I agree with the overall poll results for who won each of the the debates but the real poll is in the voting booth, and I that poll scores the debates differently. We have to look instead at beating the point spread:
* Kerry won the first debate and equalized, got himself back in the race
* Quayle won the VP debate; it looked like he had more experience than Edwards
* Bush won the 2d debate, because Kerry could have put him away and didn't (see Slate article Strikeout!)
* Schieffer lost the 3d debate, lame questions, but it won't change the polls much, so a tie
Bush scowled during the first debate (confused by that hidden mike in his ear!) and looked fine in the 2d, but for a while looked too excited in the 3d debate. Then he calmed down quite a bit, slowed his delivery and sounded better (maybe another voice in his ear told him to?), so clearly Kerry was pounding him in the 3d for the middle part of it. But he escaped the KO in part because Kerry flubbed a few questions.
External events may now decide the race. In a close race the swing goes to Bush as it did in Australia for John Howard, to back the commander in chief during war.
Fact is there is much less difference between these two than they try to make it seem, hence the voter indecision. Compassionate Conservative = Shackled Liberal. Main differences are:
* Kerry would have fought the war more like Bush 41 than Bush 43, ergo no Iraq Quagmire
* Kerry would have kept the Paygo limits (which Bush 41 created) and not reduced taxes, ergo less deficit
* Kerry would not have undermined environmental regulations under the table
These are fairly damning differences. One can imagine a Kerry Unshackled running amok, like Clinton's first 2 years. But the Repubs control Congress, and we have better fiscal discipline with a divided government than when one party controls. The Repubs unfortunately have proven every bit as craven and irresponsible as the Demos when in total power. Hence the real alternative to Bush is Kerry with a Repub Congress - a shackled liberal.
Problem dogging Bush is his record sucks. Problem for many conservatives is that Bush is no conservative - he is one of the most radical Presidents we have had. The consequences of his Presidency will be with us long after he is gone. The damage to the conservative movement may be larger than appears today. It is one of those odd political moments like Nixon in 1968 where it might have been better for the party to lose the election. If you are a conservative, imagine a really bad 2d term, with Demos sweeping Congress in 2006 and Hillary (unshackled) the candidate in 2008 ...
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