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« Election Correction? | Main | Election Correction is On! »

Sunday, October 29, 2006


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Is it possible that Prechter himself is a B wave? In other words a sucker play and a phony, ab expression of dumb (institutionalized) compacency...

Dow Predator

The Dow Predator warned you last week.
The bear market is about to resume soon.

Expect a top on Nov 10 (Top Alternate is Nov 17-20).
We should be making a small correction to the donwnside before the final rally into Nov 10.

A perfect price, form and time aligment is happening on Nov 10.

Dow Predator


A Christmas massacre is imminent . . . sell short when you see the whites of old St. Nick's eyes!


In the words of Prechter:

"If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'There is something wrong with this market,' chances are it's a B wave."

However, markets just are... They are the sum of all participant's actions - there is nothing wrong with the markets. If the markets are not wrong then may be something is wrong with the analysis.

patrick neid

who really cares what prechter has to say? anyone who has listened to him these last 25 years is broke--several times over. what's of more interest is why are there people who still listen to him about anything. crash, crash, crash--with that as his mantra i think it would be time better spent analyzing why a person would be attracted to such a message. its akin to feeling compelled to knock on doors telling people that the sun will burn out someday. .........the market will trade lower by at least 50% at some point in the future but as to bob having been accurate in predicting it, not a chance. if you predict rain everyday during a drought you can't claim predictive powers when it finally does.

folks who tout prechter are usually rookies or on the payroll.....

Ignore Prechter

Sounds like a buy signal to me!

Prechter is an idiot!

Salesman Yelnick has become an EWI huckster

Yelnick is on Prechters payroll, check out the EWI links.


A close on the ten year yield below 4.50% would confirm we have seen a high in yields. The ten year yield should not close above 4.91%. Bond bull market looks strong. Expecting lower rates.

Garbage Man

Dow Predator - now I know why you love Prechter so much. You're just the same as him! You talk loudly and arrogantly about your own forecasts, criticise everyone else - and completely ignore your own mistakes. Blah blah blah "where are YOUR forecasts" comes the reply. Well, I actually share your view this time, but I'm not shouting about it. Chill out man. Ha ha I can just imagine how annoyed this post makes you. Chill out man!!!


Isn't it true that psychology majors chose psychology because they themselves are screwed up and are trying to figure themselves out, and therefore study all of humanity in a search for their own cure?

Let's go back to the beginning, when Prechter was learning his craft. He graduated from Yale in 1971, making him born circa 1953, three short years after the beginning of the super cycle that began in 49/50.

Wave 1 - early childhood, lasting until 1966, bullish, the world is your oyster young man.
Wave 2 - corrective, sideways, fumbles around inside a vicious expanding triangle
Wave 3 - saw it coming and was making money hand-over-fist, wrote a book and founded EWI, predicted the great bull run.
late 1990s- Wave 3 continues, the troubled-now-middle-aged pysch major wants to be right before anyone else, continually calls for crash, doom, gloom while all indexes reach new highs making everyone rich, including the pysch major who is now earning quadruple-digit subscription charges without having to be in the game. cost of overhead in early days before internet - postage and some paper - like a license to print money, the sheep hand it over to him
Wave 4 - may be the beginning, and the pysch major has to change his view to match that of a dead guy who posted for free. The pysch major succombs to feelings of despair and is ridiculed daily for being one of the greatest contrary signals in the market, greater even than Jimmy Booyah Cramer.
Wave 5, sometime in the future, perhaps 11 years from now - old man river pysch major kills himself as the last leg of the great bull market stretching back to 1950 runs another bazliion points north.

He'll die trying to figure everyone else out, like all pysch majors do, when it was himself all this time that was screwed up. Die young psych major, die.

Moralising Twerp

Coinflipper, ouch, I would never wish death upon anybody. It would be magnanimous to retract that last sentence.

Anyway, who would want to lose such a major source of belly-laughs???

Speaking of controversial Elliott Wave figures, you may all be interested to read this:

The injunction is even more fascinating reading

I have no view, but it's interesting to note that the guy's been in trouble before. Be careful out there.


I wasn't wishing death, but okay how about this, he just goes away.

From today's EWI persective, the free space:

Serial Killers Stalk the Markets
10/27/2006 10:40:18 AM

Here's an excerpt from Bob's October 2004 Elliott Wave Theorist that looks at the gruesome relationship between serial killers and the financial markets.*aid=2690*time=am

freaky stuff, all those serial killers starting their sprees during bear markets.


I think Prechter and Elliott Wave are valid ways of looking at the market and society. However, I think factors of the global economy have skewed its insights. Namely, the symbiotic relationship between ourselves and China. Until that relationship stops being so cozy the inevitabilities of Kondratieff or at least a major, major correction are not likely to happen.


paradyforprofit (cool name), that's an excellent point. I think the K Wave is being distorted by global imbalances (i.e. western prosperity, asian poverty) being reset. Monetary tinkering and a fixed RMB/USD exchange rate doesn't help the clarity of the waves much either. Elliott works in FREE markets best, they say. Chinese central planning, fixed exchange rates and monetary tinkering mean we do not have perfectly free markets. So let's expect traditional Gainesville-style Elliott to continue to give us bum steers.


Interesting concepts - paradyforprofit & Confuseius

So, the central planners at the Federal Reserve and in China are perfectly capabable of overcoming the "natural" market forces as represented by K-waves and Elliot waves! Is that what you are saying? If it is and if it is true, it would have profound implications for all those folks speculating in the markets and what they must do to to have any chance to see profits.


Tough talk from the Fed's Lacker is not spooking the bond market at all. The market is now sure the Fed won't raise rates regardless of tough talk. Now the market just needs to accept the fact that rates cuts are coming soon. This is when the bond market will rally hard. Stocks are still happy with lower rates. I'm still long term bullish on treasury bonds.



Is it possible the Fed will actually have to raise since talk is no longer effective?

When a dog won't come to heel on command it's time for the rolled up newspaper!


Bond market rally getting stronger today!! Wow! We still have an employment report this Friday! Could this be the report that puts us at new intermediate term low in yields? Even though it seems too early to me for that to be the case, we should pay very close attention. Bond market looking great long term! Could a top in stocks be right around the corner? Let's let the bond market tell us! See how investors react to new lows in treasury yields.


EventHorizon - Wow! You still think the Fed has credibility? They had their chance to tighten and they did not. This toothless Fed is done raising rates. That is the one of many of my predicitons I have no doubt about. Only now the bond market and the fed funds futures are finally starting to agree with me.


Prechter now saying the Dow can go to 16,000?


George H

Sounds like Prechter is finally adopting the Neely view. 2002 lows will hold and a Big wave 5 up to go.


Wow nice bond rally today!!! I hope not everyone is not missing this bond bull market! Friday will be a big day for bonds. They should sell off on the employment news, if they don't, and we get close on the ten year of less then a 4.50 yield. We can start to discuss December rate cuts!!! Speculating is fun when you are making money :)

Hal Charzwell

What is Robert Prechter saying about this market? I'd love to hear what his stance is.


Anyone have any sense what the folks at EWI are saying now? I wonder if their Pres, Robert Prechter, has any thoughts on the market action. If possible, could someone please find out what Elliott Wave International is calling? I'd be interested to find out about Robert Prechter, Jr. Also would be eager to hear what sort of advice Robert Prechter is giving people? Is Prechter bearish? Is Prechter bullish? Is bullish Prechter? WHAT ABOUT Bob Prechter aka Prechter? Prechter, anyone? Do you think Prechter might be just the person to consult at this juncture? How about Prechter? And while we're on the subject, let's not forget one Mr. Robert Prechter, who went to Yale on scholarship and is --aptly enough-- a Pscyhology Major. Unlike a lot of people, I happen to think that Psychology might play a role in market movement. Also a little something I like to call Sonioconomicics.

And furthermore: Prechter.

Hank Wernicki

The 98 Fractal top mirrors the 2000 - 2006 top which needs another spike up.
I am estimating at this time to be around 13,000 for the Dow and then the
crash in a C Wave. The current spike up is indeed a B wave.


Garbage Man

Isn't EW great? It's sold as an exact science but you can basically count almost any wave in any way. So what's the darn point? And then when the market turns, you have to recount anyway. As someone said, "its fluidity of hindsight is notorious", but EW still somehow makes people smug and arrogant about their views. Stay with the trend, and who cares about the count!


Hey WILLIE, you ask a lot of questions that can be answered with the price of admission. or the flip of a coin.

Prechter finally sees higher prices

The core to Prechter's analysis is Prechter's ability of pattern matching to the irregular tops before historic crashes that Prechter has studied. In 1929, Prechter can see the top as a B wave off a real top in 1928 (a few decades before Prechter was born) - Prechter says 1929 was a striking pattern of a little a followed by a rapid reversal spike b, and devastating crash c. Anyone like Prechter can see a similar pattern occurred in 1987 when Prechter was bullish, with a regular top in 1986, says Prechter, followed by the same short a, spike b, crash c structure. From this Prechter opines that we might be in a spike b wave that take Prechters account which has no stocks in it as high as Dow16K says Prechter.

Higher prices says Prechter. Woo woo!


Long bond yields are testing their lows just as I predictied. I am going to lighten up just a bit on my long bond postition and look for a pullback for re-entry. I wish all markets were as predictable as the bond market is right now. Hopefully when the bond market gets tough the stock maket gets more predicatble!! :) My name from now on will be cstradingman. Lately, I have been the man!

Dow Predator

Be aware!!
The 12,167 high on the Dow is a PERFECT fibonacci target. It would not surprise me to see that the top is in.
I still expect a last pull back to 12,220 (another perfect Fibonacci target). Nov 10 is the date (alt. Nov 17/20).

Bulls are about to learn the power of the starving bears.!!

Never,,,,,I repeat...never underestimate the power of the Bear.

Dow Predator


Dow Predator, hope that you are right this time. I have ante up my shorts yesterday on sp500.

Bill C

Congrats MC,

Do you follow the Commitment of Traders (COT) numbers? Commercials were heavily short the ten year. That might have changed in the past week which might account for this rally. If not, we might get a nice size pullback. Especially if stocks hold up.

Good to know there is someone else watching the debt instruments.

Here are those COT charts:

Dow Predator


I am short since 12,167 on the Dow. I have close stops right now, because I still expect a final rally into 12,220. If you are short lower stops to guarantee a profit. But once the top is in, the market WILL tank.
Do not listen the bulls, the market has not done anything special this 2 months, if you see the weekly picture.

As I say..I still expect a final rally, but the short term picture remains bearish. So I am bearish with close stops.

Dow Predator



It is possible for the market to go down here. The talking heads on bubble vision have been mouthing off about seasonal tendencies in the SM for months. Everybody knows about buying around October/November and then "sell in May and go away." Everybody knows about the weakest month of the year - September. Except this year September was exceptionally strong. Is it possible that the herd took massive long positions in September/October in anticipation of the usual seasonal rally. Except that market cycles are ever changing. Is it possible that most everybody planning to go long is already long at this juncture and the SM has only one way to go from here and that is down hard - at least for a few weeks?

Garbage Man

Today, the trend tells us it is down. So follow it down until you see a higher low. Easy!


Dow Predator, I cannot wait for the Bear party to start, like this one. Anyway, I invested in short fund like RYTPX and RYVNX, hold them, and averaging them. Not too much into the daily trading.

Watch out for the blowoff

Shorting tops and top picking is the most dangerous thing a trader can do. It is a rookie mistake. Top pickers have been picking tops for the last 4 years, all have been wrong. Be very careful if the Dow becomes a full fledged blowoff and runs up another 800 points here guys.

ABC correction saying more rally to come.

So far we only have an ABC correction off October 23+/-

One should not short a c-wave bottom that may have ended today, thats beginner and basic Elliott.


Agree, probably a bit too ealry to be betting on a top in stocks here. Bond yields will give us the first warning of an impending top. I would buy bonds if we get a nice pullback.

-- cstradingman (formally known as MC)


MC, so when you plan to buy more bonds? I am thinking if job report on Frida is good enough to lower the bonds, I am thinking to get in more.

Garbage Man

This vintage comment from the archives of Yelnick really got me laughing ... fond memories

Defender of the Truth ... where are you now ...

Salute the new all-time high in the Dow ...


Shawn -- Yup we are getting our pullback. We may pullback at bit more here. Its a good time to start slowly re-accumulateing our sold postitions in bonds again. The ten year yield should not reach 4.91%.

-- cstradingman (formally known as MC)


Garbage Man,

It is a lot of fun to go back in time and laugh at the garbage EWI has been flinging out there. Remember the diamond crash call? Take a look back at this:


MC, holly bond got slaughtered today! I am loading some at end of day.

I really do not understand why bond makes big deal about the job report, since employment is always a lagging indicator.

ISM Services, and Manufacturing prices paid all went down, and these are pointing to deflation. And Dr Copper is also in a bearish contracting triangle for months, which I think is close to the edge of falling off the cliff due to the just beginning collapse in housing.

Are we missing something here that Bond pant out differently? Maybe just taking a breath huh?


Their is a reson, Fed fund futures. The market now feels the fed currently has no excuse to lower rates. They are correct. So the bonds market will sell off a bit but hold strong. Definately not make new intermediate term highs in yields. Very weak housing numbers and a continued stong stubborn bond market will cause the Fed to ease in January anyway. When then market realizes this the bond bull run will continue.


Where did he go?

Defender of Truth lol

Calls Prechter a market master when he missed the entire bull market from 1988 to now? lmao, shouldnt a market master be right instead of wrong? lol


Bush is going to lose because it is a bear market. My theory of Frocionomics says that it is a bear market. It is a bear market, BECAUSE MY THEORY SAYS IT IS, OK? This is important: please ignore the stock market. It is refusing to cooperate with my theory. It is a dangerous subsversive enemy of the revolution and must not be trusted. The new all time on the Dow is a PHONY. DON'T BELIEVE YOUR EYES. IT DID NOT ACTUALLY HAPPEN. True members of our secret gang understand that the Dow is NOT actually trading where it says it is and it has been in wave K of wave q^2 of wave gibble down since 2004.

A real dead guy

Sure looks like everyone here along with Prechter and all the talking heads on CNBC are confused as hell as to what all these economic reports have been saying and or there supposed effect on what the bond or stock markets going to do.
Who's to say we can't have weak eco reports along with inflationary pressures?
There's a lot of money flying around out there with the stock/commodities/housing bull that we have seen the last few years. Now that oil prices have pulled back a bit and the housing boom is over it has to go somewhere.
Best thing to do.. block out the noise and follow the money and the trend.

Take a good look at the QQQQ and SPY weekly charts.
Money flow is through the roof along with some interesting candlestick patterns. That with all the bullish sentiment has been telling me a pullback is in the cards.. how much?
I would look to the top of that running triangle (SPY)that it
broke out of back in mid Oct. QQQQ looks to have a bit of support in the mid 40's..but that's about it, $$ to continue to pour in this market.

My thought for the weeks and months ahead.

Continued weakness until about Thanksgiving.
Dems to win on Tuesday should help this along (gridlock) but the effect will be short lived.
Mercury retro ends 17th. Perfect Sun Jupiter alignment on the 21st and Bradley turn on 28th. Many are thinking that these turn dates will be tops. I could be wrong but I'm going with a low around the 17th-21st with a strong rally leading into the Holiday weekend and a breakout day for the Bradley turn. This should be a DIA breakout (new highs) not SPY, QQQQ.
Early next year brings some more very positive Sun Jupiter alignments also.. Me thinks Yelnick is on the right track with the bull lasting through 2008.

Being a day trader my long term forecast really doesn't matter much I'm 100% cash most of the time, but I still like to think ahead. I had the last Bradley turn 10/11 pegged wrong, yet it didn't hurt me at all. Actually turned out to be one of my better trading months this year.

Good luck to your trading

Dow Predator

Dow Predator warned you last week.

The Dow has closed down 6 consecutive days!!

The best is yet to come....expect a last rally to test 12,220 on Nov 17-21
Then....starving bears will have plenty of food. Make no mistake...the bear is NOT dead.

Dow Predator

stu mann

My grandfather was fond of the saying "You've got to spend money to make money".

A better saying now would be "You've got to create money to make money" - example - the public's once favorite last action hero taking on 7 billion in debt in order to keep the handouts flowing to retired Californians. No wonder the Golden State experienced some of the greatest housing appreciation in the country these past few years.

Just as Arnold was busy priming California's pump, Mr. Pretcher was out making "the big one is here" call. Market crash on the cusp of a gigantic liquidity binge? Made as much sense then as it does now in hindsight.

I've got a copy of Pretcher's 1978 "Elliot Wave Principle" sitting on my shelf. The analysis was valid as an observation from a time when there was no interventionist FED, no Arnolds doing mega poor-to-rich cash transfers, and no sophisticated financialization of underlying assets. The underlying principle may still be good, but the application now will be different.

Meaning the Dow can remain at 12+K as long as the qausi-govt. support continues - as long as the Arnold's of the world have the support of "free market repulican voters" to keep shovelin' public assets into the feel good pockets of a conjured middle class. 12K holds until this scenario falls apart - which is a very, very, very BIG call to make.

It's not just investor psychology which is being 4cast - but possible social breakdown.

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