Special Bulletin

It is with great trepidation that I post this, given my prior post, but the comments are overflowing & I wanted to give frequent readers a forum before you jump (or not jump) to "Mamma's" new place. Have at it, and as a treat a little technical analysis below the fold.

I thought today continued a triangle sideways move after the drop off 1344, with leg A the first drop to 1294, leg B the rise to 1333, and leg C the drop today back to 1294. The implication would have been a rise tomorrow (and the emini is up a bit after hours), say to 1320 range, then a drop back towards 1294, and a thurst up to new highs. You can see the barrier triangle in this chart from Wave Principle:

 

A special STU threw cold analysis on this and determined the triangle trumped by the internal wave structure. This could be the start of a deeper break down, but there is a still-bullish alternative: that we are in an ABC down and just finished a middle B wave triangle. This shows up in the S&P but not the Dow nor the Naz, meaning it is a stretch. In any event, any bounce tomorrow is likely to be retraced down to lower levels before this corrective pattern completes.

How low? The first stop is in the 1275 range. The next is 1225. Carl Futia thinks we head towards 1270 then bounce:

Comments

[yelnick]

Wave, I am in Narita (Tokyo airport) transiting through. Things seem remarkably normal except the red carpet club is closed. Fear travels faster than reality.

[Coop]

Yelnicks retirement calls the exact top!

[Virgil]

Aussie dollar finally breaks out of wedge it had been in for the last 4 months - to the downside.

[Virgil]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110315-red-alert-radiation-rising-and-heading-south-japan?utm_source=redalert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110315&utm_content=readmore&elq=d69220ef429c476b97c98ac6576c5ba1

The Japanese government is lying to the people in order to keep them calm. I wouldn't stick around waiting for the lounge to open.

[Julie Andrews]

"Wave, I am in Narita (Tokyo airport) transiting through. Things seem remarkably normal except the red carpet club is closed. Fear travels faster than reality." - Yelnick

Yeah Duncan...
Feel free to let us all know how that 6.2 Earthquake felt today!
You seem like you could use a reality check.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Very bearish market action.

[Sheen top is in]

The top is in!

Let's call it the Charlie Sheen top! The top when Sheen went maniacal along with investors!

[Wave Rust]

Yel,

I wish you well on your trip and hope you can get out and on to Singapore. I agree about the fear traveling quickly.

I always try to prepare early and avoid the rush if things get worse.

Just in case your multiple news scans are delayed or unavailable:
I just saw the satellite photo of Fukushima and it is smoking.

at an 87 mile radius from Sendai, the radiation is only 30msv while 400 at an 18 mile radius. Tokyo is 150 miles away.

reportedly, warnings are out for drinking water in Tokyo.

Singapore looks like it is out of the weather carrying airborne particles. Being behind that path is good.

Take care Duncan.

wave rust

the swissie has been rockin but may be at some temp. support

[Hockthefarm]

Some interesting comments from Robert Shiller today. They were probing him on the direction of RE. He sees down markets ahead for several years for all types of RE.

When pushed, he made the following brilliant observation:

He basically said that he looked back as far as the 1800's and saw nothing to compare to this massive bubble in RE that was blown in the last few years. He sees this one as a step change from the past and that as such, all of the old economic models for housing are quite useless. Something to keep in mind when you race in to pick up a home at 40 percent off. Equilibrium could be a long, long way off.

Hock

[upstart]

Knew that higher lows in Treasuries as stocks made higher highs meant something. And we had monthly topping patterns pointing to Feb. and March. Just a question as usual as to how much downside there is.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

>Just a question as usual as to how much downside there is.<

This is what I wrote over the weekend: SHORT TERM: (3 days - 3 weeks) - Sell- The down trend is at the point where it can have big down days. Trading on the short side can be profitable. I would estimate the S&P will get to 1175 pretty quickly.

[Hockthefarm]

Sy Harding notes that it took Japan's markets 6 months to bottom after Kobe.

But he also adds:

"Yet, on the plus side, in 1995 there was not the current investor/trader mentality that rushes in so quickly to buy the dips, and the high-frequency trading houses trading not on longer-term considerations, but on whether they can get in and out with profits on quick trades."

I think I'll just leave it to the gobots. Imagine bailing out a gobot. Haha.
Hock

[Virgil]

the swissie has been rockin but may be at some temp. support

Looks like it may be an ending diagonal on both the weekly and daily

[Chris]

Not that anyone cares, but the "Too Many People" comments always angry up my blood:

7,000,000,000 people on Earth
268,581 square miles in Texas
27,878,400 square feet per square mile
7,487,608,550,400 square feet in Texas

Which means that every man woman and child in the world could stand in their own 1,069.66 square foot patch of land in Texas, which is roughly the population density of Manhattan.

Obviously we need more land per person than that to live, but if everyone is in Texas, there are still 57,237,474 square miles (or 99.53% of dry land) out there.

I'm not taking sides here, but sometimes perspective helps.

[JT]

"Very bearish market action." - Mamma

You obviously don't trade for a living and are a total POSER.

Just about every commodity stock ( FCX, CVX, MOS, etc. ) is massively up off the intra-day lows of the session.

But hey, thanks for offering your "paper-trading" advise!

LOL!

[Fan]

Mamma, If your prior predictions are any indication, I would expect to see the S&P at 1175 relatively soon. Thanks for the update!

[Mamma Boom Boom]

Fan, ...from a technical point, today's downdraft was not all that large. I would expect much bigger moves in the days ahead.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

How about a 'way out in left field' prediction?

Japan is forced to suspend payments on all sovereign debt, until it can rebuild it's economy. That sets up a precedent: Country after country start playing 'copy-cat'.

Sovereign defaults become the 'Norm'.

[upstart]

Mamma, in other corners we have people like Carl Futia saying the correction is about over. One thing I'm keeping in mind is that the 4 year cycle bottomed last year, so the downside may be limited.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

upstart, ....I'd be nervous if folks started agreeing with me.

[Mamma Boom Boom]

--Corn, Soybeans, Oats Finish Limit Down--

http://www.screencast.com/users/MammaB/folders/Default/media/2716ad12-1b93-4aa6-8095-9841faaff35e

[upstart]

True Ned, uh, Mamma. I expect a trip around the 200-dMa. Don't know why Futia is that bullish.

[Dsquare]

Mama, can't you just change your name to Lola? Not quite as confusing.

[DG]

You obviously don't trade for a living and are a total POSER.

Just about every commodity stock ( FCX, CVX, MOS, etc. ) is massively up off the intra-day lows of the session.

But hey, thanks for offering your "paper-trading" advise!

LOL!

Posted by: JT | Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 12:52 PM

You remain a tool right to the blog's bitter end, eh, asshole? What new blog are you going to pollute with your presence now, so I can avoid it like the plague.

[Been There]

Ditto re the Home Depot refugee.

[yelnick]

Wave, thanks for the info on radiation. Apparently a fake SMS panicked people in The Philippines. So far what seems to have happened is the Gen. 2 reactor design is showing its design flaw of cascading problems. Gen 3 which Markey wants to kill is designed for passive cooling on a power outage. And a thorium salt reactor is inherently safe from such events. (One of the reasons why thorium is the next best thing to fusion.)

As described to me what sent the main reactors overheating was first, the grid failed; second, the tsunami swamped the diesel backup generators; and third, human error: as the battery backup was running down, the rushed-in replacement battery units had the wrong plugs! So the reactors overheated, the water boiled to too much steam, exposing some rods, which melted off their covering and emitted some bad stuff like radioactive cesium. Then they had to vent the steam releasing radioactive stuff, plus flood the place with seawater, putting the reactors out of business forever. The steam and exposure of rods created too much hydrogen, and hydrogen caused the explosions, not the rods themselves.

Sent from my iPad

[yelnick]

Julie Julie Julie - I was talking about the radiation fears not the unfolding tragedy that this earthquake caused. I gave money to Japanese relief. Follow the thread, please.

Sent from my iPad

[yelnick]

Coop, how yelnickish it would be if my retirement signaled the top!

[yelnick]

Virgil, the info in the Stratfor report on radiation is consistent to what I saw on NHK at the Tokyo Narita airport. You are jumping to a conclusion regarding the Japanese govt lying. I have to fly back via Narita, which is in between the reactors and Tokyo, so if southerly winds worsen the potential no fly area, I will know.

[Edwin]

It is time to order CH-47 to make sufficient trips to bury and kill the reactors with rocks and dirt.

[Bull Trade]

>>>One thing I'm keeping in mind is that the 4 year cycle bottomed last year, so the downside may be limited.

4 year cycle indeed bottomed but the 5 year bear cycle hasnt bottomed yet....cautiousness to the bulls here...2012 is 5 years off the top and will be a bear year.

Rule 8: Add five years to any top, will give the next bottom of a five-year cycle with about the same average fluctuations. In order to get tops of a 5-year cycle, add five years to any bottom and it will give the next top with the same average fluctuations. 1917 bottoms of a big bear campaign - add five years gives 1922 top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say 'Top of a Minor Bull Campaign'? 1919 was top - add five years to 1919,gives 1924 as bottom of a 5-year Bear cycle. Refer to Rule 2 and 3, which will tell you that a Bull or Bear campaign never runs more than two years in the same direction.

http://gann.su/book/eng/Gann,%20W.D._On%20Cycles%20&%20Trading%20-%20Forecasting%20Rules.pdf

[Wave Rust]

yel, did tou get out yet?

4 of 6 Fukushima reactors are under some degree of stress, smoking and steaming. #1 was offline before the quake but had lots of hot rods in storage above the continment. It's now smoking, as are the other three.

Yes, on #2 & #3 as described by you.

#4 had an explosion and fire that was supposedly put out again. But the gov't said that it wasn't exactly out.

no word about plants #5 and 6 at fukushima ,,,, pictures show no steam/smoke.

The media focus has been on Fukushima and it makes me think that other of the various plants could come under stress since power is off in some regions near the plants.

Water is now unavailable west and south of Sendai.

Weather changes are forecast for the lower level wind currents. As of a few hours ago, winds were coming out of the NNW, but could be switching around to ENE from offshore on Saturday, blowing back towards Tokyo, China and Korea.

BTW, Duncan, the Japanese word for "panic" sounds alot like "paneek"! Seriously! :)

There is no real Japanese word for panic. It's not in their DNA, I guess.

Let us know if you get out, or have gotten out of tokyo

wave rust

[KRG]

What are the views on Yen, should it strengthen on repatriation or weaken on deficits etc

[yelnick]

Wave, was there and out in 2 hours yesterday. But have to go back thru next Monday. Pan- eek!

Sent from my iPad