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« China's First Debt Default - Harbinger of End of Credit Bubble? | Main | Funny: Bitcoin ATM Shows Up in Cyprus »

Friday, March 22, 2013

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MP

2008 bottom still an ABC up to current and still in progress for B...then C down till 2016 December

dlu

agree.

Virgil

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-no-american-manufacturing-renaissance-2013-3

At least in the traditional energy intensive industries and exporters. This would seem to suggest that Chinese export driven growth to N. America has not reached its end.

I'm not surprised as I've believed for a long time in the post growth second economy and it's only accelerating with the so called "Maker" movement decentralizing production of goods.

yelnick

Virgil, there is a lot of excitement about the Maker revolution in VC circles, but it is awfully early. It might not scale until the 2020s after the Great Recession finally ends, and the combo of 3D printing, robotics and genetic manipulation powers a "digital meets physical" rapid growth period. Manufacturing would come back, but highly robotized or distributed, not in factories of old. The risk we run with our incoherent industrial policy and zombie banks is that China gets there first. What this means for China's hard landing or not is unclear; Yves thinks the Shanghai is a buy, as above, as do some very clever and secretive fund managers I know.

Virgil

Yel,

I'll take your word for it about the SSEC. The daily chart looks bullish to me, but the weekly looks rather ambiguous.

I agree with your timing about the Makers. It's a novelty until they get the kinks worked out with materials, quality, human interfaces, and the right applications (drones are great for bombing and spying but most people I know not involved in divorce proceedings are generally not in the market for that stuff). System resilience is something I hope they're working on. A flash crash is the last thing we need once Fedex, UPS, & Burlington Northern start flying these things all over the place.

I'm pretty optimistic that something becomes of it all. I'm not sure the Chinese will be able to progress away from their comparative advantage economy. Not to sound (too) biased, but I think the lack of rule of law and personal property rights is going to hamper their modernization efforts.

I backed the 3D doodler on kickstarter and am now anxiously awaiting delivery. What the hell I'm going to do with it I'm not sure, but it should be fun figuring that out.

Virgil

I guess the result of decentralization and diffusion of technology will be that Fedex et al will not be around. The big crashes come about because a few too-big-too-fail agents end up failing anyway but in much bigger ways than many smaller ones. So the new manufacturing revolution could ultimately end up creating a much more sound an healthy economy, but perhaps only after some real disruption.

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