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« The Greenspan Wink | Main | The Markets, The Rates and The Wave Count »

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

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Gerry

Harry Dent says real-estate is still in major boom phase and won't top until 2010.

Predicting Bubble-Top only in 2005 may be premature.

a dose of sanity

Isnt Harry Dent the guy who predicted Dow 40000, yes thats forty thousand, by 2008? Hows that bet looking. Dont always listen to the perma bulls, or perma bears for that matter. Prechter and Dent cancel each other out.

the voice of reason

The real estate bubble isn't a bubble at all. It's a moderate, gradual growth curve fueled by rising population, increased productivity, increased standards of living, and increased wealth. I laugh when I hear sourpusses talk about a bubble knowing that half of them have lost what should've been down payments speculating on a crash that isn't coming. The emperor has clothes. They're called The Internet, Democracy, Capitalism, Global Peace, and a responsible, measured monetary policy.

EN

So many people have been scared out of their homes because of fear of a crash in real-estate but owning a home to live in, as opposed to an investement, is a good way to partially protect against a possible hyperinflation in 8-10 years.

Trouble is that most people can't afford the homes they buy because the refuse to live within their means and use the "home equity" to buy non-productive consumer goods. I've know only 3 millionaires and all three never bought depreciable assets (such as new cars) and never spent a penny more than they absolutely had to. Every extra penny was spent in furtherance of making more money.

Just wondering

"Every extra penny was spent in furtherance of making more money." What a smart way to live! Where did they get their free food? Soup kitchens or restaurant throw-outs? Did they live with relatives? Did they get their clothes from charities? Did they splurge and occasionally drop some "extra pennies" on cold oatmeal? Or a Big Mac?

Buy the Dips

Which Real-Estate stocks are the bears shorting here?

Print out a list so I can buy them.

EN

Just Wondering:

Yes. You are not far off. One lived with his 92 year old father and did not drive a car as it was "too expensive". Another wore 2 dollar shoes and took one vacation in 30 years of toil. The other drove a 1972 Dodge Duster and wore a Lumberjacket and Jeans. They were abnormal but better off than the 99% of US society that would end up in a soup kitchen within 2 weeks of losing their job.

MHD

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The U.S. is a financial disaster waiting to happen. It's just a question of when the debt bubble pops.

GetShorty

"The U.S. is a financial disaster waiting to happen."

You are a certified idiot! We are in the midst of the biggest bull market in history and morons everywhere are calling for a crash. After this bull market carries the S&P above 1500 we will have a 5% pullback. Make sure you buy the dips and ignore the pessimists.

If the US is a financial disaster why are the smartest market operators (i.e., the commercials and NYSE specialists) record long the US markets?

You are a moron that deserves to pay for Prechter's subscription fee.

GetShorty

"The U.S. is a financial disaster waiting to happen."

You are an idiot! We are in the midst of the biggest bull market in history and morons everywhere are calling for a crash.

Ask yourself this: if the US is a financial disaster why are the smartest market operators (i.e., the commercials and NYSE specialists) sitting on record long positions in the US markets?

You are a moron that deserves to pay for Prechter's subscription fee.

sammy

Prechter just went bullish tonight. Says where going to 11000 (or higher) in the DOW. STU just went bullish on silver. Prechter's EWT is pretty informative, but, he seems to be hedging his bets now that he go creamed with his crash call. My guess is we go up to 10800 -10900 in a spike that soon reverses. Same with the other indexes. Just to many people geared up and expecting a "year end rally" that it could actually hold. Just my thoughts. Sammy.

MHD

Thanks GetShorty for your thoughts. Now why don't you tell me how you really feel!! You sound like the kind of guy that bought NASDAQ at 5000.
Also, I don't follow Elliott waves, for they only tell you where you've been. You can never really tell where you are at within the waves, as Prechter has proven many times. Nothing will be 100% accurate, but even his high probability calls have been wrong for the most part.
Even so, he will be right in the end about the debt bubble.
So go ahead and enjoy the ride on this train of debt. But beware of the fact that it is going faster than Greenspan can build the rails for it to ride on.
No country in history has loaded up with debt like the U.S. has done and looked back and said, that was one of the smartest financial moves we have ever come up with.
Like they said in late 1999, it's different this time. Again, history proved them wrong!

P.S. With Ben soon at the helm, we should reach the next level of the printing press called,"ludicrous speed".
Should prove to be interesting times.

MHD

Thanks GetShorty for your thoughts. Now why don't you tell me how you really feel!! You sound like the kind of guy that bought NASDAQ at 5000.
Also, I don't follow Elliott waves, for they only tell you where you've been. You can never really tell where you are at within the waves, as Prechter has proven many times. Nothing will be 100% accurate, but even his high probability calls have been wrong for the most part.
Even so, he will be right in the end about the debt bubble.
So go ahead and enjoy the ride on this train of debt. But beware of the fact that it is going faster than Greenspan can build the rails for it to ride on.
No country in history has loaded up with debt like the U.S. has done and looked back and said, that was one of the smartest financial moves we have ever come up with.
Like they said in late 1999, it's different this time. Again, history proved them wrong!

P.S. With Ben soon at the helm, we should reach the next level of the printing press called,"ludicrous speed".
Should prove to be interesting times.

Confuseius

There's a retail recession going on in the UK and it looks like we're on the edge of one in the US. House prices are falling in the UK, Australia and Switzerland. Comments please.

MHD

GetShorty will probably comment that you are a moron!
With Prechter turning bullish, this is a bad omen for the bulls. The market has done a triple digit move in the opposite direction after most of his bearish calls in the last two years from what I've seen. Will be interesting to see if same holds true for a bullish call!

Prechter Trader

Prechter has turned Bullish, time to get 100% long here.

?

Prechter is now bullish??

When was the last time Prechter was bullish? 1987?

GetShorty

Debt, debt, debt. Give it up already. The ratio of debt to GDP is quite normal especially considering our evolving financial system. The "debt" argument is the dumbest argument the bears are using to feel good about missing the bull market gains. Prechter has brainwashed enough idiots with the "debt" argument and MHD is one of them.

Yes I bought the Nasdaq at 5000 but I got stopped out at 4600. Follow the trend you stupid bears and use stops to protect yourselves. How hard is that?

sammy

Was todays spike by the S&P and QQQQ the push high I was looking for? It came a little earlier then i anticipated, but possible. The DOW got close to my 10800 spike high. All three indexes have reversed on heavy volume, "distribution", will see by close. I'll be interested to what STU has to say about today, Prechter's latest EWT is one of the better ones I have read, he makes a good case for his bearish stance. In fact as I was reading EWT I was watching CNN Anderson 360, Prechter had a comparision to LBJ and Bush III last term, and CNN also had a story comparing LBJ last term to Bush's (NOT GOOD). Also, some of you believe that Prechter is the only one that has the same views on or massive debt build up. Just read Morgan Stanely s chief economist Shephen Roach, or PIMCO's Bill Gross, Jim Gross, Robert Shiller, etc. Theres's plenty of "reputable" people with the same views as Prechter (maybe not so extrem) but the same otherwise. If you have any kind of common sence and look around you it's not to hard to put it together. I live im Michigan and things here could not be worse, if you want to see how bad things will get just come to the Midwest, when the core is rotten the outer edges will rot in time. Thanks, Sammy. I am not getshorty.

Jimmy James

Should have stuck with Jim Cramer like I been telling you all along. Jim knows the way and that is all there is to it. Why do you bears keep killing yourselves? You like pain?

nils wathne

Yes, historically speaking, there is a lot of debt and not a lot of manufacturing here in the US but there is no reliable way to predict what happens. These posts are farts in the wind. This is really complicated stuff, like trying to guess how dice are going to land. It may be fun to ruminate or pontificate but there are no rules we can use that will turn history into the future.

JPM

EWI site says Prechter just issued another emergency special bulletin.

What is the emergency bulletin this time and whatever happened to the Bearish Diamond pattern they were so certain of.

Brian

The write-up on the front page of the EW international site says, near the end of it, that the greatest opportunity lies ahead. I would interpret this as the greatest shorting opportunity. The Oct. 19 emergency bulletin didn't pan out and they then went to the alternated count which Yelnick talked about in a previous post. If they're still following this alternate count, then it's almost over and the markets should turn down. The spx is projected to reach its limit around 1260 or so. Note that the Dow, if one uses the same pattern on it, is close to the upper trendline and couldn't close above the 78.6% retracement level. To conclude then, I would think Prechter is probably issuing another bearish bulletin.

Sean

I am confused here. Did Prechter just turned bullish and paiting a bearish picture at the same time? I am not surprised. I followed his free articles for a couple months earlier this year, but then dropped off, as I found that he is not really honest about his mistakes. He always boast about his accurate calls on some products (like dollar and some other futures), yet never mention about this missed calls (like oil would go down soon to $30, DOW would crash very very soon, bla bla), kind of make you wonder about his integrity.

The problem is, if one makes 100 calls on each financial products (up or down), 50% accuracy is just what every average joe can do, like flip of a coin.

MHD

Prechter has been making these calls because he is certain that wave 4 down is already underway and that we have completed 1 and 2 of 4 already. If the S&P passes 1265 area of the Fib retrace, then the probabilities are he is wrong about his wave 4 count and we are in a wave 5 up. This means their count has been wrong for years. As I said in a previous post, you can never be sure where you are in the wave count, and if you're wrong you can get your head handed to you by the bear or bull.
Prechter is probably basing this on debt levels and how big the credit bubble has become. The possibility of a wave 5 up is ridiculous to him because the debt and credit to fuel another huge leg up to new highs is beyond his imagination.
If the Asians continue to buy our worthless dollars and Ben is able to get the M3 to ludicrous speed then Prechter will have to concede that another final insane runup is underway.
It's interesting the Greenspan and Ben just had a curtain installed in front of the printing press!

MHD

What happened to Zoran?

EN

That triangle in the S&P is a running variation which should mean the thrust target will go to 1425 MIN, which would put the DOW an another all-time high. Further, it is obvious that there has been a new bull market in Gold and Silver which means we are not headed into a big deflation anytime soon. Prechter will get all upset when the DOW makes a new high. But Zoran has been calling all along that the real bear market has yet to start. We are still in wave 5 up.

Wave 1 from October to December 2002, wave 2 from December 2002 to March 2003, wave 3 from March 2003 to Winter 2004, wave 4 triangle from Winter 2004 to October 05, wave 5 October 05 to Winter/Spring 06.

write stuff

Why would Precter get upset when the Dow makes a new high? He might find he has more subscribers than ever as bubbles built on fear!

Joni

There are a couple of ways to view these massive turning points as they present many alternative counts but a break into new highs means higher. Likely that this is a fifth wave up, if it doesn't then we fall. 1st fib level brings us to a shy under 9000.

JPM

Richard Russell said he will turn bullish and go long if the S & P breaks 1250.

All the bears are turning bullish here, bad omen?

wavelogic

Market should keep going higher here into January 3rd-7th area.

Not sure where it will end up, but trajectory looks to be around that SPX 1330 area.

More upside left, buy on any dips.

Pete

It's good to see Prechter finally bullish here.


cjmorris1201

Prechter is not bullish. Don't confuse the man with his many merry men. The STU is not written by Prechter but by Steve Hochberg. The STU is a very different animal from Prechter's Theorist.

Prechter has been and is still bearish. Prechter only concern is the long-term though he occassionally dabbles in short-term calls by releasing interims bulletins. Prechter is still calling for an upcoming wave 3, lower commodity prices, and for deflation to rear its ugly head.

His basic advice, stay in cash and wait for lower prices. Anyone who speculates on his comments deserves to lose money since he advises most folks to not speculate on his outlook.

Pete

Ok.

It's good to see Hochberg, Allman, Kendall, the Secretary, the office fish and everyone else at EWI "but" Prechter finally bullish here.

EN

Either we topped out today in the 1270 region or this thing is headed way higher this winter. I count 3 big waves up. If we pull back in four, by on breakout over today's high. . .

8 days down, 29 up, 13 down? Then big Santa rally?

rconn2

You optimistic bulls need to take a good look at a semi-log chart of the dow divided by the cpi (constant dollars)... I'm sure many of you have. Stocks are clearly not the guaranteed investment that has become the false common wisdom. And, knowing nothing else, but the chart, we're way above the median trendline... an educated best guess, that I suspect most would make, is that the long-term direction is likely to be down. In the big picture view, we've not even corrected the runup since '82 or the steep climb since '95. We're due.

Forget the chart and consider fundamentals... too many to boorishly list... but it certainly _seems_ that many are unsustainable. Sometimes it's easy to overlook the obvious, to not see the forest for the trees. The US and consumer (sans recent paper equity gains in real estate) are in massive and growing debt. Our trade deficit with China just hit 200 Billion. We continue to lose manufacturing jobs month after month. We buy their stuff, they steal ours and loan us the money to buy more. The US is losing its edge scientifically and technically. We're even outsourcing R&D... the next step that _wasn't_ supposed to happen (the US was going to keep the high-pay information jobs). Our companies are giving up the purpose of their existence and becoming marketers and distributors. We're on an economic merry-go-round with ever increasing debt and liquidity propping the economy up. We're running on fumes.

Oh yeah... I'm not a perma=bear... that's what I see... the obvious. The US is degrading. The real estate market, for example, doesn't reflect affluence, as someone posted above... prices are up and lot size is way down. More and more people are settling for condo's and th's instead of the suburban sfh with the white picket fence (you have to be rich to buy one of those!).

Finally... I have some technical indicators -- reasonably simple ones -- I've followed since '95. We're at the apex of the 3rd of 3 downtrending humps. The last time I saw something similar was late summer '98. My _guess_ is that we'll enter a major downturn in a few months... say Jan or March... after the Christmas and small-cap rallies have fizzled.

I only trade a few times a year. There may be something to be had for the current upswing... but it's a little stretched already. Jan or March... will see how things unfold then. Oil is also interesting... it was way due for a correction... when it gets into the low 50's or ideally a dip below... that would be an opportunity. BTW, I'm one of those nuts who believes in Peak Oil.

-- rc

My Mom

My Mom told me to listen to Robert Prechter. So I sold my house and put the proceeds to short the DOW and then I will be rich and my mom will be proud, barrahhahaaa!!!!

Infinite Wisdom

Prechter will never be right about anything. He is way too extreme. He is fishing for extreme mindset people and reeling them in like cod in Norway. There will always be loonies. The question is: Does Prechter believe his own stuff? I realy, really doubt it. Did Barnum believe his own lies? Some snake oil salesmen need to come up with rationalizations to sleep at night but most just care about making money.

gem-x

Not quite. A lot of people interviewed on CNBC are like "I'm like sooo smart, I know we're at the top. I'm a genius."
Look at the HGX..ABC zigzag, at exactly .382 of the 3rd wave...recent rally broke the downward channel. If the HGX rallies past 585 in the next 2-3 months, we're going to get "the real bubble." BZH recently blasted past a new 52 week high...it ain't over yet....TOL is just one company. Bubbles don't end when people say "I know it's over.." They end when everybody says "we're going up forever." Imagine this scenario..Bernanke pumps so much fuel in the system that there's a new stock market bubble (5th wave extension) AND a bigger housing bubble (5th wave extension)...the "smart" people who "got out at the top" will have seller's remorse, and when they try to buy back the house...there's none available. Just imagine this scenario.
However, this scenario would only work if the HGX can rally past 585...

wavegenius.blogs.com/billions

gem-x

Wow, a lot of junkwave sites being advertised here...pretty sure many of them were my old subscribers..."ssssh..keep gemxwave our little secret while we build our junkwave sites"..

gem-x

This whole time...everyone knew where the information was coming from...gemxwave.com...the secret site...and now all this little wanna-be's ar running off creating their own websites..

I remember you wavespeak...on my site posting on my message board...trying to steal customers from me...you and mr. velo.

Pretty darn crafty...those fake press releases are a nice touch.

There's an elliott wave website bubble. And I'm just about to pop it.

gem-x

Pretty "smart" with your smart comparisons bullshit

stu mann

Many of Prechter's calls have proven wrong, but how wrong? I was one of those dumbos who sold the house back in 02' and went into fixed rates. I missed the biggest real estate boom in history, sure, but at EW's suggestion, I went heavily into NZ and AUS $s, both up between 30-50%; add in a 7% annual return, and you're basically at the same place as the real estate boom, minus the property taxes and real estate agent fees on both ends.

Prechter advised against gold. Those who didn't listen are up 40% since 02', with tiny holding costs.

Prechter advised against the Yahoo/Google thing. I agreed. I figured a 2nd time wasn't possible. Americans weren't dumb enough to get burned twice...but reading the comments here...I got that wrong. Very, very, very, very wrong, but since I don't have subscribers, I can admit I was very, very wrong.

Seems to me the big reflation has floated all boats - some of the leakiest floating the best, the Yahoo boat by 1000%. Even so, it still unnerves me that Yahoo & Google are basically identical - are they being groomed to be 'THE BIG 3' along with Microsoft?

as far as the future goes...IF (and this is a big IF) the big copper price top turns out to a be a Chinese headfake, well...that means Prechter was big picture right and deflation has been occurring these past few years. After all, gold/silver is only riding on the copper horse. If the Chinese really DO have enough stockpiled to deliver, then goodbye coppertop, goodbye gold & silver boom, goodbye AUS/NZ/Canadian $s, goodbye the so-called 'commodity bull', goodbye inflation.

but deflation doesn't mean bad things have to happen to techs, or that the DOW will hit 1200. Japan has had 14 years of deflation and their economy is far from collapsing - there's been no blood in the streets, no Mad Max scenario, no guns-whisky-ammo-hide-in-the-basement stuff.

deflation basically means a repudiation of debts - which means the growing numbers of retiress around the world who now hold the majority of global wealth are about to get very poor.

EN

Where is the Wolf when the top is really forming? He only howls at the bottom.

This move up in the US indices is a terminal, final bull market leg.

How can Prechter explain five waves up from the October 2002 lows?

Because, in the end, markets are more simple than all of the rules Elliott imposes. They go up until the public is fully invested and go down until the public finally panicks out.

I have given up on waves as the primary method. Just follow the trend and don't try to pick the top or bottom cause you will keep getting it wrong until you are broke.

BTW, the copper market is classic bull market third wave action. It can remain in that uptrend a lot longer than Prechter and all the deflationists think. Why fight such northbound violence?

gemx

I think what's terminal is your large short position.

reginald

All it takes is a few passengers with explosives up their butts and stocks fall 90% when the markets reopen.

gemx

I like your outlook on life.

gemx

Are you one of those guys getting his ass reamed thanks to Prechter?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=ArchiveSplash&param=archive&siteid=google&guid=%7B0543F5C6%2D01B6%2D4B6F%2D84AC%2D4B24AB24D5E6%7D&garden=&minisite=

"The wave two bound in the Dow ended four trading hours ago. Wave three down is beginning. Expect the market to develop into a crash, with panic increasing into Halloweeen and then culminating within hours. From that low, the market should stage a dramatic three-day bounce for wave four and then resume declining to lower lows for wave five. This decline should leave 10,000 behind for good. Investors stay in cash; speculators stay short. Gold and silver are reversing downward and will not provide sanctuary from crash."

vs. gem-x

gemxwave.blogs.friendster.com

gem-x

Prechter continues to F**K UP the phrase "elliott wave". That one call he made was on cbsmarketwatch, and everyone saw it. Another huge blunder that desecrates the elliott wave name and community. Notice his Elliott Wave Principle book on Ebay is selling for $1.49 each LOL. Almost free now...

MHD

GetShorty.... what happened to your smart money crowd. It would seem they have sold all their long positions in this Santa rally. Just thought you would like to know.
I know... I know, I'm a moron, and so are the commercials.

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