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« Redskins Lose, Pullback Looms | Main | Time For A Pullback »

Friday, November 05, 2004


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Maarten Verheyen

Why do you expect that we will see another top and that 2000 was not THE top?


The wave 4 case: This blog site evolved out of a private newsletter, where I had explored whether this is a wave 4 with a wave 5 to higher levels to follow, or a wave A as Prechter thinks, the beginning of a long and deep bear market. I have not laid this out for a while. You might take a look at an older post called The Big Picture, which I then updated in a post called The Bullish Case and laid out this summary:

"The question right now is whether the correction since the 2000 peak is 50W4, a major correction of the magnitude of 50W2, which lasted 16 years; or 82W4, a smaller correction in a continuing bull market. So far the broader market is down 50% from the 2000 peak as compared to the beginning of 82W3, a normal wave 4 correction that would fit the view that we are in 82W4. If so, 82W4 could have ended in Oct02 or Mar03, and we have begun 82W5; or 82W4 is still proceeding, and we have another wave down ahead of us. (It would count as an ABC, with the A wave down to Oct02 or Mar03, the B wave having possibly ended recently, and we would be in the beginnings of wave C down.)"

It helps to read the full post to understand the nomenclature of 50W4 and 82W4. Updating this summary today, it seems possible that 82W4 ended in Mar03 and we have been in 82W5 up, with subwave 1 ending in Jan04, and subwave 2 (down) being our current situation. More likely we are still in 82W4.

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