Amidst stories about the new Iraqi Constitution (or lack thereof), the NYT dropped an editorial this Sunday as to whether the war is already lost. The key event is the Ohio death incident a few weeks ago & the precipitous drop in support for the war it accentuated. Point is not that the loss of lives is high, but what are they dying for? WMD? No. WOT? No. Democracy? Looks unlikely. If I were Al Queda I would launch a Tet offensive right now. Interesting is that some stock market pundits are half expecting it.
While the Iraqis debate their constitution, we must reconsider ours for the war.
Why carry on the fight? Oil? Honor? The best argument seems to be what Colin Powell is supposed to have told Bush - if you break it, you own it. The reason to stay is to fix what we broke. We have now created the conditions that we would have gone in to fight over! Pathetic, but there you are. We have to get the terrorists out of the western desert, and we have to keep the voracious neighbors out. Beyond that to expect democracy is a bit much. My recommendation:
Cut & stay. Pull back to three bases (south/port, middle/Baghdad, north/oilfields) and stay there to keep Iran & Syria out. Use the army not to police the streets but clean up the terrorist cells.
Divide & Conquer. Push federalism. One source of insurgency is the Sunni minority trying to keep the Shi-ites from gaining the whole thing. The Kurds in the North have a working democracy of sorts - they have had 15 years of autonomy since the 1991 war to develop it. We all know Iraq is a post-colonial construct. The Ottoman Empire had instead three provinces. Attempts to centralize Iraq over 4000 years have proven difficult. Let it be federated & let the US Army in the bases keep the neighboring wolves at bay while the country settles into a federation with common defense and currency.
Divert & Distract. One of the smarter moves LBJ made in 1968 when the North Koreans plucked one of our spy chips (The Pueblo) was to low-key the whole affair. Keep it off the news. Let diplomacy work. Time for that in Iraq. The Brits pacified Malaysia from Communist insurgency when it looked like one of those Vietnam dominoes, but it took them 14 years. Iraq too will take time. Keep it off the radar screen to give the military the chance.
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