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« Santa Rally Rides Its Slope Of Ho Ho Hope | Main | Will The Real Market Please Stand Up? »

Thursday, January 01, 2009

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trader1

I predict if I follow the markets, I will make money
I predict if I trade what I or anyone else "thinks" the markets will do, I will lose money

Forkoholic Serge

I think 2010 may actually surprise to upside.
If you subscribe to BIG BAD Wave "C" from 2007 top we may finish Wave 1 of C
down by late 2009 and start Wave 2 retrace in 2010. It may last the whole year

Forkoholic Serge

Long Term Big Bad Wave "C" scenario 120 day chart
http://forkoholic.com/images/bigbadwavec.jpg

Canadian Money

Market Status Comments: January 2, 2009

The US Market, as defined by the DJIA index, seems to be in a period of uncertainty since the October 2008 low.

The index has generally moved sideways on a generally decreasing volume pattern. Two of the highest volume periods within this time period coincided with short-term downward moves by the index. Volume tends to go with the overriding trend.

The technical evidence to support a hope for a significantly higher rally at this point in time continues to appear weak.

CM

Hank Wernicki

One does not make any money on predictions ...... "NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE CONSISTENTLY"

Sometimes one gets lucky ... that's about it .....

I have no idea what 2009 will bring, but I know what the XAU will do on the Open Monday

That is as far as I can go ............ one day at a time ...saves me alot of energy


Hank

MT

Expanded flat:

http://i366.photobucket.com/albums/oo106/mtcharts/expandingflat.jpg

da bear

The DJIA is doing a perfect imitation of the rise from late November 1929 to Spring 1930. this spring may be the last best chance to sell stocks and real estate. last year i emphasized the Axis of Assets (physical cash, gold, and silver) and that seems to be the best portfolio in 2009 too.

We should know if the next leg down (Wave 5) is here or if it is postponed by this upcoming summer.

I believe the Dow Jones Post-Industrial Below-Average is in its third wave up of this Wave 4 counter-trend relief rally. Since wave 5 of three was rather short, the upcoming Big Wave 5 down could very well extend. for this bear market to be over the average investor has to throw in the towel. Operation Enduring Capitulation will be here sooner rather than later.

da bear

If you liked 2008, you'll love 2009!

DG

Following on your commercial real estate prediction, if CRE implodes, expect multiple public life insurance companies to implode with it and the ones that don't implode to reconsider whether they want to be public companies or remutualize. Mark-to-market really does kill these guys balance sheets since they clearly intend to hold to maturity and should only take marks in the case of actual default.

Alistair from Oz

Predictions are always interesting reading.

(Being careful not to stroke my 'Ego' to much)
In early December I wrote this about the "Santa Rally"on another sight.
(Anyone who is looking for an upward "Santa rally is a clown". Why because you should never trade against the overall trend. Statistically the largest suprises always come in the direction of the trend in a down turn. Santa rally is pie in the sky media hype to suck in loosers who are wanting to trade on hope in the biggest market correction for nearly 80 years. Santa rally proponents need their heads examined.)End quote
Between the 8 Dec and the 26 Dec the DJIA lost 480 points, Santa Rally was a bit of a dissapointment is an understatment, it was nonexistant. I conclude I was right. Annoyingly, head swells.

Starting with what I agree on.

The retest of S&P and DJIA carries the risk of a general market slide to much lower levels.
A Retest of the Nov Lows (Dow7449, SP741) by Feb. Possible but unlikley,as time has to be consumed in 4th wave.
Many bailouts will not stem the overwhelming tidal wave. Agree, bailouts have never proved to work in the last 100 years.
The retest carries the risk of a general market slide to much lower levels. Agree
Hope in Obama is extraordinarily high. Agree
Obama's first 100 days will be disappointing. Agree but this is irellivant. Obamas administration will need every day of four years to rectify the mess the US is in.
Seeing a serious downturn in the US in 2009, Agree
The Meltdown is delayed to 2010. Agree
The bigger shock will be a collapse in commercial real estate. Agree The first round of subprime like commercial real estate forclosures will rock capitalists to their very soul.
The inflation Deflation knife edge is very fine but Deflation not hyperinflation arrives, Agree.


What I disagree on.
Obama being the most signifigant player in the US economy. Dissagree.
I disagree that the US consumer savings rate will should skyrocket in 2009 because the US consumer personal debt levels on credit cards etc need first to be payed off before US consumer savings rate will turn around signifigantly. Paying off/down US consumer personal debt will take 2 years minimum. US consumer savings rate will should only start to make noticable posative, signifigant headway post 2010.
Oils bottomed at just under $32 US/B. It wont re-test it in 2009 or 2010.
23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8% and 100%
Obama has proved shrewd in aspects of caution and debate. He is also establishing a formidable team. I beleive he will set very good ground rules for those he appoints and Preside in a "hands off" style once he has charged his appointees. I beleive he will inspire a wide cross section of US citizens to participate in his vision. With this style of managment, I beleive he will be far wider in his reach and subsequantly far more productive than the Bush administration. He will prove to be inclusive not exclusive.
Generalization (After the type of fall we had, there is always a rebound in the range of 38-62%) Disagree. After the type of fall we had the minor fibonacci ratios of 9%, 14.6%, 23.6% and 32.8% become far more signifigant as they are a direct measure of how much downside there still is in the market.

Predictions.
Benanke with his devalued USD and higher Gold plays a more signifigant role economically than Obama does. Ultimatly its out of US hands as I beleive China Japan and Saudia Arabia could hold the balance of economic power over the US economy. The US has to work really hard at creating luxury export goods for Europe and Japan, while creating new trading relationships with Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Australia, China, Russia, South Africa, Nigeria as these are the countries that are now in its equitable group.
It is no longer competative as a leading first world economies of the ranks of Europe, Arab Gulf States and Japan because of a devalued dollar.
Gold backwardation has spellt the begining of the end for the US paper based currancy system. Some time in the next 30 years a Regional Currency system based on a precious commodity will replace global paper beased currencies. I surgest Asia + West Pacific as a region, Europe as a region, Asia minor (Arab states) + Africa as a region, and Americas (North and South)+ EastPacific as a region. This will satisfy the growing "Greens" conciance for 'localised' trade as being of higher socially / enviromentally / religeouslly / culturally responsible global trading mechanism (embodied energy per kilometre transported). Therefore there will be four main currencies traded instead of 150 currently. I dont ever see a singal world currency because regional relativity cant be translated to all corners of the globe in real time on a sustainable basis. Regional currencies like the 4 I suggest are more realistic as they give the ability to generate value concepts across realistic regional cultures and demographies. Enough on Backwardation, obstensivly its meaningless so far as the next 2 years are concerned.
Given that I beleive we are still in a complex 4th wave to the downside, the maximum rally (D) wave of a maximum 7 wave formation that began to the downside in Oct 2008 is 23.6% to 38.2% from the end of wave C. 23.6% means 9066 on the Dow. 38.2% means 10077 on the Dow. 10500 is pie in the sky dreaming of main street novices who have been marketed this dream by high street sharks. The main aspect of a corrective wave D is to consume time on the side. Wave D could last up to 210 days from Nov 20.
Maximum downside for the Dow in the next two years is 5074 (Dow @5000 scenario). Dow at 6892 is prefered.
Resources to steadilly slowly rise for the first half of '09 as they are still oversold.
Oil to $60US/B by Q2 '09 further complexing deflationary synario in a dollar devaluing enviroment.
Commodities like the grains especially wheat to rize in line with Oil.(Going long on Wheat continuous contracts in US dollars for the first half of '09 may have merit for US wheat farmers who want to hedge against a falling dollar and rising Oil prices over that period).
Driven by Benanke's weeker currancy stronger Gold mindset, USD to new all time lows against the Euro by Q2 '09.
Re Gold I'm looking for DJIA @5000 and S&P500 @500 points with Gold making a DJIA/Gold ratio of 1 : 5 between now and 2012. The maximum upside for Gold is $1030 and that with my optomistic hat on. Gold again toped out at $881 in its expanding triangle to the downsid and may well already be on its way to retest $650. (I still expect it to 1:5 ratio. Once it achieves 1 : 5 then concider continuous contract shorts on Gold. Once Golds achieved 1 : 5 done that it will return to @300 an ounce LTA's.
The greater the pressure the US can keep on low Oil prices the better/sooner your turn around in your economy will be, however I think Oils going back up to oscilate between $60 and $75 $US/B. If worst USD scenario happens then concider oscilation range to be between $75 and $100 US/B. Buy Buy cheap Oil.
Enough from me its late over here.
I welcome those who want to keep me accountable.

johnnyironboard

I predict Russia's oil production will decline, Norway's will decline,Mexico's will decline, UK's will decline, Canadian tar sands expansion will stop dead in its tracks, Polar oil development will stop,Deep Water developments will be postponed, Venezuelean production will be a disaster- a Country whose average well is 50 BOPD and have kicked out the foreign engineering staffs will learn what decline really is. I predict if Saudi Arabia does not cut back on production from Ghwar is will start declining within a year(when the biggest oil field on Earth starts declining look out)- If given all of that the price of oil stays low then the world will indeed just be sitting at home and doing nothing.

joe

i tend to agree with your overall veiw
and i also think june 10 august 2010 is a major turning point
which most likely will be a top . interest rates i dont think
are finished falling . the reason is simple , long trends tend to
end with clean 5 wave moves and the bond market has been trading
in 3 wave movements since 1980, looking at a monthly chart we have so far
1 2 i ii iii and were now in wave iv of wave 3 . next looking at the dow
from 1932 to today based on price alone the recent decline has not
dont anything out of the norm over the previous bear markets from the
technicals i look at . in fact on nov 20 th 2008 the dow was more oversold
then 2002 yet not more oversold then 1974-1975 bear market , to add to this
the nasdaq fell about the same percentage drop and the 1937 bear market not
worse then the 30's as the media would have us think . the dow never broke
below the 2002 lows and the transports also held up very well when compared
to the other indexes . this leaves some bullish divergences with in the indexes
now the wave 4 scenerio . i tend to think we are in a 4th wave also which implies
new lows yet taking the market at face value and considering my own technicals i follow
we got extremely oversold and the dow has fallen in 3 waves the 10514-10630 price area
does seem like a likely area of resistance yet the 9941-9977 area is very important to me
right now im looking for the dow as well as the stock market in general to finish off this
a b c move from the dec 29 lows in an abc type move . we may go down hard into jan 7-8th
2009 then bounce up into jan 14th 20th then down in wave b then bounce into mid febuary to complete wave 4 then wave 5 would head down into mid to late march 2009 for a final bottom
yet what if the dow fails to make a new low ?? then were stuck with only 3 waves down
and that leaves the 2000 top as wave 3 the 2002 low as wave a the 2007 top as wave b
the 2008 low as wave c of an 8 year a b c formation . this could then turn into c d e
and if thats the case were looking at new all time highs into 2018 2021 .
1932 plus 89 is 2021 (bottom to top ) 1966 plus 55 is 2021 ( top to top )
1987 plus 34 is 2021 ( top or bottom to top ) 2000 plus 21 is 2021 ( top to top )
2008 plus 13 is 2021 ( bottom to top ) what does this fibonaccii series have to do with the market today ?? 1932 was major low 1966 was major top 1987 was major crash event top and bottom
which was also 55 years from the 1932 low .2000 was major top and by media standards 2008 goes
down as the worst market in history .
the benner bussiness cycle which many dont follow calls for a top in 2010 and a drop in 2011
followed by a rise into 2018 .
the question for debate is what if the dow went sideways for another 5 years ? that puts into 2013 for the end of wave E ( big assumtions here ) this would imply a roughly 2 year cycle taking place going forward , 2010 some kind of top in wave D then down into 2011- 2013 in
wave E and then a roughly 8 year generally bullish inflationary rally into 2018 2021
and then a huge decline back to 800 on the dow from a price area of 18000 to 27000
now back to the real world we have have 3 waves down and we are supposed to be in a wave 4
wave 4 should peak in the area of 9941-9971 max into mid february at the latest then
wave 5 down into mid to late march in wave 5 to the 7102-6800 area . then we bounce
upwards into at least june 2009 in wave A back down into either oct nov 2009 in wave B
or we go down into january feb 2010 in wave B then begin a rally . to sum it up it is complicated and untill we see just exactly how the market moves i think it is wise to keep the variables open . as for gold i tend to agree that it will turn down and i also agree on oil below 28 bucks . gold has a 13 year cycle which points to february 2009 as its next turn
so far it has been holding up and while im bearish gold im waiting untill february before
i take a strong bearish stance on it . oil , oil looks like it formed a 4 th triangle foramation from the lows in 1985 so a moove back to the point of origin would imply
10 bucks on oil as a minimum .
i got a bit carried away but that is my thinking going forward
www.tradersaffiliates.com

TObject

joe,
interesting Ferrera has 2021 as a low, with SPX going to negative 200 ;-))
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/stock-market-forecast-30-10-08-image001.jpg

Hank Wernicki

Monday Fractal Update:

Gold is down over $27.00 << XAU will dive on the Monday Open and go lower as stated on Friday

Cheers

Francis Schutte

I can absolutely NOT agree with the author's predictions for 2009. I think he is makes some very basic errors.

Barry

I follow your site regularly and this is my first comments ever. I agree the rally of retracement should get underway fast. I also think if Obama does what he has promised and does not sugar coat it too much US is either headed for hyperinflation or deflation either way there is going to be a huge expansion of deficit. Who buys the US deficit overseas investors or the local economy will determine if we have hyperinflation or deflation as predicted by Martin Armstrong in his recent communication.

Barry

nmelendez

Dollar devalued by 80%

S&P @ 300

Banks holding 7 trillion of Feds US dollars will turn GDP to 70 Trillion, 10:1 Hedge (Hyperinflation)

S&P to jump from 300 to 1500 in two weeks

Total future US debt @ 53 Trillion with a 70 Trillion GDP, no more GDP problem

S&P goes to 15000 in 50 years

Enjoy the ride. :)

Al from Oz

Oil being the most impotant commodity on the boards, the 1300 % rally to the upside over the last 2 years showed that there was goin to be one of the greatest declines in the most important commodity for industry in history and sure enough we saw a 78% collapse in 5 months and 9 days to the $31.80 recent low. Never in Commodities history has there been been a bear market that has been completed in a single leg down. Have changed my position on Oil. With the recent volitile 54% rally to the upside and subsequent colapse in Oil price I am certain that the $31.80 Oil low will be broken to the downside.
Your right Duncan $28 Oil is possible, I was wrong about $32 Oil being the bottom.
Cheers
Al

mike jay

In general, i don't disagree, i have done my own forecast about every 18 months you can see what i think here: http://www.mikejay.com/2008/forecast the wildcard is psychology, we're not rational, so if we forecast based on rational economics we will most likely mis it in most ways...

the only real question i have is, are we near an inflection point in consciousness, or consumer psychology because of Dent's 2010 prognosis, and the end of the mayan calendar, we have a number of psychic convergences that are occurring, and i'm not a believer, except that psychology drives the market, so something out there triggering the psychology, now that the tipping point in humanistic psychology has in fact occurred with Obamarama...we could have a series of yet unimagined scenarios as the "psychic virus" takes hold metaphorically....

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