Rally Scenario

Take a look at Tony Caldero's short post today: he reads us as having ended a wave 3 up and now are in a wave 4 correction. When it ends a final run to Sp1107. 

Dow has already touched its 50% retrace intraday (yesterday), so unclear what more it has to give, but if it does run over the next few trading days Dow10500 is a good end since it is where the first wave up (Mar-Jun) = this wave up (Jul-now) and is at the confluence of where the Obama Hope Rally uptrend line (the O line) meets the Bush Fear Crash downtrend line (the W line). See chart, courtesy yesterday's STU.  Note that tomorrow (Nov13) through next Tues (Nov17) form a timing window where the length of O = 50% of W. 

Since in Tony's count wave 2 was a sharp correction, we would expect wave 4 (if this is a wave 4) to break in a slower and more complex manner - hence we would expect something like a spiky period over the next few trading days before a run up in Tony's wave 5. Such a wave up might end as soon as the STU suggests (by next Tues or Wed) or might go into options expiration next Friday. Too bad this Friday is Friday the 13th, as the one a week out could be spookier for the market.

Comments

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Tony might be right, although I don't know what he means when he says it should turn up shortly.

But, I do believe todays action should quiet those who say yesterdays thin breadth on light volume was good for their whazoo. (sic..sic..sic)

[joe]

Ned has a point there - "...quiet those who say yesterdays thin breadth on light volume was good for their whazoo"

Yelnik - it is likely to hit gap 2 on the dollar shortly. If it did - do you think, or not, there would be a short squeeze likely to begin at that point.

This whole grand super cycle stuff - I think you don't buy it either. BUT that a short squeeze could be a great opportunity to short term trade - I know you get it.

There is a good thing bad thing about using waves - the good thing is you can get a good feel for over-all direction, the bad thing is if you count on it too much you will miss the opportunity.

This is about what happens when or if it hits that gap right now - isn't it??

Joe

[Michael]

Ned, your reading comprehension leaves a lot to be desired, on a number of levels.

[joe]

No Michael - Ned reads just fine.

I have doubts about you though.

Joe

[Michael]

Tony Caldaro's comments are pretty clear, are they not?

[joe]

Let me see if I got this right, you actually believe things if they support your world view - but don't if they don't??

Is that right?

Michael - it is a very tough world out there - and most of the time there will be multiple views to take into account - to take the different possible outcomes and make a decision for yourself. To just reduce that mess into key questions is really difficult.

No - nobody has a monoply on truth - at best you get an input point that needs to be considered.

If you have many inputs, then you have a chance of getting a respectible answer - and when you get that, you better recognize there is only a probability of getting that right or wrong.

In short Michael - it is up to you to decide what is right or wrong - for you - and not necessarily anyone else.

I do wish you the best Michael - but be careful here.

Joe

[Michael]

Joe,

What is it about Tony Caldaro's comments in regards to . . . . "If we are still in the rally impulse mode, would expect wave 4 to complete shortly and then another push into the OEW 1107 pivot," that you don't seem to understand?

I think he's pretty clear about where he thinks the market stands right now.
Why is this so difficult for you to comprehend?

[twitter.com/DrBubb]

Can one of you more experienced E-wave counters please tell me why my 5-wave count is wrong here?
/see: http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/6352/aa1.gif

[joe]

Jesus Christ Michael - it is just an input - Prechter is an input, your wife this morning was an input - it does not mean any one of them have a "truth hammer" in them. They may all hold a grain of truth.

If you are a trader your job is to decipher - decide which is more true for some given length of time.

Nobody can tell you how to trade this Michael - you have to decide here - for you.

Joe

[Michael]

Nathan,

The gap up of Nov. 9th most likely lies in the middle of a Wave 3, and not in Wave 5 as you have posted. As a result, we most likely completed Wave 3 at the 11205.37 high the other day, and are simply correcting back down in a Wave 4 that will have fibonacci support at 1082.50 / 1075.32 / 1058.17 in the SPX before making another final rally up in Wave 5.

Go visit Daneric's Elliott Wave Blog for the chart of what I just mentioned.

[joe]

THis is true too - what may be true to me may not be true for you - and they may both be true - and both work for each of us in different ways.

I can bet a diamond position to be something on monday - you can bet the same position to be something on friday - and they can both be right - you understand that - the concept is more complicated - but you understand that, right??

Step back and think about what you are trying to do man.

Joe

[Michael]

Joe,

I think that your reading comprehension is as poor as Ned's is.
See if you can follow along with me...

1.) Ned stated that he did not know what Tony Caldaro meant in his market commentary when Caldaro spoke about "it turning up shortly".

2.) As Yelnick summarized, and as Tony Caldaro made very clear, Caldaro feels that the market is simply pulling back in a minute wave iv which will be completed shortly before a wave v rally back up.

3.) You said that Ned "reads fine" and I disagreed due to Caldaro's comment being quite specific and clear.

4.) Then you went on into roughly 12 paragraphs of bizarre drivel that had nothing to do with my point about what Caldaro was clearly stating.

Congratulations.

[Michael]

Joe,

You really need to put that crack-pipe down.

None of what you have just posted has anything to do with the "clarity" of Tony Caldaro's comments and Ned's inability to comprehend them.

You are making a value judgement where none is necessary. But then again, you obviously are unable to understand that.

[joe]

The dollar gapped down at 75.75 and it was filled. We gapped at 76.25 too - that gap is not filled yet.

We hit the first gap today at 75.75 - not the 2nd one.

We hit that second gap strong - and I think we get a major squeeze on the dollar shorts - and I think it is very soon now.

Elliot can point the way - that is all it can do, and that is a lot. It is unreasonable to expect more than that.

Joe

[joe]

Alright Michael - If that is what you choose to believe.

I don't write in 12 paragraph stanzas - and I don't make judgements of people.

I am sorry you feel the way you do. But I do wish you well.

Joe

[Eventhorizon]

Oh my, now Joe is being sucked in to the Michael highschool debate club quicksand. Say high to DG if you see him in there!

[joe]

Hmmm - you may have a point eventhorizon - and a good sense of humor.

I extract myself - "devil be gone" -

Joe

[yelnick]

Joe, I think Prechter is off by a degree in his count and has been since he began the Lost Decade from 1995-2004. Specifically, the top in 2000 looks more like a wave 3 end not a wave 5. I count from a bottom in 1949 not 1932, and see 49W1 to 66, 49W2 to 82, 49W3 to 00, and we are in 49W4. This leaves a 49W5 to go, something like 2017-2035; and to much higher levels. Also, this means 49W4 is NOT likely to go as low as Dow400.

Depending when we began 49W3w3, we normally would fall to the 4th of the 3rd of 49W3. If 49W3w1 went to 87, it seems 49w2 ended in 91 (Neely/Zoran would end it in 94), and then we began w3. The 4th of that 3rd is easiest to count around 97, with w3 ending in 98, and then we had 49W3w4 and w5 in the final Y2K rally from 98 to 00.

The implication of this is we have already gone back to the 4th of the 3rd, and may retest but not break the March lows.

Another reasonable stopping point is the takeoff of the dot-com bubble, or 1995. This would target Dow4000. The Wave Theory guideline is that manias tend to retrace to their start, or put differently extended waves tend to retrace to the start.

Prechter counts this as starting in 1932, with 32W1 to 37, 32W2 to 42, 32W3 to 66, 32W4 to 74, and then 32W5 an extended fifth wave to 00. This count makes 1987 32W5w4, and he thought 1994 was the end of 32W5w5 and indeed the end of the whole move from 1784 to 1994. (Read At The Crest of the Tidal Wave and listen to da bear's comments about diagram 5-7.) He missed the dot-com bubble after that, and thought the fall off 2000 was a start of a huge 100 year bear market. He didn't adjust until 2005. That is why I call 1995-2004 his Lost Decade.

To be fair to Prechter, his wave interpretation follows a normal guideline: often an extended wave replicates as a fractal the larger wave structure. If we see 1995-2000 as an extended fifth wave within a fifth wave (Prechter's 32W5 which began in 74), it has a nice symmetry. He has two primary technical reasons for this count: the wave up from 33-37 divided as a 5, and what followed is not a zigzag, hence should be a wave 1 (a flat or triangle would have been a "3" not a "5:); and the 3rd wave from 42-66 had better fundamentals and broader participation than the wave from 74-00. In the Constant-Dollar Dow, however, Prechter has said that he would change his count to what I laid out or something close to it. The 1929 wave down when adjusted for inflation/deflation didn't end until 1949, and therefore the 2000 top ended a wave 3 not a wave 5.

It is my interpretation of waves that over longer time frames it is better to use log scales not linear, and better to use inflation-adjusted levels not nominal. Hence I do not believe we are in a P3 to ungodly low levels, and I expect a rockin' wave 5 ahead in the '20s. I also believe that if Prechter had embraced his inflation-adjusted count, he would not have had his Lost Decade and his reputation would not have been subject to the type of scathing criticism oft seen in the comments to this blog.

As to the US Dollar, assume a huge short squeeze is underway, but - a lot of the shorts are central banks, and they have great resources to offload the risk for a long while. Hence the Dollar Index will not rise with the normal huge moves as shorts cover. A move from DX76 to DX77 would be a large move for the DX. It is a highly liquid market. So be a bit cautious applying patterns from less liquid markets to this one! Nonetheless, over the next couple of years (NOT weeks NOT months) the DX should move from the bottom (DX74.77 so far) to above DX90.

[joe]

Michael- I think you mean well - and I will not wish you ill. Everybody has some thing they have to deal with, and nobody can judge that load.

No one can judge anyone who did not walk in the shoes of the person they pretend to judge.

I have been on the end that did hurt people once - for christ sake Michael - don't be on the recieveing end - you don't have to be.

To the extent you are - it will not be at my hand.

I think you are a decent person - from every post I have read by you - you are.

I think - this is not something people are going to be able to walk away from here. Make sure you will be able to "walk away" if you have to.

This is not an elliot wave count Michael - it is a reality count here - assuming I was ever as good as people thought I was once.

If you are a "high school delinquent" - so was I - and I liked it that way.

Don't get hurt here Mike - a lot of people are going to get hurt here - from both "camps" - as it were.

Joe

[cloudslicer]

Would it not be wise to just count the waves on the USD and let that drive the wave count for S&P 500? Is it logical to assume that if the dollar bottomed that any upside in the market would be limited at best?

[yelnick]

Cloud, it is an input and an important one. View the rise in stocks as having three drivers: massive liquidity coming back into the market; hedge against fall of Dollar; and some glimmerings of better earnings ahead. A Dollar rise will likely cause a market drop, at least for a time; but the market will recalibrate. While monetary stimulus may have peaked, it is still extant; and while the private economy is moribund, companies have adjusted to the new reality and appear poised to increase earnings off smaller revenues and slower growth.

One key issue is that the market appears to have priced in a V shaped recovery, and so far we seem more in a U at best. I will do a longer post on this shortly. So if the recovery shape is recalibrated as well, the market could enter a longer corrective period.

[Hockthefarm]

Plus ca change,
Plus c'est la meme chose.

From Mish's board:

Exactly who made Bernadine Shimon think that she could buy a new house shortly after declaring bankruptcy and losing another home to foreclosure? The American taxpayer, that’s who.

Without a Federal Housing Administration willing to guarantee a $125,000-plus mortgage, this Denver-area schoolteacher’s recurring “dream of homeownership” could not come to pass. Shimon’s down payment was a tiny 3.5 percent.

This single mother is so strapped that she had to cash in her retirement savings to come up with the 3.5 percent. Her case was cited in a New York Times article about, not surprisingly, the sad shape the FHA finds itself in.
//
You have to wonder if Prechter factored in this level of insanity. I wonder if she chants in a church.

Hock

[yelnick]

Nathan, your 1-2 might count better if 1 went to Wed at 1061, and then 2 was the sharp drop Thurs; then your 2d gap would be the 3 of the 3. Indeed all three gaps would sit in the 3rd wave of 1, 3 and 5. Where you have 4 would be 2 of 3; and 5 would be the end of 3. The last two days are wave 4, which might be over; and we shall then have a wave 5 to higher levels (Sp1107 for example).

[joe]

No logic will be seen here.

Probably - in about 48 hours trading time this thing is going to kick in "high gear" anyway - and some people are going to get really hurt that I do not think should be.

"Is is logical..." - no, there is no logic in this - that is the point here - that there is no logic, no ethos.

An event presenting without justice due - a greek tragedy unfolding..

That is where we are.I can justify it as a trader - as an American - there is no justification.

Our fathers died for what again... to make sure Goldman Sachs got their bonus...Is that the way it is??

The problem to me is that your premise Cloudslice is too realistic -

And I think the people that made this possble may burn in hell.

Joe

[Greg]

We are missing DG for full house.

[joe]

Oh - I used to think years - not anymore - now I think days.

In the middle of a shist storm in 1987 - I remember waiting for the "people to come knocking at my door" - just as a young officer at the time. And all these years later I think, what a moron I was to even think they would "rap" at my door - with all those other doors open.

Joe

[Diamond Jim]

I am a great believer in waves, but I am also a realist. Did it ever occur to anyone that this dollar strength is being manufactured to quiet Asian criticism of a collapsing dollar eroding their dollar hoards. If so it began shortly before the President's departure and will end shortly after his arrival, say next Friday or the following Monday. If so we will have a very nice run on the short side. After that the printing presses will roar once again and we are off to the races until say spring.

[joe]

I think you have it about right Jim.

Joe

[da bear]

A dollar rally would feed on itself as shorts covered and would also spark panic buying by hedge funds.

Interestingly enough, if the dollar ran up 38% it would go to $100. Then a 50% drop, evoking the 50% devaluation by FDR, would take the dollar index to 50. Basically I am looking for a scenario that would shake out the gold bugs and get everyone onto cash just before a devastating hyperinflation.

One more point, the Figure 5-7 of At The Crest (a bigger version of 1987) makes
for a likely scenario when you view the 1929 to 1938 bear market
as a 5 wave decline with the primary 3 down from 1930 to 1932, wave 4 up to 1937 then a higher wave 5 low in 1938.

The irony of ironies is that that Figure 5-7 is the mother of all alternate wave counts. lol

da bear

[Hank Wernicki]

There are very traders who capture my attention ( if any ) but Fred is good. A few others on this board are also good.

Anyone who can get top ticks, you need to pay attention.

I was really impressed today with his fractal forecast .... good job Fred !

Keep up the good work .... we are watching ....

Hank

Friday November 13th
9:30 am

The Big Picture:

Wednesday was a 240m Parent Top for the SPX.

It's Child was on 10/15 240m

The same fractal structure exists for the Dow and the OEX

A PFE Sell Signal has appeared today at the same level as on 10/15

There is a "slight possibility" for another bottom AND THEN A FINAL RALLY FOR A NEW TOP.

Requirement here would be a bit lower for the market then the last thrust up.

It may or may not happen ....... ( the last surge to a new high --- it may be in already )

The Final Rally would only be a "Marginal" New High

The important point is that the curtains are closing.

SUBSCRIBERS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO SCALE IN HERE TO GO 100 % SHORT

We can assess the entry points during the coming week

There are a host of Fibonacci levels this Friday and into next week.

A defensive position is warranted for all the markets.

Investors and Traders should consider Cash or a Bear Fund

HOLDING STOCKS IS TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION

IF YOU OWN STOCKS HEDGE WITH SELLING CALL OPTIONS

Shorter term ( tomorrow ) for the SPX ----- we may have a 30m child bottom from 10/28 ( parent )

Almost Perfect in time and price

A confirmation here would be a big surprise rally

This may happen tomorrow, IF NOT, then a Fractal Reversal

Thursday's Closing Fractal : Perfect

There is also a 13m fractal pair bottom for the SPX for tomorrow

IF << it rallies to 1088 on the Open and then fails another slide down

[DG]

We are missing DG for full house.

Posted by: Greg | Thursday, November 12, 2009 at 06:38 PM

Just watching today, for the most part. I did post around noon on my blog that a short was a reasonable trade and had good risk-reward profile, given NeoWave logic regarding reversal confirmations and the move off the morning's high. With aggressive stop movement, that trade is already better than break-even.

[twitter.com/DrBubb]

Thanks for the comments, Michael and Yelnick.

I have relabelled as suggested :
http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/7079/nov09w.gif

It is more satisfying in some ways, especially putting the big gap in the middle at 3-of-3, and having the strong upthrust be at the end of a "strong" wave 3, rather than wave 5. Here's what I don't like about it the "new" count:
+ the wave 3-3 big gap has only moderate volume behind it (a sign of weakness, right?), and
+ wave 4 is stretching for a long time

On balance, if we get an immediate move up into wave 5, then this would be the preferred count. But if stocks slide from here, then maybe where I have wave b, would get relabelled as a "failed" 5th wave. And even if price do move up from here, a weak thrust, like wave 1, seems most likely. That may set up a move which aborts before SPX-1107, and could be a "failed 5th" of its own.

Comments welcomed.

[vipul garg]

whatever labels one puts on, it is almost not possible to break the low of 666.
so since there cannot be failed 3 wave , there isnt a 1 and 2 !
750 is the floor for any primary to grandsupercycle downmove!

[twitter.com/DrBubb]

"IF YOU OWN STOCKS HEDGE WITH SELLING CALL OPTIONS"

That may not be a good hedge, if we see a big move. Selling vol at 24%, does that really make sense.

A collar (using the Call premiums to buy puts) may make more sense, or even just selling down stocks.

[yelnick]

Nathan, nice. After a long wave 3, a truncated fifth is often seen, so that alt count is plausible. Rule of alternation means wave 4 should be different than 2; this can be met in time not just in stucture, so 4 could be slower & longer than 2. If it goes too long than the 'look' is wrong. Have you read Neely's book? He adds a lot more precision about the right look and structure of an impulse.

One last test: take the 2-4 line as is, and then draw a parallel line touching the end of 3. (BTW the way you drew the 0-2-4 line suggest your 1 and 2 are not right - 1 should be the sharp peak right above where you label 2, and 2 should be the down point that touches your 2-4 line. Then the 2-4 line also touches 0, the start of wave 1. Neat.) I think the top of the upper line that goes through 3 would point to Sp1121 as the top, or higher.

[tom]

DA BEAR,

Can you or anyone post the Figure 5-7 of At The Crest...for info?

I don't know what you are talking about without it.

Thanks.

[twitter.com/DrBubb]

Thanks for the tutorial, Y.! It's great to add to my limited knowledge of Elliott waves.

I have redrawn as suggested:
http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/6181/xx1.gif

Although my red circles at w.2 and w.4 show patterns which are virtually identical, if you stretch the window at w.4 to the green circle, then you get a longer correction for w.4, and a possible very brief "failed 5th" up. I am aware that Neely thinks waves must "look right", which is why I labelled w.4 as I have, and think that the w.4 must be end at/near Thursday's close to retain the "right look", and not be stretched too far.

To summarise : An important first hour today?
+ My preferred count suggests an immediate rally, which if it matchs w.1, will take it up to about SPX-xxx,
and if it stretches, then it may go up to the SPX-1121 level, which I understand is a 50% rally against the 2008/9 decline.

+ My alternative count, with w.5 written over my "b", would mean the 5 waves up completed with a failed 5th wave, and the market is set to move lower, probably in a powerful C-wave or Primary Wave-3 down.

Assuming these are the only two alternatives, we may know something very important within the first hour or so of trading. I shall be watch the progress of FTSE and the Euro for some clues about which way the market is headed.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>Oh my, now Joe is being sucked in to the Michael highschool debate club quicksand.<<

That's a good one.

--------------------------

As for my Tony comment, I was referring to his use of the word 'shortly'. That's extremely relative and can be minutes or weeks.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>>whatever labels one puts on, it is almost not possible to break the low of 666.<<

My guess is, this pre-judgment will cost you money if you trade on it.

[twitter.com/DrBubb]

Well... the market is opened now, and it looks like the downside path has been chosen

[Michael]

Tony Caldaro's count looks correct and anyone that understands the "minute" degree that we are in comprehends that the word SHORTLY does not mean weeks as "Joe" above has postulated.

Carl Futia who is actually a real TRADER that just happens to have a blog where he documents his S&P trades got long on this pullback and is looking for higher targets. He's been one of the rare "bloggers" out there that has actually made money from the long side of the market over the last several months. I would suggest that is because he is a TRADER first, and blogger second.

[Michael]

"Yeah Michael I do. I was a financial principal in 1987 - and frankly I always thought of him (Paul Tudor Jones) as a little worm - and that is exactly what he has proven to be.

You understand - I was a series 27 officer Michael - you understand that, right??"

Joe

Posted by: joe | Thursday, November 12, 2009 at 04:33 PM

Joe,

I must say that you have an incredible talent at not staying on topic or addressing the POINT that is currently being made. I couldn't care less about you having been Series 27 registered back in 1987. What does this have to do with Paul Tudor Jones and his current bullish view on Gold???

But hey, leave it to you to call one of the most successful commodity pool operators and largest philanthropists in New York a "worm".

I think that pretty much sums up the kind of person you are, not too mention the kind of knowledge base that you work from.

Good Luck to You.

[TJ]

Joe,

Wow, you called Paul Tudor Jones a WORM???

Thanks man for showing your true colors.
That's all I need to know.

You obviously are struggling with a lot of issues . . . And I think that Michael is right in that you are one very twisted person. I really wish Yelnick had an IGNORE feature on this blog so I didn't have to continue wasting my time reading Joe's garbage.

[VB]

Respected YELNICK !!

Warren Buffett goes on record today by proclaiming that FINANCIAL PANIC IS OVER.He has even proved his statement by making a LARGE acquisition.The largest ever he has ever made.

Do u think U R SMARTER than the Smartest Investor alive by Proclaiming a financial Disaster every now and then using all sorts of Wierd logic that come to your mind.Its ridiculous wht u r always a PERMA-BEAR.I fail to understand.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

VB, maybe you have VD. There is surely something wrong with your mind. I'm not even going to address you stupidity. Nuff said!

[yelnick]

VB, my ears are ringing from all your shouting! I think Buffett believes he is more than a mere investor, and wishes to help save the country. His purchase of the RR makes sense even if this is not THE bottom because it was a relatively bargain price. If he calls the bottom correctly he makes out very very well; but if not he probably believes any second bottom will not be much worse. BTW I have already applauded his move in this blog.

On the other hand, do you remember the classic 'smartest man alive' joke? It was originally written with the President, the Pope and Kissinger but I suppose you could substitute Buffett. Joke goes: a problem with Air Force One and a disaster force the three of them to jump into a small plane to get away. Along with them is a scruffy backpacker. As they fly off, their small plane gets in trouble and will soon crash. They look around and only find three parachutes. The President says, he would be pleased to sacrifice but the world needs his leadership through this disaster. The Pope says, he would be wiling to martyr himself but his flock is in trouble and they will want him to deliver last rites. Kissinger feels the heat, and said: "I am the smartest man in the world! I cannot die!" So he grabs at a chute, puts it on and jumps out. The President looks at the backpacker and says, sorry kid. The kid says: "That's ok. The smartest man in the world just grabbed my backpack!"

[Michael]

Yelnick - Just to add some perspective on Buffett's purchase of Burlington-Northern Railroad... it wasn't like he bought it on the cheap. He paid 18 times earnings for it. Hardly a bargain. The factor that made this acquisition "work" for Buffett is the fact that his cost of capital is quite low.

[VB]

Respected Yelnick !!

Its really unfortunate that u even doubt a person like Warren Buffett (who has an impeccable track record) just to prove your doomsday theory as correct.You think he is trying to save the US economy by putting all BerkShire Hathway shareholders wealth at risk.In short u feel he is risking is integrity for the sake of US economy.How is Buffets meagre 30 billion dollar bet going to save the US economy I fail to understand.I hope u could explain this assumption of yours.

Wht else can one say about you.You have surpassed all heights by considering Buffett as a FOOL.Well time will show who was a Fool.That day dont forget to look at yourself in mirror.Just for a reality check.

[The Ghost of Irving Fisher]

Buy, Warren, buy!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher#Stock_market_crash_of_1929

"In addition to his other endeavors, Fisher was an inventor and entrepreneur. He created and patented an index card file system (known today as the Rolodex) that led him to start the Index Visible Company, which merged with Kardex Rand in 1925 and later became Remington Rand. The company made Fisher very wealthy. Yet for all his knowledge of economic theory and markets, Fisher suffered huge declines in his personal fortune and his professional reputation in the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression, eventually leaving an estate so small it wasn’t even taxed.

His son estimated his monetary losses in this period to have been as much as $10 million. He continued buying stock well past the time it was prudent to do so. When he was finally broke, Yale University had to buy his house and rent it back to him to keep him from being evicted. His sunny predictions of a “new era” with continuing prosperity, even after the 1929 crash, lowered his reputation among economists as well as the general public."

Got a 100-year time horizon for your trading?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aUiSxIKig9o8

“It’s a good asset for Berkshire to own over the next century,” Buffett said in an interview with Charlie Rose broadcast yesterday on PBS. “You don’t get bargains on things like that. It’s not cheap.”

Sounds like somebody's trying to lower expectations.

[yelnick]

VB, get a grip. I applaud Buffett's investment. Good move, even if this is not THE bottom. At the same time, I get amused by all the guru following. Buffett picked up on value investing and has shown it to be a spectacular system in the hands of a disciplined investor. But he still puts his pants on one leg at a time. Just go back to his Dollar short when it rose last year. Oops!

Before you start off on presuming that I adore Prechter (or Neely or whomever), read this blog for a bit of time; or go back to my Wolf! Wolf! calls back in 2005. Or dip in anywhere. The whole point of calling this "Yelnick" (read About Me) is that all prognosticators/gurus/experts are bound to make bone-headed calls. Doesn't make their good work bad; but it does make blind followers fools.