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« Last Chance Coming | Main | China Bashing - Getting the Dollar Story Backwards »

Sunday, April 17, 2005

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Eric Noel

Having lost a ton of money by foolishly following the Prechter gang blindly, I am too careful to form a firm opinion until I see confirmation. However, I think this is an important juncture. We have a 5 wave decline from the March highs to 1164 in the S&P, followed by a 3 wave correction. From the top of this correction (which most are calling wave 2), we should finish five waves down sometime this week, maybe at S&P 1125. After this, according to the bears, we will get a wave 4 upward correction but, according to Elliott's rules this upward correction can't exceed the end of wave one which is about 1164. If it does, we are left with an ABC zig-zag from the March highs which means that THE ELLIOTICIAN's computer once again trumps the Prechter gang and we are off to challenge the old highs in what could be counted as a massive ending diagonal. Did I mention that a computer will someday be the Elliott Wave champ of the world because it has no emotions?

Dolphin

Thank you for answering my question with your insightful and informative post.

I greatly appreciate it.

John

Its interesting to note that Prechter's group did an about face at the end of the day on Apr 12 after the Fed meeting minutes were released and relabeled the short term count pointing up. I only know this because of their free week intraday service, so I can only imagine they have had to revert back to the old count a day or 2 later. At least the ELLIOTICIAN's count remained unchanged by the situation.... and time and price targets have now been meet for the possible end of the zigzag correction. This is not to say that the ELLIOTICIAN's won’t change as well from time to time, but emotion is definitely one less factor. Pretcher is well beyond objective reasoning at this point and has been for , well, ummm, a decade or so.

John

ELLIOTICIAN's highest probability count after the action of last week now suggests that the zigzag correction will be a double zigzag with 'W' completing the first zigzag down on the 18th, 'X' on the 26th, and 'Y' now in progress with an initial downside target of 1185.

John

correction 1085 (not 1185)

Eric Noel

I have been very disappointed with the STU recently. They have, on a few occassions, been irresponsible in their analysis by being ABSOLUTELY definitive. For example, last night they stated that because of the overlap between yesterday's lows and the April 26 highs, this rally of the past few weeks is "indelibly stamped as a countertrend rally". Well, somebody reading this might think, "geez, that's great, I will just short the heck out of this market because in a month or two I will FOR SURE BE rewarded". In fact, it is very dangerous to read such stuff with blinders. The STU failed to point out that the alt. to the overlap concern is that we have a series of first a second waves so the overlap is perfectly acceptable under that scenario - a bullish one. Any analyst who is perennially bullish or bearish and inflexible will crush their clients eventually. I understand they have said there is a depression underway since 1995 and the advice is to short the market. Well, shorting in 1995 and holding until today would not only have destroyed all your capitial, but you would be severly indebted to your broker as well. Very disappointing how they have destroyed their great track record from 1980's. Sad, in fact.

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