It is with great trepidation that I post this, given my prior post, but the comments are overflowing & I wanted to give frequent readers a forum before you jump (or not jump) to "Mamma's" new place. Have at it, and as a treat a little technical analysis below the fold.
I thought today continued a triangle sideways move after the drop off 1344, with leg A the first drop to 1294, leg B the rise to 1333, and leg C the drop today back to 1294. The implication would have been a rise tomorrow (and the emini is up a bit after hours), say to 1320 range, then a drop back towards 1294, and a thurst up to new highs. You can see the barrier triangle in this chart from Wave Principle:
A special STU threw cold analysis on this and determined the triangle trumped by the internal wave structure. This could be the start of a deeper break down, but there is a still-bullish alternative: that we are in an ABC down and just finished a middle B wave triangle. This shows up in the S&P but not the Dow nor the Naz, meaning it is a stretch. In any event, any bounce tomorrow is likely to be retraced down to lower levels before this corrective pattern completes.
How low? The first stop is in the 1275 range. The next is 1225. Carl Futia thinks we head towards 1270 then bounce:
Yelnick, thanks. Is was great reading your blog.
The Euro topped this week with an expanding ending diagonal. The Aussie dollar (possibly) with a converging ending diagonal. Looks like your leaving just as things get interesting.
Posted by: Virgil | Thursday, March 10, 2011 at 08:04 PM
Amazing and tragedy in Japan.
Tsunami live.
I'm numbed by the sight.
Tsunami to hit Hawaii soon and California by 9am
Careful Duncan.
Wave Rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 12:02 AM
get off the computer and get inland, laddie!
a tsunami's a comin and it will wipe out california!
wait.
maybe not
and maybe no crash either
Posted by: ominous signs! OMINOUS!!! scary | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 07:20 AM
wait.
maybe not
So we'll see you at the shore then, bro?
http://plixi.com/p/83228340
Posted by: Virgil | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 08:46 AM
Virgil, check out these amazing pictures of the Tsunami.
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/03/earthquake-in-japan/100022/
Posted by: yelnick | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 09:01 AM
C=A targets 1282.50 SPX
Carl Futia is the MAN!
Posted by: JT | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 09:34 AM
Awful. The computer model of the wave heights:
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-03/computer-models-illustrate-tsunamis-prodigious-powers
FLR up 3.5% and AKS 6% - leading the charge up on positive hopes for rebuilding profits. Imagine the benefits to the global recovery from the aftershocks? We should have tsunamis more often.
Posted by: Virgil | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 11:50 AM
I been to Sendai many times...best seafood, oyster and cow tongue. Also, the famous scenic Matsujima (Pine Island). About 2.5 hours north of Tokyo by bullet train.
I have yet to hear from my Japanese associates.
Posted by: Edwin | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 12:15 PM
lamest "tsunami" ever
can we all just go back to chicken littling about the stock market and economy?
thanks
Posted by: brian | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 12:30 PM
What's lame are people like you discounting a most unfortunate force of nature that has taken several hundred lives.
You are an idiot.
Posted by: Karma | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 12:39 PM
I think Hochberg has been putting out those "special STU's" for the last 200 s&p points telling us the sky is falling. why anyone would think he is going to be right this time is beyond me.
Posted by: what ever happened to P3? | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 01:14 PM
That moron Daneric has been thinking that Hochberg would be right for the last 2 years.
It's a good thing that Daneric doesn't leave his day job and try and trade for a living.
Epic fail.
Posted by: EWI Blows | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 04:26 PM
Daneric isn't getting rich charging people to peddle the religion of P3. Hochberg and crew make a good living promising the doomsday scenario and despite being so terribly wrong just continue to charge and peddle. In my book, it is shameful what EWI does. It is sad that people still look to them for guidance given how wrong they have been even more so than just from 1000-1345. They missed it in the 90's too but I'm sure they make a good living scaring the hell out of people.
Posted by: what ever happened to P3? | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 07:44 PM
Edwin,
Fukushima Power Plant #1 has no cooling water ,,,, may be melting down.
It's 150 miles north of Tokyo.
Sunday's open could get ugly.
Edwin, hope your colleagues are OK.
Wave Rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Friday, March 11, 2011 at 09:45 PM
Wave rust,
How many miles away from the power plant should people be evacuated in order to be safe from radiation? Any idea?
Henry
Posted by: Henry | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 07:59 AM
They've already evacuated people 12 miles away from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant.
It won't melt-down. The potential for that has already come and passed.
The explosion earlier that destroyed the exterior walls of the building where the reactor was, was caused by vented hydrogen interacting with oxygen from outside the reactor. The hydrogen was formed when the superheated fuel rods came in contact with water being poured over it to prevent a meltdown.
Posted by: CNN | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 09:44 AM
Henry,
ask that to the people more than 100 miles or even 1,000 miles away from Chernobyl, 25 years later.
Safe? from what?
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 11:54 AM
BBC reporting being stopped 60 km away. Seawater & boric acid cooling described by experts as last ditch & drastic. No one knows what's going on inside so it's premature to say we're out of the woods
Posted by: Virgil | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 12:00 PM
Question : ( YELNICK AND OTHERS )
DID RALPH ELLIOTT EVER MENTION ANYTHING ABOUT TECHNICAL INDICATORS IN HIS WRITINGS / BOOKS ?
I THINK I KNOW THE ANSWER BUT NOT SURE, THANKS
HANK
Posted by: Hank Wernicki | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 12:29 PM
Stratfor reports that Japan nuclear regulatory agency confirms explosion was caused by reactor meltdown
Posted by: Virgil | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 03:17 PM
Fox reported earlier 110km radius travel barrier. Keeps getting bigger
Posted by: Virgil | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 03:20 PM
Hank, never read Elliott's works but I don't believe they had indicators back then. According to stockcharts.com MACD & RSI were developed in the 70s. Can't find any others before then.
Posted by: Virgil | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 04:53 PM
More people have died from bee stings this week than from this supposedly big tsunami.
Wake me up when that dangling chunk of the Canaries plops into the ocean.
We've got seven billion people on this little round petri dish. And they're all thinking, caring people looking for food, shelter, warmth, love and respect. And there is NO F-ING ROOM! Folks, it's called "tragedy of the commons." Everyone wants to fck without condoms and make copies of themselves and spread the gospel of mormon or hasidism or islam or whatever... But we're all going to get hit with the radiation and plagues and violence when it's finally time for the population to crash.
Posted by: ugh | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 08:42 PM
ugh,
300 million americans will fit in the state of Texas.
yep we must be running out of room.
only 49 more states to fill up.
stupid elitist leftist population-control idiots have risen again like in the 50's and then the 60's and then 70's then the 80's ,,,, these are the same zombies that preached the "scare the hell out of them, to control the dumbass 'joe 6 packers' people" and then got lucky with Oblahblah's election.
then they tried climate scare, global warming BS ,,, and all the weather did was expose those lies too.
ugh, try to hook up with kindred spirits, somebody like George Soros ,,, you guys would get along well. he used to work for the original exterminator, Hitler.
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 11:48 PM
Duncan:
Read your bio. Serious Hp there in spades. I kind of suspected it by the way you write. Thanks again, it has been terrific!
Tony Caldero figures the low for the spx will be 1222. In hindsight, he has been pretty good with his calls over the last year or so.
Am well into Probable Outcomes by Easterling. Interesting thesis regarding secular market cycles. Might just keep a good chunk of the powder dry for a few more years.
Best,
Hock
Posted by: Hockthefarm | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 01:10 AM
Duncan
Jajajaja how much money did you lost following the neowave garbage or Prechter ?
Your blog has been very bad for more than 2 years. It is good to know that your are finally closing. You are a CLEAR sign of.a top. I guess we will see you back when the things start to crash again. The market is like a drug for you, and you are an addict trying to quit. ...... Ja ja ja....I will see you soon ... The drug... I mean the market will be here always....
Glenn Loser Neely
Posted by: Glenn Loser Neely | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 08:41 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7D6neBzTnOQ&feature=player_embedded
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 08:49 AM
Bull pen capital.... That is a real garbage,,, ,,,,!,,,, are you planing an IPO? So I can short the stock?????? Ja ja ja... GLN
Posted by: Glenn Loser Neely | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 08:55 AM
Wave rust I ain't a lefty I just know that cramming people into Texas will make things even shittier. I like space and clean air and there are too many gdamn people.
Posted by: Kobe Fan | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 10:14 AM
Monday, if the SPY does not slip on the Open, a nice rally
cheers
Hank
Posted by: Hank Wernicki | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 12:24 PM
"More people have died from bee stings this week than from this supposedly big tsunami." - ugh
Really?
10,000 people have died.
You Sir, are a fucking low-life scumbag.
I'm glad this blog is closing down... it won't give low-life scumbags a place to spew their ignorant trash anymore, let alone keep touting the "Gloom & Doom" garbage that comes from newsletter writers like Prechter and Neely that have never traded a share of stock in their life!
Posted by: ABC | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 12:26 PM
Tsunami shmunami.
This was a low level fart compared to indonesia. And I think the bees stat is real. My bro in law died from stings.
Whoever said scumbag should look at himself before casting stones.
Prechter rocks. He will rise again, like jc
Posted by: Kobe Fan | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 01:05 PM
For what its worth
mr elliott was looking for a high in the year 2012
prechter does mention this in one of his books yet
he discounted it . i wrote him about this back in 2007
this year has many interesting cycles to look at
and to many to write about . i posted them in my timing model
which ill admit leaves things abit mixed in the short term
http://www.tradersaffiliates.com
its in the weekly update section
Posted by: Joe | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 09:51 PM
Joe, Bob's new 7.25 year cycle actually points to early 2012 as the high before the bottom in 2016
Posted by: yelnick | Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 10:34 PM
Martin Armstrong has been raleased from Jail
Posted by: Hank Wernicki | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 10:36 AM
Yel,
Finally, I find something to agree with Mr. Prechter ,,,,
February 2012 high at SPX 1515 (minimum with no extension) for Intermediate (1), Primary 3, Cycle III, SC (III) ...
yep ,,,, the legendary 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 is just a few years ahead ,,,, but the 1 of 3 of 3 is doing just fine (even though 1's are very frikkin ugly and shifty, just so they can belie the reality, while beguiling all skeptics).
It's magic.
Ya gotta believe ,,,, especially in the beauty of the human spirit to plow through any and all adversity, including wars, famine, 'flations' of all sorts, horrible Presidents, bad science ,,,, and even the last 25 years of bad music, too.
Ya gotta love it.
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 10:52 AM
Been a long time since I've seen this much accumulated weakness.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 01:34 PM
Hank you have spouted some cr*p over the years,
you have given us prediction after prediction which went wrong.
Finally you tell us something which is the truth. Thank you!
Posted by: Robbo | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 01:46 PM
armstrong got out of prison a week or so ago ,,, last month i think
ned,
the markets are strongest when they look weak.
they are weakest when they look the strongest.
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 01:48 PM
wave, ..there is truth in that. But the timing can kill ya.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 01:53 PM
"My bro in law died from stings." - Kobe Fan
Your bro in law is a LOSER.
Just like you.
Posted by: ABC | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 02:15 PM
Crash
Posted by: Wave Rust | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 09:14 PM
buy opportunity coming.
Posted by: Edwin | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 09:47 PM
The futes are saying something has happened.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
Anyone hear anything? He/She??
Hock
Posted by: Hockthefarm | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 10:10 PM
First thought was Japan. Let's hope they can contain it. I'm sure one of the plant design guidelines was not "assume the country moves 8 inches".
The best outcomes from here will still be very tragic for Japan I'm afraid. Governments should not be allowed to run high levels of debt.
The yen is fucked.
Hock
Posted by: Hockthefarm | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 10:43 PM
Hock,
4th explosion at fukushima plant
released of radioactive steam at various times, has now been measured at 23 times "safe for humans"
radioactivity being measured and 'seen' in Tokyo
tokyo closes down 11%; arbitrage collars in place by the exchange.
other than that, things really suck.
i'm sure there's a "things suck" fractal, right Hank?!?
Wednesday, the NIKK closed above 10,300
Today it closed at 8,600
WHOOSH!
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 11:08 PM
Edwin,
maybe on Wednesday???
or, it just gets worse.
if Wed. or thursday any radiation begins to find its way to this continent or maybe Hawaii ,,,, well, it'll be a whole new market.
old adage- "buy when there's blood in the streets " does not apply to stock markets ,,,, it applies sometimes to real estate.
opening calls for European opening is down 2-3%
wave rust
C wave has exceeded 1.618 of A
so I guess C dudnt equal A anymore !!
Posted by: Wave Rust | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 11:22 PM
The way I see it ,,,, FWIW
the Globex SPM11 may have put in a low just above real support at 1247. that's about the same for SPX
the positive side of this for Bulls is this drop into the slot gives a great argument for ALTERNATION :)
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 11:30 PM
FWIW again
The bad for the bulls is obvious. from Feb 21 high, this correction is higher degree (probably minor), and is an A of some yet to be determined ABC.
If it is, then its going to take alot more time, like weeks.
It would mean to me, good trading weeks ,,,, but under ugly conditions.
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Monday, March 14, 2011 at 11:41 PM
my swing trade mechanix can easily get to SPX 1125 if 1227 does not hold.
in that case, a bounce should get back to 1330 from the 1220-30's before dragging down the markets again into June
thats my opinion, and I'm welded to it until anything changes in the slightest way. :))
be carefull out there.
back in a few weeks.
wave rust
Posted by: Wave Rust | Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 12:14 AM