Wolf! Wolf! Setup - Just Not Yet?

The market has had an impressive two day rally which has taken it to the highest retracement level to count this as still the start of the wave 3 of 3 of 3 down. The STU said unequivocally today that the markets MUST drop on Monday, or Prechter's Wolf! Wolf! call is yet another premature howl into the wind.  A long-time Yelnick reader and buy-side Elliottician (meaning - he doesn't publish; he trades) with the handle DonTee passes this along:

Yesterday and today's action in the US and EU stock markets was impressive, if u r a bull - we shall see if it has legs; if so, W3 is delayed. If (as Prechter says) numerous cycles, mood, socioeconomics are in play, then we should start down no later than third week of August, after a likely strong seasonal advance now into Aug. This is perfect setup to harvest a significant portion of one's annual profits over the next 4+ weeks. The "generals" have these markets set up to harvest - yesterdays move played perfectly into the generals hands - then to lead folks to the slaughter in Aug/Sep/Oct. Analysis over the years tells me I make > 60% of annual returns in no more than 8 wks/yr. THEY HAVE THE TABLE SETUP & THEY WILL RUN IT!!!! UNLESS IT REVERSES NO LATER THAN MON ... OIL STOCKS, WATCH THEM RUN 'EM, IT IS A THING OF BEAUTY AND PROFIT.

Comments

[MarketNeutral]

Despite the pretentious prognostications of pusillanimous predictors, this market is not headed up or down. It is headed sideways. My models point to a near perfectly horizontal stretch for as many as 17 months. This means that, on a daily basis, we should see swings of no more than 20 points in the DJIA. This is the first time in the history of the markets that volatility is so low for so long. Sell options, puts and calls, and make easy money. This market is going nowhere fast. BTW, Neely and Prechter are both going to have egg on their faces. And eat their words. And their hats!

[No bear yet]

Don't bet against NEoWave.

Here is latest NEoWave count...

http://x2.putfile.com/7/18821200230.jpg

[EN]

"This is the first time in the history of the markets that volatility is so low for so long." I agree with this statement but the longer this trend continues the more probable it will reverse violently. Elliott shows us that nothing grows or decays forever. The VIX is like a coiled spring waiting to explode to the upside. The real options play will be to buy puts just before the top.

[No bear yet]

40 week cycle lows come in the end of this week.

Market is setting up for one of the nicest C-WAVE rallies since last October election rally (last time the 40 week cycle bottomed.)

2 Gann areas to watch this Friday and next Monday.

=> SPX 1190 AND 1177

BUY EM!

[EN]

Keep up the good work No Bear Yet. Love the NeoWave Charts.

[neutralphase]

today was last day of over 20 point move. sell puts and calls because this market is going nowhere fast. GEOwave is more important than NEOwave. also check out greenspan's new doo

[No bear yet]

Here is the latest AND BEST NEoWave chart.

http://x2.putfile.com/7/19211193474.jpg

Something just didnt make sense with Neely's primary count, market is about to get slammed here. So I changed the labels and now have a perfect logical fit.

Next big drop isnt an X its an F.

Study this latest chart closely, its a thing of logic and beauty.

Prechter did his first wolf call on F of F.....I'm giving a wolf call in 3 weeks at the top of C of (b) of F! Major WOLF WOLF WOLF and opportunity coming up here.

I want to thank Yelnick for an excellent blog and allowing us to comment. (Thinking out loud helped me to solve this Neely count, thanks.)

[No bear yet]

No bear yet wrote: "I'm giving a wolf call in 3 weeks at the top of C of (b) of F! "

Darn typos....I meant at the top of E of (b) of F!

:)

[No bear yet]

EN thanks for the encouragement!

I think we have a solid Elliott/Neely count now that we can all make money from here.

http://x2.putfile.com/7/19211193474.jpg

[EN]

This chart is very interesting. It seems to have us making an end to the "cyclical bull", which started in late02/early 03, sometime in March 2006 after a fall 2005 sell-off, followed by a severe sell-off in an X wave into perhaps late 06/07, followed by another cyclical bull for several years into maybe 2011 or so. According to Neowave, what comes after that? I know Neely is expecting the market to start a real run around 2014 but not how bad it can get before that date.

Interestingly, a March 2006 top coincides perfectly with the work of cycles analyst Ron Meisels. It also coincides with Sornette's Log Periodicity model for a popping of the real-estate bubble by mid-2006.

[No bear yet]

Thats same cyclical scenario I see EN.

Bull that started in 2003 should last to 2009-2010. (HUGE volatility in middle of Diametric due 2006.)

Long Term Wave Chart here:
http://x2.putfile.com/7/19311244946.jpg

After 2016 lows would be final grand Dow run to 50,000-100,000.

Martin Armstrong has done some excellent cycle work he calculates the business cycle to quarter-cycle intervals of 2.15 years into a final peak of major wave formation which ends December 24th, 2032.

http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/buscycle.htm

2032 would be 60 year Gann Cycle from 1972 peak and 1/2 Gann 30 year from 2002 lows, fits well.

[No bear yet]

Armstrong calculates 2032 as a 309.6 year cycle peak which last topped in 1722 at the top of the South Sea Bubble. (Which resulted in a 62 year bear market).

www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/buscycle.htm

Prechter is missing this GRAND cycle which fits perfectly with an Elliot 5th wave.

Yelnick (DD) asked in a previous blog entry if long term investors should be ALL IN from 2003. The answer is YEP.

[No bear yet]

Standard Elliott says this latest up from early July is a b of b of b.

http://x3.putfile.com/7/19409112492.jpg

Elliott is saying SPX 1288 around first week in September.

[EN]

There is an interesting chart published by Zoran Gayer last week on SafeHaven that notes that the US markets are full of false breakouts these days. I suspect today's move may end up being yet another one designed to suck in the bulls who trade breakouts only to dash their dreams by having this think come crashing back in the next few sessions.

[No bear yet]

Here's latest NEoWave count.

http://x2.putfile.com/7/19213451170.jpg

I was bit early on the labeling and 40 week lows, but its still the same.

Standard Elliott and NEoWave work great together.

[No bear yet]

Uploaded wrong file above, that was my experimental older count that isnt correct.

Here is the correct latest NEoWave count....

http://x3.putfile.com/7/19410560535.jpg

[Achal]

"No Bear Yet", are these your counts or Neely's?

[No bear yet]

Those are my counts which I think are more accurate than Neely's.

Neely labels March highs a (G) which I think is incorrect and way too early for the longer diametric which should complete around 2009.

Standard Elliott is also calling for a large (C) wave October-January 2006 drop which would be only be an (F) in NEoWave.