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« Free Week Gets into the Good Stuff | Main | Symmetry Bespokes Final Thrust Up »

Monday, November 19, 2012

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Tom Green

prechter free week rally strikes again!

its simply uncanny how it works every time.

heres the trading system:

1. wait for the EWI free week
2. start scanning the markets for bottoming patterns since the market usually goes down a bit more after the free week begins.
3 as the market bottoms look for triangles, cup and handles, h&s etc,
4. go long and profit fron this interesting socionomic phenomena which guages prechters greed

in this case, friday 11/16 put in an inverted head and shoulders bottom

this was a pretty easy rally to forecast, but the free week just gives you that extra confidence

Tom Green

it would be interesting to go back and find all the dates of every prechter free week

i cannot remember one never not working

it must be somewhere close to 100% accuracy

Hockthefarm

Y:

I just don't get how anyone would call this hyperinflationary:

"He makes an intriguing additonal observation, of a type of hyperinflation, but not the type that is commonly bantered about, a Wiemar-Republic style inflationary collapse. Instead, as we risk more of a deflationary environment from too much debt (deflation arising as that debt gets written off or washed out faster than central banks can print), this time it will emerge from increased credit risk in what heretofeore have been the most risk free instruments - US Treasuries."

Fewer dollars chasing more goods = deflation.
Increased credit risk = higher borrowing costs = less growth, which in turn is also deflationary.

Crude less than 20 $/bbl by 2015! The ripple effect on a market economy will be hugely deflationary. Ditto for commodities in general. +65's (the fastest growing segment in our population) don't want their 6000 square foot house anymore. They want to retire and to do it worry free, they have to be debt free.

What am I missing?
Hock

yelnick


Hack, maybe use hyper deflationary. Point is the loss of creditworthiness of the US Treasuries. 

Hockthefarm

Thanks yelnick:

As I recall, Prechter is calling for a strong dollar for the next few years. My understanding is that he sees increased credit risk and deflation creating a massive demand for dollars. Longer term though, 5 to 10 years out, I don't think he is so positive on the buck.

H

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