Yelnick has been watching the indicators of a bottom in the real economy in Silicon Valley, Ground Zero for the bear market. It appears that an interim bottom in VC investing occurred last Dec02 (some pundits say Feb03), as VC activity has picked up, although valuations haven't budged much. Yelnick noticed a change in attitude of the recently disemployed from seaking jobs to working on business plans. Headhunter activity also picked up. Were happy days about to be here again?
This turnaround seems to have slowed. Headhunters activity has slackened, and price discounting by the major search firms is rampant. (Several went public in the mania, and are visciously dropping price to maintain revenues - is a Martha Stewart story just ahead for them?) Many resumes chasing the open positions are coming from the employed not disemployed, and they are more often the ones hired, leading to a 'musical chairs' of new opens to replace old ones but only a modest increase in overall positions.
Perhaps this is the summer doldrums, perhaps a normal hesitation before a continuation of the trend (ie normal wave action), but it raises a momentary caution flag.
The next big event is supposed to be the Google IPO in Sep/Oct, hoepfully not coming in the face of the 3 of (3) of [3] downdraft.
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