Politick

Fighting Terrorism by Empowering Woman

Aristophanes in Lysistrata wrote a wonderful satire with a gem of truth: to prevent war, the women withhold sex. George Gilder, before he wrote the Bible of the Reagan Revolution: Wealth and Poverty, wrote a screed against feminism called Social Suicide which, although much vilified and satirized, also contains a germ of truth: through marriage, young and restless men are made to provide for the future. But what about the woman?

At a Commonwealth Club session at Stanford, an off-handed suggestion was made by one of a group of panelists while discussing the role of the UN in the war on terrorism, that may contain an amazing insight into winning the hearts and minds of the people trapped in the broken nations that spawn terrorism: empower the woman to break the back of support for terrorism. Despite what Gilder argued, it appears worldwide that the empowerment of woman - education, employment, enfranchisement and entrepreneurialism - is a major force for lifting broken nations out of a cycle of poverty and hate. The Grameen Bank in India, and others like it, have found that giving microcredit to the poor, especially to woman, has a remarkable impact.

Can Govt Stats be Trusted?

This disturbing report from Merrill Lynch sent in by a loyal Yelnick reader: that recent GDP figures assume a much larger increase in tech spending than other sources support. This on top of the head-fake employment numbers a week ago, where the Labor Dept reported an increase, but the fine print showed they had removed a much larger number from previous reports, so they were able to claim an increase when their own numbers showed a decrease!

Scandal Candidate: Cheney and UA93

Scandal Candidate: Cheney and UA93. Yelnick said: "Prechter has gone out on his limb, and predicted that Bush too will be brought down by some scandal, yet to emerge, for actions already taken." My scandal candidate: The fact (reported by Dan Balz and Bob Woodward in the WashPost) that Cheney ordered and then confirmed the order to shoot down UA93 on 9/11, and the suspicion-bordering-on-fact that the Air Force carried out this order, followed by a cover-up. Reason for the cover-up: a) GW wasn't in the decision loop (he wasn't even on the phone!), and his 9/12 public image couldn't have taken the hit. b) "The Vice President killing Americans" (even if it was the right thing to do... it was...) complicated the spin of "bad guys killing Americans," and this is an administration driven by spin.

Also note that while "conspiracies" (before the fact) are exceedingly rare, "cover-ups" (after the fact) are depressingly common... I believe in the latter, hardly ever in the former. The electorate has said it doesn't care about crony capitalism, but it does care about 9/11. Scandals which bring down presidents need to go to the source of their strength.

The Kennedy Republican Tax Cut

Art Laffer, the scion of supply side, proffered a perfect tax proposal for Gov. Schwarzenegger to fix California's fiscal problem: a radical simplification down to two taxes: 6% on business net sales, and 6% on personal income less the normal  middle class deductions (mortgage, charity, and -   significantly - rent). This would match current California tax revenues and would replace ALL other taxes, including sales, property, capital gains,   etc.  Laffer's insight is that a complex tax scheme raises too much money  during boom times, which governments overspend; and raises too little in bad   times, which causes crises like the one behind the Recall.  This simple tax would smooth revenue to the state, as well as make California look like the promised land to business once again.

Kennedy Republicanism and the Internet Democracy

NYT editorial today picked up on Yelnick's theme that the California Recall is presaging the next shift in US politics - towards more direct political action, an Internet Democracy. What is behind this is a revolt against politicians. This is why the perfect Presidential candidate for the times is not Howard Dean, nor Hillary, but Wesley Clarke - not just an outsider, but a non-politician. He was recently described to me by a loyal Yelnick reader as a 'multi-dimensional' thinker who would answer a question such as, how do we fight terrorism? by noting that terrorism is part criminal behavior, part cultural clash, part financial .. and only part military. So using the military to try to solve all four aspects is doomed to fail.

The country has Wesley, we in California have Ahhnold.

Crony Capitalism and Bush's Watergate Yet To Come

Bear markets bring down the stock market icons of the prior Bull: Martha Stewart, Frank Quattrone. The grizzler bears begin to mawl the icons of the prior era outside of the financial arena.

Bush too may be brought down by some scandal, yet to emerge, for actions already taken. Current candidate for Bush's Watergate: the incredibly irresponsible behavior of Vice President Dick Cheney, still receiving stock options and deferred compensation from Haliburton, and the apparent favoratism shown Haliburton in Iraq reconstruction. Crony capitalism of this magnitude - and it may be just the tip of a deeper iceberg - deserves to be outed then dismantled. Bush may have gone to war to fix a problem left by his dad, but the cronies around him may truly have gone to war for oil, to feather the nests of their prime consituents, oil and oil service companies like Haliburton.