.

A tool is something with potential. It takes someone with skill and common sense to wield it in such a way to acheive something constructive, useful, beneficial.

I could probably express this better but I am running short on time.

DG

Harry,

Another post filled with generalizations and, yes, in the way I was taught in school to analyze data, generalizations do lead to sterile debates because they are solely based on abstract opinion, not empirical data. Empiricism is the foundation of science, you may recall. I keep telling you from personal experience that Neely actually has made some advances in trading methodology relative to those other individuals you mention, but you, in your infinite wisdom, are willing to stick to your guns regardless of what someone with personal experience says. What admirable willful ignorance! Just like those dudes who told Galileo that it was impossible that the Earth moved around the Sun.

Since you mention gold, I will tell you that in July of 2007, Neely started saying gold was heading $200 higher from then-current levels.

Here is the e-mail he sent out on July 18, 2007:

For subscribers of the NEoWave GOLD TRADING service, July has been a very good month! Long from near the lows of the year, and with substantial profits locked in, Gold continues to move higher (as expected). To show you what we've been up to, the latest NEoWave Gold TRADING update is attached.

There is MUCH more action expected from this market over the next few months, so if you want to participate, go to...

http://www.neowave.com/product.asp

then scroll down to Gold TRADING service and press "Add to Cart." You'll be ready to go in a few clicks.

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc

Then here is the e-mail he sent out in March 24, 2008:

As a public service, on many past occasions I have issued general announcements about major market turns in the S&P, Notes, the Euro and Gold.

Today's announcement is on GOLD. Following last week's massive, $130 collapse, Gold has given us EXACTLY the move required top confirm the bull market is OVER!

As usual, with any major market call that is contrary to the public's belief system, this will come as a shock and be immediately rejected by the majority. But, there is no denying Gold has experienced its largest, fastest decline in over 10 years, which virtually guarantees a multi-year correction has begun.

If you want to be prepared for years of DEFLATION, not inflation, and you want to benefit from a rising dollar and falling Gold market, make sure to join before it is too late. Go to http://www.neowave.com/product.asp and pick the Gold service that best fits your needs.

Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.


I'm sure your "friends" from around the globe did as good a job timing the gold market, right?

I've got a half-dozen e-mails doing essentially the same thing, calling for the beginnings or ends of significant moves in the market Neely follows and nailing them within days or a few weeks of the actual turns. If this is "horse manure", well then I guess I like buying horse manure. Why? Because it makes me money!

Again, I'm only saying this in support of Neely.

As usual, there's a "Question of the Week" that deals with this. Please show me in here where Neely claims to have a "crystal ball"?

7/31/2006
Question:
Why does Elliott Wave sometimes fail?
Answer:
Many people believe Wave theory allows the skilled analyst to predict market action at any junction on any time frame, believing it is just a matter of spending the required time to determine current structure. Unfortunately, even the best wave analyst cannot specifically predict what a market will do all the time. There are times when wave structure is clear and times when it is not.

Structural clarity is highest during the early and late stages of impulsive patterns (i.e., wave-1 or wave-5) and the early and late stages of most corrective patterns (i.e., wave-a, wave-c of a Flat or a Zigzag and wave-e of a Triangle).

Structural clarity is lowest near the center of any wave pattern (i.e., wave-3 of an impulsion, wave-b of a Flat or Zigzag, wave-c of a Triangle, wave-d of a Diametric and wave-e of a Symmetrical).

To understand why, imagine you are driving a car from Los Angeles to New York City. The rules are you must stay within the boundaries of the United States, you cannot backtrack (i.e, you cannot go West), but at each juncture in the highway, you can take whatever route you choose. When first embarking, there would be a limited number of routes out of California, but the further you move out of the state, the more branches in the road you could take. By the time you reach the middle of America, you could be at almost any point in any number of states from the northern to southern end of the continent. As you pass the center of America, the number of available routes to reach your destination would begin to diminish. The closer you get to New York City, the fewer and fewer choices you have.

Wave theory works much the same way, which is why market action can be predicted so specifically (using NEoWave concepts) during the early and late stages of pattern development. As a market moves away from its start, near its halfway point, the number of structural possibilities is at its greatest. As the market continues its journey and approaches the end of its development, the number of possibilities begins to diminish, eventually returning to one.

As a result of the above realities of wave theory, during the beginning or end of patterns, forecasts can be very specific and accurate. Toward the center of any formation, the analyst must refrain from making specific forecasts and speak only in general terms (for example, "the trend is up"), but will not be able to predict specifically how it will get there.

Wavist

GLN keeps cracking me up he just never gives in!

Wavist

Anyway I thought it was Neoloserwave? How many have you got already?

Wavist

And as for Harry that sentence about being grounded has to be the most ungrounded so far this year. And as for his 'better idea' not only does it show economic illiteracy on a laughable scale in that having friends all round the world has as much to do with diversification as mowing the lawn has to do with business cutbacks, but holding gold and cash is not a strategy for making profit but for trying to hold onto what you have...this blog on the other hand is precisely about trying to make money by actively trading despite the falling markets...hence not a better idea...just a cop out

CHRIS P

THE ONLY WAY TO FIND OUT WHETHER NEOWAVE IS RIGHT OR WRONG IS TO LISTEN TO WHAT HE SAID. CAN ANYONE POST WHAT NEOWAVE SAYS?

DG

Chris,

It's a pay service, so I don't think it's right to post material related to current counts and trading recommendations. Yelnick sometimes posts the current view, though. If anyone thinks I think Neely has a chrystal ball, well, I just feel sorry for that person because they clearly don't understand wave theory or risk-controlled trading.

You are absolutely right, though, the only way to see if NeoWave does what it says it does is to follow its analysis through time, not to just say "a priori" that it doesn't work, which is Harry's "method" of "analysis" (which, of course, is neither a method nor an analysis, it's simply an assertion). It's like saying "50 angels can dance on the head of a pin", and then someone else saying "No, it's 60". OK, where's the proof in either of those statements?

deacon

the post election year chart looks poor here:
(http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090109.htm?T)
... by friday the world markets(all oversold now) should make a decision, tech normally leads the world and reporting this week are IBM AAPL MSFT GOOG

Steven_737

"It's like saying "50 angels can dance on the head of a pin", and then someone else saying "No, it's 60".......

not quite so, DG;

it is 55 angels; because it is a Fibonacci number!
you are a poor "angel dancing" analyst; I will not buy your trading signal service...

hahahahahaha


"so I don't think it's right to post material related to current counts and trading recommendations"

Neowave posts his recommendations every now and then at
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=45


so, if he himself does that for marketing purposes, there is nothing wrong to post his previous (older) analysis; it is a good advertisement, after all.

cheers,

Steven_737

DG

Steven 737,

I had seen those posts over at Traders Talk. If Neely wants to post his stuff, I agree it's a good advertisement. I'm speaking more of a personal preference not to post something I didn't create.

You're right about the 55 angels, of course. How could I have missed that?

Wavist

TObject you're a legend!

Steven_737

Upstart;


"The market is still headed up. As Rogue Poster and I discussed in November, the 22-week cycle low was made at that time. The low which is the half-cycle of that (called the 10-week by Tim Wood) is being worked on now."

At what point (i.e. price level) will you question your assessment based on the 11 week and 22-week cycle?

This is an honest question; I am not putting down your cycle analysis.

There might be a longer cycle that is going to bottom in the next say 2~3 months that has larger amplitude and may mitigate (or even eliminate) the influence of the cycle you are watching.

" I'm glad EWI and others expect more downside. This is as it should be."

you may have a point here, as does Min regarding Hochberg's assessment.

I happen to favor the downside, because the market expects and will get more 2008 disastrous financial results, like the Royal Bank of Scotland 28 billion GBP loss. Bleak sales and profit forecasts for 2009 will be coming almost everyday; that leads me to favor the wave 5 scenario evolving in the next few weeks.

I think that Hochberg and company will be off, this time because the bottom in 2009Q1 may not be as deep as they expect.

Steven_737

Min

Currently long NDX as of Tuesday market close. This is a "casino play" using some recent profits.

Wave Rust

c of 4 coming very soon,,, then the trunk'd 5th

dow still beating b of 4 like its a dead horse.

4's are so much fun,,, to watch,,, death by 1000 paper cuts

I told you weeks ago it was going to take a bunch of time

and 14 different counts

patience pays

wave rust

The comments to this entry are closed.