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« Did Friday Pop Due to Front-Ending the Monday Effect? | Main | Reggie Bush Market Should Rush Downhill After One More Head Fake »

Monday, February 08, 2010

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Mamma Boom Boom

Could be. I was thinking of a few days of see-saw. But that's a weak prediction.

Hockthefarm

Yelnick:

If this is a big intermediate term move down into the 990's, do you think we can rally into the summer of disillusionment (and test the recent highs)?

My sense from you, Tony and McLaren is that it wouldn't surprise any of you.

As for your take on Pete, I'll admit I did have the rose colored glasses on. Nice to see him still movin though.
Hock

yelnick

Hoch, I still expect 2010 to be more a roller coaster ride than a sustained fall.

Brian

Meh, I don't think the PPT has really brought out the "big guns" yet. We have to wait until the PPT's behind the curtain shenanigans completely fail before we see the big sell-off.

Taz

With respect to our materials index here in OZ, it looks like it is tracing out a flat rather than the initiation of a new downleg. I am seeing something similar with our golds (perhaps an expanding triangle), so i think markets are safe for perhaps another 2.5 to 5 days. I suspect we will tag last week's highs but this is mere spectre on my behalf. Would prefer this outcome to put on shorts but the market rarely accomodates so perhaps we fall hard again inline with STU.

molecool

I don't see a lot of Prechter bashing here lately - seems like whoever was betting against him is busy covering margin calls these days - LOL :-)

yelnick

Mole, you been writing some great stuff recently. Love your site. The C wave to Sp1121 is still possible.

I think the bashers are waiting for another failed The Top is In! call, what I used to call a Wolf! Wolf! call. But this time he seems to have nailed it. Even if we get the C wave (of ii) back up, it won't get to 1150.

Hockthefarm

As the analyses draw to a close, we start to get a clearer picture of just how inept Bernanke is.

The sweet spot for government appears to be when the people accumulate debt fist over tit. The government basically just shuts down.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15730.htm

Quite the prediction for Japan.

Hock

Mike McQuaid

SPX upper trendline Oct '07 to May '08 was penetrated in Nov '09 and now being tested as support.

robert

Let's see. There are a) more bears to fleece, b) more bulls to fleece. (Hint - we have just witnessed an historical 60%+ run-up and, even after this fat lady clearing her throat move down the "dumb" money is still extremely bullish). The technicals are not bull supportive and the fundamentals gave up the ghost ages ago. Today is shaping up to be a short sellers dream.

trendlines

Hello folks, hello Yelnick!

I too agree that the top is in, but not so sure we gonna plunge all the way this week. Still keeping my options open. Here's the trendlines am watching for today in the short-term:

http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/02/s-short-term-trendlines-for-today.html

BTW, as long as we dont break 1045 this week, i'm keepin my shanghai chart handy :)

CrisisMaven

The markets will become ever more nervous. While in and of itself a Greek bankruptcy or bond default should -in theory- not affect the Euro as such very much, Greece being maybe 3% of the total. It, however, just as a Californian bankruptcy would reflect badly on the "state of the Union" as a whole so would the default of on EU country, coupled with the rising interest rates and thus further destabilisation of the remaining over-leveraged member states, make investors wonder when sovereign default across the board is likely. Thus they wouldn't commit themseves to bonds of longer maturity and that's the beginning of the end.

JT

The Athens stock index was +3.5%
EU help on the way.

Michael

Spain is the biggest problem.
They have the biggest funding needs and are looking at a pretty sizeable auction this Friday.

Dave B.

Carl Futia said today that he expects the 1041 low to hold and that we are now on our way to 1200.

He must be the ONLY trader/blogger out there looking for new highs!

Interesting.

Mike McQuaid

Quick-draw bears are failing to mention SPX support at the upper trendline coming off the '07 high. Support at 1029 on Nov 2 stands. The March to Jan rally has pulled back 22%.

Mamma Boom Boom

At the Friday close, technical analyst to the hedge fund stars, Charles Nenner, put out his long awaited sell signal on the S&P 500. From here you sell into the rallies.

The SPX is going to plunge 10-20%, Treasury bond interest rates are going to soar (TBT), and gold (GLD) has peaked out. There are tradable shorts setting up in all three of these markets that will run for the first half of 2010. These calls are the product of Nenner’s proprietary Cycle Analysis System, which he has spent three decades developing, and generates calls of tops and bottoms for every major market in the world.

Nenner sees a trading rally in the dollar setting up which could deliver a strong greenback until May, when we should then re-establish shorts.

The scientist turned technical analyst argues that major bull markets in wheat, corn, and soybeans will begin this year.

Farther out, Nenner sees a new major bear market beginning in 2013 that will take both stocks and bonds to new lows. Nenner has a long career that includes stints at medical school, Merrill Lynch, Rabobank, and ten years as a technical analyst at the notorious vampire squid, Goldman Sachs.

(yuk-yuk)

Mamma Boom Boom

Gary Shilling thinks there's a 40%-50% chance we'll crash right through the bear-market lows set last spring.

(yuk-yuk)

JT

Shilling has been about as bad predicting the US equity market as David Rosenberg, and that is saying a lot.

I can't believe that anyone actually reads his ANALysis anymore.

Michael

Mamma,

Have you ever subscribed to Charles Nenner for several months at a time?

I have.
He's totally worthless.

Dave B.

The shorts just got absolutely CRUSHED by that 10 handle jump in the S&P that started at 11:30am Eastern.

Ouch!!!
That must have really hurt.

DG

People throwing around names without any reference to track records is what's worthless.

http://cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

DG

I see the Bulltard Sockpuppet Chorus has arrived. Time to look for a short signal.

Mamma Boom Boom

Michael, ...no. I put all my subscription dollars into 'Mamma'. I was only delivering the message.

Michael

"People throwing around names without any reference to track records is what's worthless."

Agreed 100%

JT

"I see the Bulltard Sockpuppet Chorus has arrived. Time to look for a short signal."

Posted by: DG | Tuesday, February 09, 2010 at 08:47 AM

DG,

Thanks for the BUY SIGNAL buddy.
S&P just rallied another 7 points from your post.

Too funny!


JT

Dow +230 and SPX +22 points. Prechter and all of the "perma-bears" getting CRUSHED once again!

DG

What do I care what it does when I'm not in the market? That's why I said "look for" a short signal, not "I think my pre-existing short trade will do well now that the idiots have shown up". In fact, here is what I said about yesterday's short signal:

"Short on the SPY and IWM triggered by price but not time. I am going to make the assumption that this means the signals are going to fail, i.e. the downtrend is not ready to resume, and stay out for now."

I also laid out the conditions for entering a short today. They weren't hit, so I remain on the sidelines.

The next trade is short, though, so if you weren't long before this pop, what does it matter that it popped? Chasing the market here is pretty stupid.

Oh, yeah, I forgot, you're always magically long when the market goes up. I'm sure that some of the traders here would love to know that in real-time.

I will post my next short trade in real time. We'll see if it works or not. Could happen today, even. Apparently, the signal will come from at least 7 points higher, which is fine by me.

Keep trying to denigrate my trading, though. Maybe one of these days, one of your criticisms will actually stick.

Ed

Regarding Nenner, I too took his crap for 6 months and its not worth the bandwidth he uses to send out the email....

Michael

Ed,

I found that Nenner's parameters were so "broad" that you could have driven a truck through them. His analysis was indeed worthless to anyone that traded. He was lucky to get booked on CNBC. If not, none of us would have ever heard of him.

JT

"What do I care what it does when I'm not in the market?

Keep trying to denigrate my trading, though. Maybe one of these days, one of your criticisms will actually stick."

DG,

Trust me, no one really cares what you say or do... especially after your post of last week where you claimed that you were BOTH long and short the S&P at the same time.

You keep telling everyone here that you are going to stick to your blog and stop posting here, and save us ALL from those 7-12 paragraph defensive rants that you go on time after time after time... but you are still here "babbling" about your trading "methodology" which you do nothing but defend, yet never share or clarify.

You add nothing positive to Yelnick's blog.


DG

"Trust me, no one really cares what you say or do... especially after your post of last week where you claimed that you were BOTH long and short the S&P at the same time."

Both of those trades were profitable. You have something against profitable trading? That's odd, for someone constantly calling attention to the fact that he's a TRADER.

"You add nothing positive to Yelnick's blog."

And what do you add? Seriously, I'm curious how you view your posts, because from where I sit, I see nothing but after the fact bragging about long trades, EWI-bashing and the inevitable "Shorts getting CRUSHED" one-liner when the market is up 10 points. In fact, one of the major benefits of the return of the bear market will be your disappearance from this blog.

"You keep telling everyone here that you are going to stick to your blog and stop posting here"

Wrong AGAIN. I said I wasn't going to argue methods and get into that kind of theoretical debate. I like posting trades here precisely because you b*tch about it.

Anonymous

Dude,

You obviously don't TRADE the markets. If you did, you would be busy trading and not spending all of your time here responding to anonymous internet posters.

The fact that you spend so much time on here pissing away your time . . . tells everyone that you don't place much VALUE on your time.

It's easy to see that.

Mamma Boom Boom

GERMAN SPOKESMAN: GRΣΣK BAILOUT RUMORS ARE "UNFOUNDED"

Dan Rather

Mamma,

You are about 45 minutes late with that announcement. I suggest that you try subscribing to Reuters or Bloomberg.

Jay

"Dow +230 and SPX +22 points. Prechter and all of the "perma-bears" getting CRUSHED once again! Posted by JT

DG,

There's no point in even responding to this Jackass(whose idiocy is like clockwork). The simple fact that he has to wake-up to his own ignorance every single day, should be all the retort you need. Seriously, could you imagine having to wake-up every single morning, look in the mirror, and suffer the indignity of what JT sees. Da Horror!

Riordan

JT and DG--

You are both fascinating and provocative thinkers who have made my life richer through your contributions to this discussion. You also have more in common than you know. It can help to accept criticism without taking it personally or trying to direct new criticism in a personal way. Together, your market views will be sharper and more profitable. Compete with each other but cooperate, too. And enjoy the ride!

As for me, I see the bull market resuming now and --with a few blips, bumps, and glitches, breaking Dow 15,000 by the end of 2011. We have had a correction and it was a doozy and now it is time to start investing in

gold
green energy
small food distributors
and
Toyota, which is still the best car company bar none.

Riordan

DG

"You obviously don't TRADE the markets. If you did, you would be busy trading and not spending all of your time here responding to anonymous internet posters."

Dude, I trade index ETFs ONLY, so it's not as if I'm trying to juggle a list of 30-40 individual stocks to trade. It can take hours or even days for a trade to set up. If you trade another way, that's cool, but I don't see how YOUR method of trading is the ONLY method of trading and since YOU do X,Y,Z, EVERY trader must do X,Y,Z.

Do you understand my point or is it too complicated for you? It's a "yes" or "no" question, so your response won't take you away from your TRADING for too long.

DG

Jay,

Yes, I find it hard to consider someone credible when they come here and post under 5 or 6 different usernames (ever notice the same picture beside all of those different usernames? And the same CAPITALIZATION style, regardless of the picture?).

Post under 1 name, already.

That, the lack of anything resembling real-time trade notices and the propensity to bash any and everyone, make for a trifecta of annoying traits.

Canadian Money

The small rally in the SP500 over the last few days continues to be well within the scope of a downward moving impulse wave.

Mamma Boom Boom

Mr. Rather, I must apologize for being tardy with that report. Please provide your email address so that I might run potential headliners past you for approval.

Thanks so much, in advance.

DG

Under 107 SPY is a short, but not above. Even better is below 106.4 by the end of the cash session.

Dave B.

Getting back to EWT... where do the wavers have the end of this 1-2, i-ii terminating?

Riordan

Dave B., we wavers don't see a 1-2, i-ii. It's probably a wave 4. Maybe primary. Read "Elliott Wave Theory" to learn how to construct waves using EWT or you'll be all WET.

Dave B.

Interesting.
I guess Hochberg is all WET then.

Webber

Wave iii of iii(circle) starting down from 1079. Watch out below.

Michael

Looks like a RINSE job heading into the close. Bought some SDS.

DG

Dave B,

A 1-2, 1-ii count is HIGHLY doubtful. Much more likely is that we are now in either a wave-b or wave-x off of Friday's bottom. That said, we could return to the downside at any time here. As I said, once we go under 107 SPY, it could mark an acceleration down as the bulls lose market dominance to the bears.

Mamma Boom Boom

Buyers stepped in at the end of the session.

Taz

The real test here is how the materials index behaves. Above I mentioned they were tracing out a potential flat (here in OZ anyway). Any lethargy in taking out the prior high has corrective written all over it. Must break by Tuesday at latets for any hint of a bullish resolution, otherwise I will be scoping the short side. Here in OZ copper stocks look plum for shorts.

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