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Wednesday, September 26, 2012


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Great correlation aud/spx. I was training 2 engineers from China last week. As I got to know them over several lunches and dinners it became clear that they knew nothing about their own economy (about what we would expect from a grade 8 student here). Communism in action.

As for Prechter, it is not just his P3. It is RE for pennies on the dollar, bankrupt banks, sky high US$ and a full monty commodity collapse. Dow 1000 anyone? I don't think there is anyone left to argue about his timing capabilities. Friday's stu is full of wiggle alternates. The real question for me is "does he have the big picture right"?

What I really like about Prechter is his insights and his efforts to translate them into real market responses. And I think Irving Fisher (arguably the greatest economist ever), would agree with most of what he has written in the last 5 years. The great learning from Fisher on the GreatD was to never let your society get too far in debt, because if you do, there is no policy rsponse to get you out of it. Then along came Greenspan and he led the west deep into the very thing Fisher warned us about.

As for the current market, down 5% tops in the spx and then +10 - 15 % into May.



The AUD appears to be in a great big contracting triangle since July '11 and just finished up the D wave. D always seems like the messiest and hardest to count, kind of like a fourth. So down from here appears to be the likeliest direction, and that means down for commodities, China, mining, etc. How long can the stock market resist that deviation from its correlation?

The one caveat is that triangle is just really obvious now. All the currency Elliott counters I can see have the same triangle identified and all are looking at the same chart. When everybody expects the same thing is when you can expect something else to happen.


Bye, bye Greece:

They lied to get in, and now they want to live like they were a productive society. It's hard to believe that nobody thought for one minute about the Greek people, their view of work and their values before they were allowed into the club.

This one is over on humanitarian grounds if nothing else.


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