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« Son of Wolf! Wolf! | Main | VCs Prepare for Winter »

Saturday, June 25, 2005

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EN

Maybe we have started a third of a third and, as you point out, we should see steep drops over the next few weeks (especially if DOW lets go of 10K). But on the very short time frame, why is GOOG defying the gravity of this supposed third of a third? On the other hand, GE seems to have buckled under the pressure. I guess the Bulls last chance for this immediate up cycle since April is that the recent upswing to 1219 in the S&P was a B wave in an expanded flat, such that we are now almost finished C down. If you look at the Nasdaq we have almost completed a regular flat and the NDX could be characterized as a zig-zag correction, almost complete.

The one thing I have noticed is that these markets always try to satisfy the greatest amount of Fibo relationships so that a multitude of interpretations are possible at one time. Thus, to place heavy reliance on one count over the 5 alternates is lunacy. I am giving up trying to call swings more than a few minutes in duration in this market. Maybe the most sound prediction is that this thing will keep fooling us for years to come as it has for the past 5 years. Chaos with brief respites of order!

No bear yet

Correction should play out a bit more and higher...

Prechter is early as usual.....stick with Neely

Neely Forecast
http://homepage.mac.com/neowave/.Public/Monthly%20S&P.pdf

No bear yet

I've compiled the last several years S&P 500 timing records of the two analysts...here are the results....

1987 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1988 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1989 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1990 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1991 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1992 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1993 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1994 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1995 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1996 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1997 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1998 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
1999 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
2000 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
2001 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
2002 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
2003 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
2004 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT
2005 Prechter WRONG Neely RIGHT

No bear yet

Neely Count is working fine...

http://homepage.mac.com/neowave/.Public/Monthly%20S&P.pdf

From the April 17 2005 lows on 60 minute chart there is a very nice broadening top expanding triangle forming (A-B-C-D-E) which could take us much higher into September 2005 before an October crash eventually down to 1050 SPX sometime in 2006.

Expanding triangles are very bearish patterns and we are only in WAVE B of it.

BUY THIS DIP which will bottom in 2-3 weeks here somewhere between 1166 and 1200 SPX mid-July.

Achal

His counts on Gold and the Euro are not working, though, and STU has done a definitely better job on the Euro.

Achal

based on the public reports (I do not subscribe to Neely, although have done so for STU)

Achal

Glenn Neely does appear to have called the SPX to the dot this year (again, based on his public reports). For that alone, he merits a serious look...I went ahead and just bought his book "Mastering Elliott Wave".

No bear yet

Neely isnt perfect, but I do like his rigid logic and clean scientific approach.

His book is good. One can never own too many books. There are alot of rules and patterns in there you will recognize while trading.

I personally see no need to label this corrective rally with F and G waves? WTF? But it works for him.

He doesnt write about F and G waves in his book. These can all be labeled as A-B-C-D-E and X waves and the count comes out exactly the same.

No bear yet

Here is a description of his newly discovered 9-legged SYMMETRICALS which are labeled F-G-H-I

http://neowave.com/new/neowave/content.asp?contentID=2016330101

(5th question from bottom)

L. Springer

Neely allows for bigger pullback before next advance to 1260-1275. Prechter, as usual, will be wrong about this one. Open gaps on tuesday action will likely get fill soon.

No bear yet

Yep.

Everyone check out the Spiral Calendar and look at all the big Spirals that hit exactly on 6/21/05.

-> F5 F6 F7 F8 F9

Last week was a big top so it will take some pullback and fill for about 3 weeks to launch new rally to 1256-1260.

michael dimenna

can someone e-mail me a copy of or tell me how to find " The Neely View" Dow 100m. The Yahoo link is no longer up. Thank You

Achal

What is the spiral calendar, "No bear yet"?

No bear yet

Here's description of it here....

http://www.elliottwave.com/More_Info/sc.aspx?code=oco

You can also read the first chapter of it here for free...

http://www.calendarresearch.com/chapter1.html

The 9th spiral number for example is 172.2 days, this was the exact number of days from last years 12/31/04 top to 6/21/05. June 21 was also an EXACT spiral from the 03/07/05 top among many others so its important.

I dont think it was the final top, just an important top thats hitting the upper channel line of the larger expanding triangle broadening top.

Watch July 17-20 as the next important major spiral buy zone which will very likely produce an 800+/- point Dow rally exhaustion run back up to the top channel line.

EN

I don't claim to understand NeoWave yet but can anybody explain how Neely can label the 1929 and 1987 tops as the terminations of X waves? (I think he even labelled the 2000 top as the end of an X wave). Under Elliott, how can such highs be seen as ending corrective moves (unless prices started from much higher than those levels originally)??

thx.

No bear yet

NEoWave labels both as "Double 3 Combinations" running variations.

If you have access to Neely's book....the pattern is on page 8-12 Figure 8-9.

From all Elliott perspectives (even Prechters) one can see on hourly daily and weekly charts that the IMPULSE waves (5 waves) are predominantly heading "down" while the CORRECTIVE activity (3 waves) are up. This means the trend is technically down but market is drifing higher.

Such a strong market where the corrections (3 wave ABC's) are "drifting higher" means that when the next impulse (5) waves resume, around 2014 when the current corrective pattern completes, they will most likely begin an "extension" which has ominous bullish implications for explosive growth ahead. Just as was the case when the rising correction ended at the 1949 BIFURCATION.

The Fundamentals also suggest this scenario. The coming hydrogen, medical and communications revolutions could easily take the Dow to 40,000 in 30 years.


No bear yet

This also means we have to live through 30 more years of Prechter saying 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 and 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2.

:o)

Dr. Edwin Fu

Major improvements in our technology/quality of life/productivity will require obsolescence of jobs and products and the concomitant destruction of capital. Revolutions require bear markets, the bigger the one the bigger the other.

No bear yet

From a NEoWave perspective the United States has been in a "bear market" since 1966.

U.S. Dollar peaked in 1966 and stocks have been in corrective rallies since.

Elliotticians under age 40 have never even witnessed a true advancing Impulse wave, any 5 waves up have been corrective.

48 year correction like this has built an Elliott pattern base which could last as far as 2060-2072.

R.J.

From 1929 top to 2000 the Dow gained almost 3000% 3000% up from here gives us Dow 300,000.

A logarithmic move over 70 years to Dow 100,000 is definitely possible within a historical perspective.

Rod Hendry

Yeah I read a book about Dow 100000 and I think it could probally go up to one milion in the dow jones before my kids grow up. I think you should buy good solid growth companys like Merck and Altraia/philip morris. My buddy who is a bear has been bleeding money for five years so I try not to rub it in his face that you don't bet against America!

LoneStarHog

"For those who are angry at Prechter for his Wolf! Wolf!calls,..." - Yelnick

Much, much too long of a list. Should read "For those who are not angry..."

Achal

I subscribed to STU for 2 years, and literally lost my shirt listening to his calls. The most vivid mis-call was last August, when even an amateur could see the bottoming action in the SPX at 1060ish, but STU kept insisting that there had to be another low in the making. Everyone makes mistakes, that's to be expected - is it too much to expect one to learn from them? From what I can make out, the REALLY good analyst there is Tom Denham, the editor of the European STU - he keeps his biases to himself and tries to analyse the price action relatively objectively. However, I suspect that, institutionally, even he cannot avoid getting infected by the pre-existing bias that exists there.
Interestingly, the institutional product is again, much, less biased and closer to a "real" service.

dimenna

You can still be bearish on the overall market and be long individual issues. Being bearish does not mean being short the market. It really means holding more cash and high weighting in certain sectors. I have been bearish for the lat five years but have done very well in cash, bonds, uranium stocks, home builders, some gold stocks, electric utilities, and reits. In the last 18 months we have reduced our reits and hbuilders and added some energy issues.

EN

EWI has two levels of products. The really good ones appear to be the intraday services where the analysts don't have any bullish or bearish bias: They just go with the flow. It was funny to be trading silver with suggested longs from the intraday service while the STU keeped calling for a crash in a third of a third wave. Then you have the guys on the night call for S&P futures predicting that this is just a pullback and, again, the STU saying it is the end of the world. I guess you pay for what you get.

LoneStarHog

Need I Say More? Day after day; week after week; month after month; year after year - nothing changes.

> http://www.elliott-wave-forum.com/forum/webbbs_config.pl/read/4057

Good one

Hear "Boy Who Cried Wolf" Bob Prechter & "Chicken Little the Sky is Falling" Steve Hochberg say at every 3 week market top "This is just like 1929 folks!! Buy our books and Newsletters to see why!! Subscribe today!!

Once the suckers buy the books and newsletters they read....

"Here at EWI we see the biggest crash since 1987 over the next few months. We are coming off a Supercycle wave 5 and have now completed waves 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2.

Good luck!!

By the way. We won't be trading it with you. We dont trade stocks, we make our money trading 'books for dollars.'

Thanks for the purchase of $400 in books and newsletters anyway!!"

samk

I see alot of mileage in Pretchers work, but because of the massive nature of his call, the timing wont be so accurate, not really sure that he ever said they would be!

Reading some of the above comments like 'you dont bet against America' just shows how massive the current potential for a crash really is!

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