Predictions are hard. Especially about the future. - Yogi Berra
1. Stocks rise to new highs, but peak in January or early February, and have the biggest drop since 2011.
2. Tech IPOs soar, and despite the correction, we have the best IPO market since 1999, but it won't be 1999 quite yet next year.
3. Money begins to flow into VC again, as the depressed ten-year VC returns since the last bubble begin to give way to dramatic returns in this new tech boom
4. Gold falls below $1000 before reversing. This may coincide with the Q1 stock peak.
5. US ten-year Treasury yield goes over 4% before reversing. This may coincide with the Q1 stock peak. The correction gives a last chance to exit bonds, as rates drop again.
6. After the correction, stocks rise, but the broader markets do not exceed the Q1 top in 2014. We will leave for Predictions 2015 if they have a secondary peak below the Q1 highs before sliding again.
7. The Nasdaq runs higher counter-trend, pushed by a rational exuberant rotation into tech stocks. Will it hit 5000 again, last seen in 2000? I'll save that for Predictions 2015. (Why rational? It will be the only sector producing alpha in 2014, other than energy via fracking.)
8. Mexico is seen as the new Brazil as the BRICs hit a credit-crisis wall.
9. Bitcoin fever breaks as governments clamp down. Is it the new Napster, or the new Tulip? Wait until 2015 to find out.
10. The Republicans find a way to avoid self-destructing and capture Congress in 2014.