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« Prechter Rebuts - Silver Substantiates | Main | More Breaking News - Now Its Gold That Has Peaked »

Sunday, April 23, 2006


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Good for pulling it all together Yelnick. Very interesting. . . When none of the Ellioticians can agree you are in the middle of the trend. Thus, the best part of the move from 2002 is well behind us. Elliott is most useful at the end of a trend when there are precious few choices in terms of counts. I think the major clue that this thing is over for the rest of the year is if and when the SPX breaks under 1245. Until then, the monthly trend is up and when you look at the intraday PC ratio anytime there is any selling it spikes over 1 putting a floor under this market. For this market to be "ready" to correct hard, we need to see a few 200 point DOW days, that will be the clue that the bulls are losing control. A third wave crash is foolish talk and complete nonesense. That sort of predicition is for selling books to the neurotics. Likely secular bear market 4th wave and we are now halfway thru wave B, as Neely predicts. That means a B wave of B back to 1060 SPX and then another C wave rally to the old highs before C of 4 can start. But what is the point? Why not trade the trend and make money? Predicting using Elliott means you are wrong 50% of the time . . . Does anybody remember Occam's Razor?

tony caldaro

Hi Yelnick,

Nice summation.
All I can state, at this point, is that we are still in a bull market with at least several more intermediate term advances ahead of us.
Where it ends, and when it ends, depends on an enormous amount of variables. However, the finest part of OEW is that it will pinpoint the final intermediate term advance weeks to months before it occurs. Until then, let the bears beware :)


What a relief!
The end of the world has been postponed till at least 2008. We can store the Kool-Aid away!
At least until then!

Paul archive

March 23, 2003

Crude Oil. The Short Term Update usually doesn't analyze crude prices, unless it (or any other major market) presents a special opportunity. Such was the case on February 28, when crude was flirting with $40 a barrel. But sentiment and several technical indicators suggested that the spike to three-year highs was nearly over. The STU said, "Oil appears to be topping near current prices, with the next move a decline toward ... the 30-31 area." Since then, crude's decline has taken prices below $29.

Gold. On February 4, gold's rally had taken prices to nearly $380. But that very day, the STU said sentiment had built up to near-record extremes. Subscribers read this: "A small spark should result in an explosion (or should I say implosion in price). When gold's reversal lower does materialize, it is likely to be sharper and swifter than most can imagine.... We remain bearish gold." Since then, gold has fallen to $333.


Clear-headed, rational analysis is hard to come by, now more than ever. But the forecasts above were as clear-headed as you can find. They also had the virtue of being correct.

The current Short Term Update is online right now, and you can be reading it within minutes. Follow the fast steps below to see our latest forecasts.

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