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« PE Ratio Drop is Signaling Trouble | Main | Current Data Trumps Recent Positive Indications of Recovery »

Monday, August 30, 2010


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"The market is normally somewhat positive into Labor Day." - Yelnick

I'm sorry, but that's not true at all.
Since 1990, the five trading days BEFORE Labor Day have seen a -0.54% decline, which is pretty big underperformance.


If I am not mistaken in reading the EWI "tea-leaves" the 1-2, 1-2 EWI count means that the HEART of the entire Intermediate (1)of P[3] is almost upon us and we aren't even back close to the 1010 area. This is an interesting perspective given that the market should literally go into a free-fall type panic decline IMMEDIATELY!

In any event, the juncture is pretty darn specific for a change. If the market doesn't get crushed to the downside in dramatic fashion, their count will look suspect. It will grow even more suspect ABOVE 1065. In fact, it will become invalid.

PS. The TRIN on the NYSE closed out today at a whopping 3.81

Daniel  - Taz

A lot of conflict remains in the charts. Ultimately this will spoil the P3 enthusiasts.

BKX and SOX are weak. The Euro Swiss cross is also at new lows.

From an internal point of view, the medium-term picture looks very constructive for a very large rally if we can pull up in the very near-term.

Ultimately I would like new lows in price, not confirmed by the internals to enter long but we may not get that.


Michael, thanks for sharing the Bespoke data. Half their years are positive, and half negative, but the overall average is skewed by three years: 1997, 1998 and 2001. In all three the sharp downdraft had already begun. Perhaps the current drop off 1130 qualifies. I got my data from the STU, which was simply talking of "seasonal positives." In general after the August high we have a small Labor Day Rally, then the sharper drop begins.

Thanks for keeping me on my toes!

Daniel  - Taz

The decline in Japan and the Euro Yen cross look ominous. Taiwan too.

Markets have every reason to sell off sharply here. I think we get a marginal break of the June lows in the US before a significant rally.

If US markets fail to gain traction to the downside here, it would be a very bullish statement.


That STU nested 1-2 count is a complete joke!!!

Guy who's skeptical about STU nested 1-2 count

Chico, when you say joke do you mean like "a STU nested 1-2 walks into a bar...." because at least that'd be funny.

Roger D.

STU is right this time. This market is now ready to decline finally after building a grand supercycle top. It won't go straight down,but after we bounce the odds of a crash are the greatest since 1987.

Roger D.

Account Deleted

Dow Jones futures before opening bell


Anyone buy the "diP" this morning?

vipul garg

it looks that spx has seen the lows.


The pre-labor average returns are skewed by four bear markets during the last twenty years (1998, 2001, 2002, and 2008). Several of those years had 4-5 percent losses during the week. Since this is a bear trend, the bias should be down even if the market is up most of the time.


ACI: +0.83
ANR: +2.60
BTU: +1.70
CNX: +0.76
CLF: +2.53
FCX: +2.15
WLT: +4.33

da bear

I think that gold will drop when stocks begin to slide.
I have gold being in a wave 'B' of Cycle 4 of Super Cycle V.
I don't see gold decoupling.

da bear

Mamma Boom Boom

>I have not mentioned Neely's views much recently, but it is worthy to note that he thinks we are about to rally.<

Funny how we keep agreeing


>Tonight's STU is confident the downturn has *finally* started.<

That's it, 200% long.

Roger D.

Classic dead cat bounce,kissing the neckline good-bye.

Roger D.

The grand supercycle bear market begins in MCD


Still trying to "Pick The Top" in MCD, eh Roger?

We'll I guess a broken-clock will eventually be right at some point, but how much money have you lost shorting MCD this year?

It's rallied +40% since March 1st.


Roger D.


Everybody and their brother is set to go long here or cover. I would laugh my ass off if I was right and we started a downdraft here below 1000.
Can MCD go to a new high here? My answer is no,because the pattern has run out.
Roger D.

Broken Clock


Creative Recreation

Just shows that writing by way of knowledge brings so a lot depth and relevance to types readers. Thank you for sharing.

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