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Thursday, July 14, 2005

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EN

When I first disovered the Wave Principle, I thought I had found the Holy Grail. Over time I have learned that the safest way to trade markets is using very short swings to get in and out because market calls only work two thirds of the time even if one is really good. So why stay short a market for a decade because you think a Grand Supercycle crash is coming? I bet even Prechter trades very short term swings if he is involved in the markets at all.

If you look at a five minute chart, you see triangles that blow out just before completion, rising ending diagonals that explode upwards (see the DOW this morning for an example), fifth wave extentions and truncations and all sorts of trickery that the market plays. I therefore can't understand why ANYONE could stick to one interpretation so religiously as some Elliotticians do when the best that they can hope for is about a 70% chance of being right on any one market call, whether it be long term or short term. At least with making very short-term calls, you find out right away that you are wrong and can reverse your position.

One thing I can say having studied Prechter's book and now Neely's book is that Neely has taken it a step further than Elliott and there is much to be learned from him.


ED

Ending diagonal!!! The nasdaq composite is about to complete an impluse with an ending diagonal. From the Oct 2002 low to Dec 2002 high is Wave 1, Wave 2 to Mar. 2003, Wave 3 to Jan 2004, Wave 4 to Aug 2005, Wave 5 is an ending diagonal. It's not complete. A of 5 Aug 2005 Jan 2005. B of 5 Jan 2005 May 2005. C of 5 May to present (the current rally). This count suggests we are still in an uptrend. The upwaves A and C so far have been faster then the B downmove. This fits this count. This is the last leg of this rally it should start to turn down soon in wave D. A perfect sentiment picture fits the diagonal. While we rally in C optimism came quick. when we declined in B sentiment quickly became negative. The next down move (Wave D) should be slow like wave B and not break the wave B low. Probably find support around 2000. I think the Fed will complete there tightening after 2 more rate hikes. When they let the market know they are done, we will rally from Wave D and start Wave E. The the market will quickly move to the down side and break out of the diagonal when Wave E is complete. This will be a cyclical change in trend to bear and keep the secular bear trend intact. I hope you can see this pattern as well as I can! Good luck trading!

rc

Great site!

I take elliotwave w/ a large grain of salt. When wave counts start getting labelled xyz of a of b of w or whatever, I think it's silly. If you have enough complicated and overlapping rules, then you can find a count to fit anything (incl. a random walk) and there's no predictive value.

I take a more eclectic approach in looking for patterns of 2's and 3's (v. common), trendlines, divergences, some simple fractal, strength and momentum indicators which I've used for a long time and a sense of market psychology.

It takes a lot of effort to get a feel for the market, and I don't have a good sense at all of it now -- or since 2003. But here's some big picture observations...

1. Isn't anyone noticing? The RUT has just busted to _another_ record high! And so has the NYE. The DJIA is close to it's record high. The SPX is down somewhat more than the DJIA, and of course the NDX/Nasdaq are still down quite a bit since 2000.

So... what bear market has even occurred? Mostly just the Nasdaq w/ a minor correction in the SP. Yet some here talk as if a IV has taken place and is already over... or just chopping it's way to a conclusion.

It seems to me, that Prechter is more on the mark in a general sense, as in At the Crest, re: a series of toppings taking place. Only a rotation has occurred so far -- there's been no bottom.

2. Real Estate is in a bubble. Not only in the US, but worldwide. (Contrary thinking is so accepted now that it's useless, so talk of a bubble doesn't mean it's not a bubble)

RE can't continue to rise as it has -- unlike stocks that can split and are just numbers, people have to be able to afford to buy a home (even w/ interest only loans). There's a rotation occurring within this market also -- to smaller homes, TH's and Condo's instead of SF's, and further out. But, this signals desperation and an end stage (I live in the DC metro area... it's ridiculous).

So... the big picture I see is just one drawn out topping process involving rotation within equities into some leaders and small caps; and into Real Estate and within to downsized properties as prices become unaffordable in many areas.

rc

A final observation... when the Real Estate market busts _that'll_ be the real top.

(Though there may be a frenzied rotation into the next perceived bubble, perhaps commodities such as oil, this won't have a widespread wealth effect.)

Speculators will stop flipping because the gains have been gotten, interest rates will rise and loan requirements tightened. And, that'll be that.

No bear yet

Yelnick good post.

Here is my WOLF call for a tradeable WOLF counter rally top 7 weeks in advance based on Standard Elliott and the Spiral Calendar.

FULL MOON OF SEPTEMBER 17-18 2005 +/- 1 DAY IS A MAJOR SPIRAL CLUSTER DATE FROM THE MARCH 2003 LOWS AND OCTOBER 2002 LOWS.

September 17, 05 Spiral Date also ties to August 2001 top, 1 month before the 9/11/01 blowout selloff.

Very likely SEPTEMBER 17-18 will see a return to 1987 SENTIMENT LEVELS. October 6-7, 1987 was also a FULL MOON TOP on major Spiral dates.

September 17-18, 2005 ALSO is a Spiral from the April 2000 blowout panic.

ITS BIG.

No bear yet

Everyone should be 275% short on September 17.

Here is some further reading material on the topic...

www.calendarresearch.com/autumnpanics.html

No bear yet

Yelnick wrote: "both have missed a bunch of calls, calling into question whether this is all astrology."

Stocks and Elliott Wave are highly tied to the seasonal Equinox/Solstice Lunar Calendar.

For example, Prechters June 21, 2005 "Wolf call mini-drop" was after a Full Moon Solstice event.

Everyone should own and read the Spiral Calendar book. Its main drawbacks are it is very "work intensive" and time consuming to calculate the dates.

This is mostly why alot of people dont use this great forecasting tool.

EN

If the STU takes up astrology maybe they will have better success? I noticed they refered to a Bradley turn date the other night.

Following Chris Carolan's work, this October is an "unfriendly" one for the stock market. The "dark days" of October 2005 fall over the week-end just before Halloween. If there is an Autumn panic this year look for the panic to bottom on Wed. November 2 at 1:23 GMT (Lunar date 8-1).

No bear til September

There is a new wave system out called "Reversal Magic" (actually not new, its just a modification of a gann technique)

http://www.reversalmagic.com/reversal_magic_005.htm

Weekly "ReversalMagic" is pointing to mid-January as a final low. Which makes sense because a January c-wave would balance the previous a and b. Also one of the most reliable Spirals is the F13. F13 from October 2004 lows ends in January 2006. Jan 2006 is also a very important 15 and 30 year Gann Anniversary date.

Looks like good bet for slide to end at that time.

Bad news for bears however, next panic slide is only an F wave which means Dow will be at RECORD NEW ALL TIME HIGHS by the end of 2006 into a powerful wave G up.

JArthur

How come Jim Crammer makes better calls than Prechter? Maybe he has more smarts.

AA

"No Bear Yet T S", regarding the next panic slide being only an F wave...isn't it possible that it is an X (i.e., as Neely suggests, that E finished in March, and that we are in the G right now).

JArthur

Ya . . . we are in G and it will form a flat since A was so violent and B will get the bulls back in check and get EWI to issue numerous warnign and then we take off in C of G to kill all the bears and make Jim Crammer a big star. Then we crash in X in fall and fool all the bulls. What a piss poor market.

AA

EN, and NoBearYet, here was a comment from a previous blog entry:
"EN wrote: "It looks like the c WAVE advance may have started yesterday? "

Yep. Neely had an alternate count of the b-wave low coming in early, looks like thats what happened.

Last obstacle to this 600-900 point Dow rally is July 18-19 Spiral Calendar lows which will probably be the WAVE 2 of C lows.

Next week should be a down week. Lock and load on Monday July 18... profitable 3 of C upside trading to ALL."

Today's action, though not particularly bad, does not look good either. Any thoughts or comments?

My non-EW indicators are mixed, and indicate a market of stocks, not a stock market. That's usually not a prelude to a 3 or C (broad advance), but then, I'm still learning.

S.Satrams

Astrology is the only technique that gives 100% accuracy. But one has to do a lot of research oneself, the 100% systems are not merchandised...

Still, the merchandised astrology also gives pretty good results. Start reading Merrimans free weekly column:

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

To get the 100% you must read Gann,Bayer,Sepharial, Jensen. and most importantly, you must understand the concept of VEILED LANGUAGE.

It takes many years of research to master this field.

A few of you that read this have now received the greates gift of your lives. The majority will simply laugh and continue their predjudiced lives.

the kid

astrology works because we're made of stars. most of the elements in you were born in a supernova. i don't like the way pisces is swimming these days but i'm tempted to nibble on SPDRs like a largemouth bass. Buy here. Sell in 2050 when the Dow crosses 100,000, not a moment before. Neely is "reely" good

EN

Check out Zoran's charts on Safehaven and the 1 for 1 which projects to 1257. Neely thinks we can get to 1290 sometime within the next 10 weeks.

No bear til September

NBY wrote: "Lock and load on Monday July 18...

AA wrote: "Today's action, though not particularly bad, does not look good either. Any thoughts or comments?"

We were in middle of the wave structure which is time errors occur. I changed that count after the very strong wave G rally.

There is a Bradley Turn date on July 29-30.

(That should be the X wave buy date +/-.)

Here is latest NEoWave progress chart.....

http://x1.putfile.com/7/19912221091.jpg

AA

Neely and NBTS (No bear til Sep) are looking good!

For NBTS, the acid test is the Sep call - if you are right, you will be the first forecaster I have followed to get it that right with that much perfection. I hope you do!

You will be THE MAN!

No bear til September

This minor x-wave finally looks like its underway....

http://x1.putfile.com/7/19912221091.jpg

I'm short here waiting for either Bradley turn date on July 29th or a minor "New Moon Spiral" due on August 3rd to produce an SPX 1200 low. (+/- 8 spx pts.)

August explosion rally should take us up to SPX 1288-1290 from there.

Should be fun.

AA

So far, the short idea isn't looking too great. Not a big loser, but definitely not a home run either. It appears that the overbought conditions are being worked off as a function of time rather than price - if so, the explosion might be up ahead!

EN

Tomorrow should be the reversal day. This thing is running out of steam and flew out of a mini triangle this afternoon with a new high to come tomorrow morning. If C = A*1.618 then it should top at 1244 Futures (September contract). Any upside is limited by the loss of momentum, it has to pull back towards 1200 before it can drink enough OJ to hit 1300. Shorts should make the money over the next week or so.

AA

Certainly possible given the sentiment data. What's your guess on how long it lasts?

EN

It hit 1244 but just won't go down. If the Sept. futures get comfortable on top of 1244 it will open the door to 1257 CASH in the next week. Otherwise, the pullback should last a week or two.

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