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« Watch the Dollar | Main | YE$, The Dollar Gets Interest-ing »

Monday, May 15, 2006


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tony caldaro

Hi Yelnick,

You're celebrating the top in stocks, before the top? Even some bulls are throwing the towel. Interesting!
Well this bull is throwing in the matador. It's not over yet, it's only a wave 4 correction.


Sell in May and go away? Maybe but nobody knows for sure. I know many bears thru in the towel when it appeared a foregone conclusion that the DOW was going to take out the old high. One thing is for sure, if stox have not topped for this year, then the "correction" in 2007 will be very dramatic. Good blog. . .


Tony... I'm glad you found that crystal ball I've been looking for. Please keep me updated so I can invest in that direction. As for some bulls throwing in the towel, I've only seen bears waving the white flag as of last week. If some bulls are giving up that's quite a quick change. Usually the bulls give up only after losing most of their money, and saying it's only a correction all the way down. Then they sell and you know the bottom is coming soon.


Yelnick... thanks for reminding us how the wolf story ends!



How do you figure a wave 4? Was wave 3 Oct. rally to May highs? All very interesting but I'm trading a 1 min chart so I see lots of "crashes" up and down.


dow going sideways and up


The past few weeks parabolic rise was probably influenced by Jupiter/Uranus/Mars GRAND trine, the drop after the exact aspect (7 May 06) is a probably a consequence of post TRINE effect in play. The astro forces are affecting the masses collectively, and the Elliott patterns picked that up remarkably in most markets.

Moral of the Fable

The Boy Who Cried Wolf - by Aesop

A liar will not be believed, even when telling the truth.
There was a Shepherd Boy who tended his sheep at the foot of a mountain near a dark forest. It was lonely for him, so he devised a plan to get a little company. He rushed down towards the village calling out "Wolf, Wolf," and the villagers came out to meet him. This pleased the boy so much that a few days after he tried the same trick, and again the villagers came to his help. Shortly after this a Wolf actually did come out from the forest. The boy cried out "Wolf, Wolf," still louder than before. But this time the villagers, who had been fooled twice before, thought the boy was again lying, and nobody came to his aid. So the Wolf made a good meal off the boy's flock.

Townsend version (The Shepherd's Boy and The Wolf)

A shepherd-boy, who watched a flock of sheep near a village, brought out the villagers three or four times by crying out, "Wolf! Wolf!" and when his neighbors came to help him, laughed at them for their pains. The Wolf, however, did truly come at last. The Shepherd-boy, now really alarmed, shouted in an agony of terror: "Pray, do come and help me; the Wolf is killing the sheep"; but no one paid any heed to his cries, nor rendered any assistance. The Wolf, having no cause of fear, at his leisure lacerated or destroyed the whole flock.


There is no believing a liar, even when he speaks the truth.


Hi Guys. Thanks to Yelnick for posting the last couple of market updates. I just want to make clear to everyone what I see in my work. Maybe I didn't say it well, or some aren't reading the whole articles. The main thing about this top call is confirmation. It's my first call for a possible important high and the market delivered! We put a lot of Elliott/Gann/Fib work on that call and the Market knew where Price and Time met. That still doesn't have me saying the top is in. Now we need confirmation. We did get initial confirmation from price action but you can't say that this market hasn't done that many times before. I want to at least see 1275 get taken out. That would shift odds to an important top is in. I'm not in the camp that the market is going to crash or go to 500, I'll leave that to all the guys that have been wrong all these years, and there are many. I am saying if that happens, we should have the first decent pullback in a while and as it unfolds we will take clues out of it and try to place it within the larger count. It can become a smaller structure that may be needed, or a larger year long drip down. Getting married to a certain count is the problem Elliotticians have imo. Removing your bias, and getting confirmation is an important part of Elliott wave that very few use. With that said, if we don't take out 1275ish on the next attempt lower, the top might not be in and we might be soaring into a new high. I probably will be looking for the same setup into that high as I was last week. So, the thinking is the same, except there could be another push left to really have some bears capitulate. IF we start building strength going into that high, the call is wrong. It wouldn't be the end of the world since it was the first time attempting to call such a turn :-) One of the main reasons for allowing for another high was posted 2 weeks ago. I think the Dow really wants to reach higher. If you look at a Dow chart, it could be going down only in its 4th wave of a Diagonal, with more wiggle room then the S&P has. Bottom line, IF we go poke a bit lower soon, we have no reason to stop if a high is in. If we catch support after the S&P or Dow make a slight new low, watch out!



Taking a cue from Mr. Glenn Neely . . . most major corrections are ushered in by an expanding environment such as an expanding triangle. Given the very bearish put/call ratios over the last few days, it would not be a surprise to see a 60-70 retrace in the blue chips and then another MORE violent collapse and each swing gets more and more volatile and scary and the BAD NEWS comes out during the last most violent sell-off of wave E. If this thing does not take off south by the end of this week, we are probably either not done making the highs for 2006 OR we have started the expanding correction I just described.


To summarize...

We predict the market will go lower or as the case may be it may go higher first. In either case we will claim that we predicted the market action correctly in either case.


Spwaver, EN, others-- Thanks a lot for the commentary and ideas. It sounds like your best guesses are for significant selloffs soon. Am I right? Would new highs negate that?


it would be interesting to get some of your site viewers/opinion makers to post on the delta society opinions on stocks,gold, etc... their theory is based on time cycles based on the moon phases. w.d.gann theory/opinions would also make for another good contribution to the discussions. it would be interesting to see how they perform compared to the various waver services your excellent site covers.
keep up the good work,


Tony, the volatility we now see is what we should be seeing during a topping process. It always bounces, and the bounce may go 78% and look like a double top. It may be a wave 4, with a Dow high to follow. Prechter seems to think it will just drop like a rock, but then he always does until it doesn't. I think EN's comment sets forth a situation worth watching - at a larger scale, that widening is just what happened before this top, and we might see it again at a smaller scale. What is clear is that the fun is beginning, finally! This from the WSJ today:

"[C]opper prices fell by 7%, tin prices by 8.6% and zinc by 11%, though they recovered a bit later in New York. New York futures contracts for oil dropped 3.7% -- to below $70 a barrel -- and gold was off 3.8%, the biggest percentage decline in two years. The U.S. dollar rose against the likes of Turkey's lira (by 6.1%), the South African rand (3%) and the Indonesian rupiah (3.7%), as the Financial Times notes. And emerging-market stocks like those in Russia and India also took a hit, as the Los Angeles Times points out."

tony caldaro

EN wrote: "How do you figure a wave 4? Was wave 3 Oct rally to May highs?
wave 1 08/04 - 01/05
wave 2 01/05 - 04/05
wave 3 04/05 - 05/06
wave 4 underway

SPWAVER (dominic) wrote: "With that said, if we don't take out 1275ish on the next attempt lower, the top might not be in and we might be soaring into a new high."
Open mindedness is the only way to approach EW. Way to go SP!

Yelnick wrote: " Tony, the volatility we now see is what we should be seeing during a topping process. It always bounces, and the bounce may go 78% and look like a double top. It may be a wave 4, with a Dow high to follow."
Yelnick, yes, agree! Volatility picks up during the topping process, the positive breadth should begin to weaken and negatively diverge at the top, stock selection gets narrower as less and less stocks make new highs, the TRANsports always top before the DOW (economics), etc. We're not seeing any of this yet. IMO, all the more reason to remain bullish.
GREAT posts, btw!


Well a new high in the Blue chips would definately delay the "topping process". If this is a wave 4, we could be forming a large contracting triangle such that the violent sell-off from the highs we have seen is wave A or the first section of it then back up towards the highs, then CDE and a massive summer rally up to 1360 SPX. We gotta keep an open mind but given the weekly cycles lining up I would think this is the lower probability set-up . . . We'll see . . .

A real dead guy

I never heard so much double talk in my life
The bottom is in as of now (2 pm EST 5-17)in the NQ.
Load em up


All you ew'ers make me shake my head. I put in an explicit severe st and mt sell last Wed followed by a lt sell on Friday (not wishy washy alternate this and that) and do I get any credit? Do I get a pat on the back? Nooooooo. I might as well share w/ my gf -- at least she's funny-cute when she says "I DON'T HAVE TIME FOR THIS!" Anyway, it was the 3rd critical point sell I saw since March, so 2 false positives preceded it -- though the first was followed by a drop but then a fierce bounce.

What I follow are these: an macd on a polarized fractal efficiency (basically an macd on a signal/noise ratio) -- sensitive and leading; another, my secret, though nothing fancy, indicator -- concurrent; and an macd -- smooth but typically lagging. When all 3 cross/near-cross in a time frame this indicates what I think of as a critical point. When this also occurs across time frames, then a major critical point. The market has been at/near/getting close to such a major critical point since March and thus the 3 sells. Then I also look at trendlines, divergences, and generalized patterns of 2's and 3's (that's my EW -- 2's and 3's). It's not rocket science. And mostly it may be that I'm used to these indicators, have watched them for years so have a feel for them. The majority of the time things are out of synch and I just stay out. Occassionaly things get exciting (like now) and it's time to trade. I don't actually predict -- no one can -- but just look for ripe opportunity and seek to take advantage... and if it fizzles take a small loss.

So how does the market look now (Wed pm w/ the market way down)? The indicators say LT, MT, and ST sell. Sure, I expect a bounce (it should be noted that when I say things like how I feel or sense etc. that's not how I trade), but that's not what the indicators are saying -- yet. And it'll take a good upswing to turn those weekly and monthly indicators around. Until then, it's a better reward/risk ratio to remain short. This is the end of the Oct rally -- obviously. It _may_ be the end of the rally since 2003 but we don't know... I just wouldn't count that out.

A real dead guy

rc..... pat, pat.
feel better lil buddy?


RC has a point about Ewave being crummy for trading purposes. If you want to make money trading forget ewave and focus on the trend and money management. Since a few months after the March 03 low, the monthtly trend has been positive. What is critical at this point is the low made on January 3 2006 which was 1245 SPX. If that gets taken out, it will be the FIRST time in the bull run that bias turns neg which signals the end of the trend but has NOTHING to do with ewave. If 1245 gives, look out below! On the subject of ewave, it would make perfect since for this market to rally back up about 60 percent of the recent decline to give everybody a false sense of security and fill some open chart gaps . . . then the REAL move will begin and it will lose about 90 points in a very short time, like a week. I think the move we have just had down is an ABC of an A wave in an expanding triangle and now we need an ABC up to form wave B of that expanding environment. An expanding environment will make it very difficult for conventional traders to trade because it will create the illusion of breakouts and breakdowns only to reverse and frustrate the hell out of everybody who is not in the know. Now, if that transpires, it will be one rare example of how ewave can be used above and being trend following technics


Associated Press

Gainesville, Georgia
Wednesday, May 17, 2006, 9:05 PM

Prechter Emerges from Seclusion – Predicts Dow to Hit Low of 161.8 by 2024…

The crowd gathered outside Elliot Wave International since Friday afternoon greeted news that the Asian market have opened to the downside with exuberant cheers. This crowd is made up of the most faithful followers of Robert R. Prechter Jr., the founder of Elliot Wave International and author of several books about the Elliot Wave Principle. The Elliot Wave Principle is a belief that civilization as we know it will come to a sudden end. The end will begin with a precipitous decline or crash in the world stock markets. Prominent Ellioticians such as Prechter refer to this crash as a 3rd of a 3rd within a 3rd wave decline. Prechter has been forecasting this event on and off for the last 20 years. Prechter, encouraged by the recent declines in the world markets, firmly believes that doomsday is now just around the corner and secluded himself together with his inner circle, in order to meditate on the final low point and duration of the coming deflationary depression.
Prechter emerged from seclusion earlier today and was greeted by a jubilant crowd outside Elliot Wave International headquarters in Gainesville, Georgia. He told his ecstatic followers and depression enthusiasts that a decline of Grand Super Cycle degree has definitively begun. He now predicts that it will end in 2024 at the exact level of 161.8 Dow points. He further characterizes this Grand Super Cycle decline as the first wave in a 3 wave Millennium degree bear market that will take out the entire universe.


A real dead guy: ya... except not sure about the 'lil buddy part.

EN: Ahhhhh... abc of an expanding abc whatchamacallit. How can one trade that?

I like reading other's thoughts and EW'ers do have an interesting long-range perspective on things, even if I've never seen any predictability. There certainly are inherent signatures to the markets. Any of us who've studied charts can readily pick a real market from a generated random walk... so this stuff is certainly intiguing.

How about we post real, explicit buys, sells and exits -- esp. the exits which make _all_ the difference? I'll start: all the equity indices - Daily: Sell; Weekly: Sell; Monthly: Sell. Gold - daily and weekly sell. Oil - who knows? It's at the bottom of its channel... interesting (I'm a peak oiler) but on a technical basis, not "feelings" I'll pass. BTW, I'm not posing as a great trader or prognosticator. I had a small short position that I exited last Friday (and so early while my signals still say sell) and with a washout from a previous false positive (I got stung by that vicious up day some weeks ago... came within a fraction of a point of hitting my exit... such is trading... it happens) I have a small loss since March. I'm wary of getting into a new short now... will wait for the signal to be reset. Interesting... a monthly sell can run for say 5 to 6 bars... that'd take us well into the Fall. This _could_ be a major downturn... will just have to watch.


Today we got that confirmation! We are so oversold here that this leg should be close to complete.


Breadth has been getting awful. I see the end of the rising wedge pattern for the DAX and maybe the RUT. Folks, that looks ominous. Anyway I'm staying on the sidelines till August. Then I'll probably think about buying puts to get ready for a potential October massacre. We haven't seen a 10% correction in the markets in 3 years. We've got expect one soon, if this isn't it.


Could Prechter be finally right after all?

Preferably, we'd just reprint the following excerpt from the November 2005 Elliott Wave Theorist and call it a day:

"If our interpretation is correct, the Dow will rise to above 11,000 before turning down again. If the recovery from the 2003 low were to equal the time of the [entire] market, it would point to May 6, 2006 + or – a week for the high."

A real dead guy

If you took my advice yesterday and loaded up on NQ futures you are now in great shape as the bounce that started yesterday continues today.
I will now be looking for a period where the NQ outperforms the INDU as we have just been through a short period where the opposite has occured.
Inflation, sminflation, a lot of noise. New highs on the way, plain and simple....

staying long

New all-time highs are on the way - What happened to Gold is about to happen to the Nasdaq.



What happened to gold has already happened to the Nasdaq 6 years ago.

Mohmmad Bin Tuqlaq

Prechter did make a coorect call, in November 2005 to point at May 6 2006 for a fall, But he has made an emomous amount of wrong calls, before and after. The these Elliot waves can be interpreted any way one feels like.
If your perdictions are wrong then you jut reintrepret the wave pattern to FIT circumstances. take it from me I have been following Ellot waves for a long time. and after many years it dawned on me - No such things as Elliot waves, its all smoke and mirrors. Sorry to dissapoint you all. Follow the trend instead of this Elliot wave Mambo Jumbo.
The market might crash or boom - Nobody can perdict this.
Just carry on with your lives, don't get influenced by Charltants, Magicians and wizards. Trust your own judgement.
Market Soothsayers can be higly dangerous to your wealth. In this regard Prechter should be Horse Whipped. By making wrong calls he has brought harm to many.
His site should have a health warning like they have on cigerettes packets her in England. READING THIS SITE COULD BE HIGHLY DANGEROUS TO YOUR WEALTH.

staying long

NASDAQ just left an ascending triangle. Elliott Fibs pointing to 3500.

Buy the QQQQ's now while they are still cheap.

Abdul Gaffar Laden

Agree with Mahmmad bin Tuqlaq this Prechter is an arse,
The SP should have staged some sort of bounce around the 1290 level. I was expecting some sort of stronger bounce myself, but we wentthrough it like knife through butte, today. I don't see any rallies of much significance until we hit 1250. That will be a key point for the bulls to make a stand. what do you think Abdul.

Wajid ul Rahim siddiqui

I think I mentioned this a few times in the past 5 months.

I think Osama mentioned this in his last video
He gave a count of count from 2002 (a wave B rally in a secular bear) is ending with a wave C of B triangle, there is no limitation on where wave 3 will end.

It could end below 1300, or it could end above 1350. Osama says he has no idea, using Elliott, to estimate where it will end.

But he reminds us, Don't be surprised if we see a strong rally once we hit 1250, especially if the Fed decides to pause. That could get this market testing the highs in short order.

If and when it does, Osama will be calling for for a major top.


Sadan Ul Takriti

asalam- al-lekum Rehamut-allah

My opinion is that we get a traditional bear market retrace of around 50%. others - such as the Taleban - are looking for new highs ther are arses like Mr Prechter. in my view, too much damamge has been done and the rally lasted longer than usual. just compare this decline to the rally over the last 6 months and tell me which one is impulsive.

the s-d line is teetering on its 200 day moving average as are the averages - with the exception of the nasdaq which has already cruised through it.

By the Prophets Beard! the stock market is just legalized gambling. only ipo's raise money.

i think that the sophisticated investors like Haji Omar have already exited or will on the next rally. analysis of almost any indicator in the light of history says that the odds are very much against this thing putting in a new high.

If it goes any lower much lower the Pakis and everybody who bought in the last year is under water. The sellers along with those stupid Brits in basra, will all then come on line.


This is a very directional move that Zoran would have referred to as a "bifurcation" for sure. It has been years since something this relentless has taken place. Everybody is waiting to sell a bounce but the market just may keep dividing lower and lower without any real relief rally of significance. Kind of like when gold went from 610 straight to 728


yawn:) to staying long & Paul

New all-time highs are on the way - What happened to Gold is about to happen to the Nasdaq.

What happened to gold has already happened to the Nasdaq 6 years ago.

what's already happened to nasdaq & gold is going to happen all over again! :)

Sadam al Takriti al Khobar

Aslam ala Kum Rehatmulla allah O Akbar.

this decline is wave c of 2 (from 1/11) of C.

or the top ended a large diagonal triangle from last may.

i'm going with the former until the 1253.61 low of 2/7 is taken out.

it ain't far away.

what do you think Abdul

Abdul el Jafar E Saud E Faisal

As Salam ul kum Allah O Akbar,

Beloved Brother Takriti

Sorry I was busy answering natures call outside my cave - While I squatted looking at the beautiful Afgan mountains I scribbled some notes
Have you considered starting the triangle from the August 2004 low?
If you do this, then it doesn't really matter where put wave b, because then the May high is the end of wave (c).c.C of the triangle.
: i'm going with the former until the 1253.61
: low of 2/7 is taken out.
I don't consider the triangle on the SP an official "ending diagonal" as I am under the impression that for an ED, wave 3 still cannot be the shortest wave, while it can be the shortest one for a corrective triangle.
Regardless, I don't think the triangle has ended yet. This decline appears to be wave d of C with wave (c).c.C being a triangle that started on 1/11, as I outlined in my post 2 weeks ago.
Looking at lots of individual charts, the odds are looking good that we might see the major top as early as June, or as late as October.
It all depends on the structure of wave e. Perhaps wave e will also form a triangle, further confusing the market.

your muslim brother

Abdul el Jafar E Saud E Faisal

Abu al-Zawahiri  el Abudallah el abudallah

Bismillah ur Rahman ur rahim Rahmat Ullah allah o akabar,

Dear Brother Yelnick

I agree with your comments and certainly late brother Zoran PUB (Peace be onto him) will have referred to it as a “bifurcation” I has been a long time something like this has taken place. And the brothers here are very excited, listening to the news all day and not going out to fight the infidels. Here are my comments on Brothers Abdul’s posting

: this decline is wave c of 2 (from 1/11) of C.
possible but unlikely to me. The reason is that wave c of 2 is too fast on the downside. Your count requires that wave c is a failure, i.e. prices should not move below 1254. That means wave c might be over or nearly so... according to Neely's work, when wave c is a failure it is never the shorters of the a-b-c sequence. I do not follow this rule strictly but it is worth pointing it out...
: or the top ended a large diagonal triangle from
: last may.
it seems to me, if we have a diagonal it has started in October 2005...
: i'm going with the former until the 1253.61 low
: of 2/7 is taken out.
: it ain't far away.
another possibility is that the entire rise from Oct 2005 low is a complex correction (double or triple combination) - it could be wave A of a larger flat developing from Oct 2005 low...
Osama says although there are many possibilities,, the trend is down, He will be watching the KEY level of 1245 – Brothers in Iraq are also watching this level.
Abu al-Zawahiri el Abudallah el abudallah


Hyperinflation: Wiemar, Germany January 1919 to November 1923
[Expressed in German Marks needed to by an oz. of ag. or au.]
Jan. 1919 Silver 12 Gold 170
May. 1919 Silver 17 Gold 267
Sept. 1919 Silver 31 Gold 499
Jan. 1920 Silver 84 Gold 1,340
May 1920 Silver 60 Gold 966
Sept. 1921 Silver 80 Gold 2,175
Jan. 1922 Silver 249 Gold 3,976
May. 1922 Silver 375 Gold 6,012
Sept. 1922 Silver 1899 Gold 30,381
Jan. 1923 Silver 23,277 Gold 372,447
May. 1923 Silver 44,397 Gold 710,355
June 5, 1923 Silver 80,953 Gold 1,295,256
July 3, 1923 Silver 207,239 Gold 3,315,831
Aug. 7, 1923 Silver 4,273,874 Gold 68,382,000
Sept. 4, 1923 Silver 16,839,937 Gold 269,429,000
Oct. 2, 1923 Silver 414,484,000 Gold 6,631,749,000
Oct. 9, 1923 Silver 1,554,309,000 Gold 24,868,950,000
Oct. 16, 1923 Silver 5,319,567,000 Gold 84,969,072,000
Oct. 23, 1923 Silver 7,253,460,000 Gold 1,160,552,662,000
Oct. 30, 1923 Silver 8,419,200,000 Gold 1,347,070,000,000
Nov. 5, 1923 Silver 54,375,000,000 Gold 8,700,000,000,000
Nov. 13, 1923 Silver 108,750,000,000 Gold 17,400,000,000,000
Nov. 30, 1923 Silver 543,750,000,000 Gold 87,000,000,000,000

tony caldaro

Hi Duncan,
Very funny Osama comments now.

Hi Mohammed,
When people do not know how to read the Waves. Rather than state such, they claim that EW does not work. I see statements like this posted all the time. One can not pick up a book on EW and magically imagine they will fully understand it. No more than one can pick up a book on advanced calculus and think for one minute they fully understand that either.

Gary Hooey

Yelnick! Found your OLD BLOG!!

Friday, September 05, 2003
Bullish Sentiment Hits '87 Extremes

The STU also reports that bullishness among investment advisors continues to rise and is hitting levels not seen until just before the '87 crash. Also, insiders are selling $44 for every $1 they buy, a level last seen right before the 28% drop in the S&P into the Sep01 low. This is what to expect at the end of a wave 2.
posted by dd at 9/5/2003 05:39:43 PM 0 Comments

Wave 2 End *May* Be Nigh

One down day, and the STU sees the end of wave 2 is just a few days away. Recall that we are in wave C of 2 since the Mar03 low. Wave C is breaking out into a five wave pattern, which is expected. The first 4 waves have already occurred, with the summer trading range since Jun17 representing a wave iv triangle. We are now in the final wave v. This wave v has subdivided into its own five-wave pattern, and a reasonable count could put us in subwave v of v. If so, it may top early next week.

STU says to watch S&P closely, If it breaks SP1000 to the downside, it marks the end of wave v and therefore the whole wave 2. if it breaks SP1040 to the upside, it should continue both higher and longer towards the 78% retracement level.

If Yelnick sounds a bit skeptical, recall that Prechter called the top all the way up from Dow3600 to Dow4200 to Dow5400 before giving up and letting the puppy run to its manic peak. The STU often gets aggressively bearish when given the chance, based on its longer term view of the state of the market. If the market were to top next week, it would not have retraced to the 78% level but to a lower, non-fib level. Yelnick recommends - watch closely next week for the reversal, but expect this market to run a bit longer and higher.
posted by dd at 9/5/2003 05:20:37 PM 0 Comments

Monday, September 29, 2003
Confirmation of Wave Count

Today went as expected. The initial down move completed a five-wave pattern since the Sep19 high, marking the end of wave [i]. The intraday reversal began a corrective wave [ii]. More serious downside to begin once this little wave [ii] sputters to an end, possibly as early as Wed, probably by the end of the week.

posted by dd at 9/29/2003 02:44:36 PM 0 Comments


'Major Bull Run' for Gold

by Don Wolanchuk
March 3, 1999


(Sarasota, Florida ) Timer Digest's 13-time winner of "Timer of the Year" Don Wolanchuk predicted a breakout for the natural resource sector. Gold, oil and the Canadian Dollar are now at the beginning of a "major bull run," according to Don Wolanchuk in a feature interview. The Michigan-based analyst argued the Canadian Dollar would surpass the U.S. Dollar in value during this rally, but did not say when.

"In my view, gold has finished a 17-year bear market. It's ready to blast off. Gold will probably take out the all-time high." Wolanchuk explained that the growth of democracy and free markets in emerging markets would power "a vast worldwide expansion" that will increase commodity consumption. "Basically, until free enterprise and capitalism die, there's no end in sight." Resource producers such as Canada stand to gain. Wolanchuk proclaimed, "Canada is going to be one of the prime beneficiaries."

Wolanchuk clarified why gold would likely head higher, "Everybody hates gold and all the metals and all the commodities. You can't have a bottom until everybody is out. And everybody is out of the gold sector." Wolanchuk believes we're heading for renewed inflation.


Asian markets largely in the red. This could spill over into the European and US markets.
Could it be the big one, the third of a third of a third, the 12th, hidden Imam of the Ellioticians?


Asalam Alu Kum - allah Oho Akbar

Dear Takriti

every indicator is grossly oversold.

sentiment's in the subbasement hiding behind the furnace.

it's hard to believe everybody's gonna be right for a change but it's starting to look that way.

i'm gonna spend a few days working on my tan.

good luck to everyone with guts.



Interesting to note that the anti-EWI commentary hit its peak just before the stock markets and gold topped. It's kind of funny isn't it: EWI get it right only once they've been wrong for an extended period. I guess they too get caught up in their own crowd madness too and it's a shame that the misses outweigh the hits.

But I disagree with their wave counts (don't we always) even given the ironic timing of the turn.

As Yelnick says, let's chill on the EWI bashing, even if their PR does almost beg it. We can do some better analysis amongst ourselves.


Tony -- What do you make of the nasdaq doing so poorly?

J Lee

The number 46 is awesome. :) ... so wise it is.



Any thoughts on Indian stock market? Has any one gone through
EWI's european financial forcast
may issue which has a wave count
for india index. I would like to
know which wave is India (BSE)currently. I shall be very thank
ful to you.


The Bulls are really trying hard to hold the battle line at the 200 day moving average for the S&P. If it doesn't out below!

tony caldaro

Query wrote: "Tony -- What do you make of the nasdaq doing so poorly?"

Five waves up from the April 2005 lows, and a 5th wave failure in the NDX which lagged throughout the 5th waves in the NAZ/SPX. The NDX has been leading the market lower, but it should be getting close to it's low. Been watching it closely!

Wazir wrote; "Any thoughts on Indian stock market?"

I follow the Sensex as closely as I follow all the Asian and European markets. The recent high was the end of Major wave 3. Since it was quite an extended wave the current correction is not all that abnormal. Would expect to see a bottom in several weeks and then a rally to new highs with the rest of the worlds indices.


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