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« The Greenspan Put and the Global Scramble for Yield | Main | Beneath the Planet of the Real Estate Bubble »

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

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jackbqwik

I just found a 10-year CD with an APR of 5%. I jumped in heavy without a second thought!

sammy

Yelnick, it is hard to understand your posts. Are you bullish the market or bearish. Some of your posts get giddy when you think the market is going to crash, then on some of your posts you claim that the DOW is going to 36k. Whats up.

murray

Sammy, I can't make heads or tails of your post. Where do you stand on the market? Are you bullish, neutral, bearish? What targets do you have? What's going on?

sammy

I'm bearish, but nervous. I'm tring to tell where Yelnick stands on the markets. I have subscribed to EWI for the last 5 years. There track record the last few weeks have made me wonder if I should continue my subscribtion. I see the markets headed to these levels by the end of 2006-2007, DOW 5000-6000, S&P 700-900, QQQQ's $17-$20. That being said I have this raw feeling we are going to new highs (for this year) in the averages. Yelnick may be right, that they (his Greenspans PUT) will push (prop) it up until Greenspans departure. So thats where I stand, what do you think?

yelnick

Sammy, short term bullish, mid-term bearish. My posts reflect consensus across Elliott community, such as it is, not necessarily my views. What you see as 'giddy' was intended to be mocking.

Four views are circulating, two extremes: Big Bear Prechter's End Of Days Dow400 vs. Big Bull Neely/Dent Dow 40K+; and two muddle-through middle views: Small Bull 82W4 ended Mar03, we are in 82W5 vs. Small Bear 50W3 ended in 2000, we are in the B wave of 50W4. Prechter & Neely have long time frames, and Neely's view right now is Small Bear. He does not think we go below the 2002 lows. Dent's views are consistent with Small Bull but he has a Big Bull target.

My view is we are in 82W4 but it hasn't ended. We are in the B wave and should go up at least into Jan06, maybe Mar-May06. Then a slide into late 2006 or mid 2007. Then 82W5.

My close alternative is we are in 50W4, and it will last into 2014. It will look just like 82W4 until after 2008 election, and then may slip and slide to a lower low. So no need to resolve the two views until then.

The key is that all manias retrace. Issue here is whether the mania began in 1994 or 1998. If 1994 then we will see Dow4k/SP400/Naz747. If 1998 then we were close enough to the bottom in 2002 that at worst we see Dow6k/SP600/Naz1k.

mrmajix

Doesn't EWT require free markets to accurately measure wave patterns? It seems to me intervention by the central banks in the S&P, gold and currency markets null and voids the predictive nature of EWT. Prechter will not aknowledge open market activity because he knows it undermines his foundation. Now even the one market the Fed openly intervened in is so skewed that Greenspan even admits short term rates have almost no effect on long term rates. Looks like this way of measuring the bond market went the way of P/E ratios and dividend yields in stocks.

EN

This market is DEAD. It has been DEAD for 22 months now. It is just not moving one way or another. What does this mean I do not know but it ain't no bull nor no bear. It is DEAD which is why it is so funny to see such extreme emotions and opinion about its movement.

Nathan

The market is going to spike, then collapse, then muddle along for 15-25 years. I think we make a low at NAZ 125 in a year or two.

Anatoly Nathan

Rodney

Here's some news that should get you thinking: Bernake's going to have fun cranking the M3 printing presses sky high once we don't have to publish M3 stats after March 2006.

From the fed today:

"On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.

Rodney

Here's some news that should get you thinking: Bernake's going to have fun cranking the M3 printing presses sky high once we don't have to publish M3 stats after March 2006.

From the fed today:

"On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.

Joni

To my mind there have been 3 waves up from the 7200 point.
I believe we have put in Wave "A" and now we are in Wave "B" (third movement up) meaning that we should have an upwards retracement that typically should not exceed the W5 peak at around the 11000 mark.
Then we welcome C wave with a first stop at 8900.
It's hard to ignore the EW up from this point. By the way as far as I am concerned the "RULES" for EWT are not always true only typical. This is why people get so hung up on it.
Just like there are irregular corrections there are irregular waves, why can't people make that logical link? Well your reading it here so it must have some validity, so factor this and you might see it. Rules are helpful but rules in reality are only in the heads of people.

tony caldaro

We're in a bull market guys.
Staying bearish will cost you money...your choice :)

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