Prechter, Wavespeak & Zoran all launched mid-day bulletins today.
You gotta love Prechter. On Friday he says no way will it poke above Dow8612. Today it did, and Prechter stuck to his guns. Ok, so what he read as a wave 5 on Friday was only a 3, and needed a final wave 5, so that is what happened. But this is it. He compares this to his most epic call, a call for the ages: in Sep 1985, in a downturn of a then weak market, he saw that a perfectly interlaced series of waves 1 - 2 had coiled up ready for a massive wave 3. He not only called it when other pundits were bearish, he bet heavily - and made a fortune. He sees this as almost the perfect inverted setup, where the massive wave 3 heads down and not up. As he says:
We think we may see a new extreme in bullish advisory service sentiment on the next report. New extremes in sentiment opposing an established trend are so rare that this is only the second one I have seen in the stock market in my career. ... Whether there is any further rally or not, in the long run, markets never look back from such junctures.
Ryan Henry of Wavespeak (which is about to graduate from StockCharts to Free Newsletter to Paid Service - good on him!) continues to do clear wave counts & predictions. He noted that the Nasdaq has broken the Dec high (1521), which changes the wave count. The old count had the Nasdaq ending its wave 2 off the Oct low in Dec; the new count has the whole action since Oct as an unfolding ABC wave 2. Only wave A ended in Dec, not wave 2; we are now in wave C.
He predicts an intense down move over the next few days, but staying above 1425, and then continuing back up towards 1600 in a fairly strong rally. In contrast, the Dow is a different story - although it went through Prechter's 8612 level, it has not broken 8664, where it would violate a fundamental Elliott rule, that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave.
We have noted how the Nasdaq has presaged moves in the NYSE indices. The Nasdaq has now diverged from the Dow and S&P. Is it presaging that those indices will also break their Dec highs? Wavespeak thinks not.
For clarity on these conflicting bulletins, we turn to Zoran. His count has been the alt count all along - that we remain in a wave 2 correction from the July lows (Oct lows being merely the second leg of the five-leg Iraqi War Triangle). He notes that the S&P did go the wee bit higher he thought it might, but it rests right at the tipping point. If it drops, then the Prechter view is right. If it continues up, then the whole wave count needs to be rethought. We would be in a wave 3 up of wave C of 2, and should have a fairly broad-based rally!
For those of you who trade, a nerve-wracking time. For those who blog, a truly wonderful Elliott moment!
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