An Alternate Model for Global Warming

The climate models have consistently over-predicted warming. This seems to be a consequence of the carbon-based theory of warming: since Co2 is a relatively weak greenhouse gas, to fit prior years the models need a "climate sensitivity" factor beyond Co2 alone, but then the models over-predict what actually happens after. The models are now way out of whack with reality (the black line of measured temperatures, which is way below model projections):

When you hear that warming is "accelerating at a much faster pace than was previously thought", as UN Secy General Ki-Moon said recently, they are incorrect. The data show the opposite: we are cooling faster than previously thought. 

A climate scientist from India, Girma Orssengo, suggests a simpler alternative model which better matches historical temperature measurements: a modest trendline up of 0.6C degrees/century since the end of the little Ice Age, masked by a 60-year cycle of warming and cooling that adds 0.3C degrees over 30 years of warming, then subtracts it over the next 30 years of cooling, for a 0.6C swing top to bottom. 

This model can explain why the climate models are so off: they are fit to the wrong rate of warming, the swing not the trendline. Something natural is causing the 60-year cycle that is not in their models.

The 20th Century warmed up by around 1.1C degrees, while the model predicts the 21st Century will be flat with essentially no warming at all. Why the difference? The 20th Century started close to a bottom of the cycle and ended at a top, exaggerating warming, whereas the 21st Century will start at a top and end at a bottom, masking warming. 

The model has 0.6C rise over 100 years, with a 0.6C swing top-to-bottom. Hence it would predict that:

• a century which starts at a bottom and ends at a top would go 0.6C plus the bottom-to-top swing of another 0.6C, or 1.2C, close to the measured rise of 1.12C of the last century
• a century which starts at a top and ends at a bottom would find the 0.6C rise masked by the 0.6C top-to-bottom swing for a net 0.0C rise

This is easy to see from the chart:

1910 was a low point at -0.64C
2000 was a high at 0.48C
= a 90 year rise of 1.12C 

2090 is predicted to be a low point at 0.41C
= a 90 year fall of -0.07C 

There is a lot of investigation of the climate sensitivity factor. Prof. Lindzen of MIT has calculated it as much less than in the models: around 0.3-0.6x, not the plugs of above 1.2x in the IPCC climate models. 

A new study could be a game-changer: UC Irvine has found that soil microbes have a negative feedback with temperature increases. The models had assumed that microbe Co2 output would increase with warming, not decrease. Since microbe Co2 is 10x human emissions, they could also pull it back out of the atmosphere much faster than humans can put it up there. 

Comments

[Thesis Writing]

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[Jeremy]

Thank you for your soothing words, Brother Thomas.From the tnemmocs that have been made on the subject here around the Village pump I can see that many support your view that these scare stories shouldn't be further propagated and exaggerated by constant repetition.Too, it's reassuring that none here in our little community would even think of making up negative stories about how the Great Cooling will affect society. Again we can be proud that we command the moral high ground!!Though fabricated scare stories will always be in circulation (remember the one a couple of years ago about the economic crisis' and all those job losses?) we can be sure that once the Great Cooling starts all this Warmist propaganda will melt away like so much Arctic ice!(BTW, any news on the start of the Great Cooling yet? There was snow in Poland a few days ago which obviously proves the world isn't warming. But is the Cooling close? The signs are there in the quiet sun, the return of the little girl. Should all of us here in the Village open our fridge doors to help it on its way and give those Warmists a real tipping point to worry about!!)

[Essay Writing]

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