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« Prechter Swings at the Throw (Over) | Main | Mighty Prechter Still at Bat! »

Sunday, October 01, 2006

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rdneu56

I feel better now that I know what Prechter thinks. I need Prechter as alcoholic needs beer.

rdneu56

Interesting - I tend towards Zoran's view.

Thank you Yelnick for presenting this.

The Dow Collabarator


Ok - what the fuck? What good is elliot wave if these guys keep shifting the counts? It looks like Neely has a better track record but even he shifts his counts.

What good is this nonsense?

Stick with sentiment readings I say.

-The Dow Fornicator

EN

Waves of the same degree require 100 percent or more time to correct impulse waves. Thus, a fourth wave of the same degree as the precedding third of the same degree will require a MINIMUM of 100 percent of the time that the third wave took.

Here is the problem: you can't just start a wave count at the absolute high or low as a correction can drift HIGHER (or lower) than the preceeding impulse wave. You must start the count from the most violent move (faster and larger than any proceeding corrective move during the trend). This is difficult to do and why Elliott wave is basically useless during the middle of the trend and only becomes useful at the absolute end when clarity is seen; for only one choice of count exists at that juncture; but few will see it because they are not doing wave analysis correctly. Stick to the trend to make money . . . the greatest, richest market timers do NOT use Elliott Wave. It is for the intellectuals only.

The move we had off the 2003 lows is a correction UP. That means that even WHEN DOW makes a new all time high, we are still in a large wave four. Remmeber what I said about corrections actually taking out the impulse high which occured back in 2000. After the four year cycle bottoms in 2007, the DOW will continue to correct UP for years to come. Wave 5 will not start until we see a several thousand point advance in the space of a few short months or even a few weeks. Likely not for the next 4 years or so.

The Dow Collabarator


So I take it EN you're a bull ;-)?

Here's something a little easier to understand - Every 20yrs we shift from bull to bear secular trends. I find it hard to believe that the SPX etc.. will hit new all time highs until well after 2018.

rdneu56

The coin says: buy on monday!!

To all the readers of this blog,

I am sorry for my bipolarity. I am insane and I need professional help. Anyone here who is a mental doctor, plase let me know.

Prechter is my hero and he is also the devil.


Yohan


Where is the Dow Pred? He will flip bullish just as the market crests and crashes.

-Y

rdneu56

Yohan,

I suspect that he currently in hiding and is using my handle - rdneu56 - and he appears to be mad as hell. Of course, I do admit that I believe that he was full of BS, and I have said so in no uncertain terms - sometimes in nice ways - sometimes not so nice and as explicitly as possible.
Should I apologize?

EN

Remember it is EASIER to be a critic than to be correct. I don't really see a need to put others down for forecasts that don't work out. I don't call the weatherman a loser every time he says it will rain and it does not.

I wish old Dow Predator would return as I find him really entertaining. Besides forecasting, what else is there to do on this blog? It would be pretty boring if nobody offered opinions that contradict each other.

Here is something to ponder . . . what makes a market SO volatile for certain periods and then it goes to sleep for years? Remember 2002 how crazy the swings were on a daily/weekly/monthly and even intraday basis? Why is it so different now? Okay it is the psychology if market participants but what specific emotions??

rdneu56

EN

I agree with you in principle, unless the forecast comes packaged with the message that any disagreement with the forecast is indicative of utter stupidity of the person expressing a different view. That is clearly the case with the DP.

Critic

It is easier to be a critic than to be correct? Not necessarily. I predict that the DJIA will be above 10,000 ten seconds from now... Hey! I'm correct!

Now for the hard part. Being a critic. You've got to be smart and funny and fresh. Here goes:

I went short for a few minutes and it was exhilerating. Then I went long and damn near tossed my cookies. So I got out of my position altogether and read Elliott Wave Forecaster Tool, a great publication I recommend to anyone who loves the markets as much as I do. They suggest that there are Fibonacci relationships that govern the thoughts, emotions, and actions of the entire universe. Sounds scientific to me. I don't understand it all, but I appreciate their hard-headed approach. It's all numbers, like pi and phi and all that fascinating intelligent greek stuff. Lunar cycles, too. Did I mention that they're about to tell you when horror movies are going to be popular and why Clinton and Bush will only be one-term presidents? Yes, the ELLIOTT FORECAST INTERNATIONAL ADVISOR is the publication for me. I'm especially impressed that it's international, so if I take it on the plane with me to, say, Mexico, I can still read it.

I love the ELLIOTTWAVE SCIENTIFIC SOCIONOMICAL READER. I recommend it to everyone with $168.18 to spend.

Dr. Friendrich B. Gorentplatz, Stuttgart

These prognostications are most interesting and very scientific. Please refer to the scientific study of socionomics for a rigorous academic perspective on the universal truth. Lots of horror movies! Not so many teenager sex comedies. Bearish mood. Bullish mood. It's all moods, apparently. Fascinating, fascinating, fascinating. Thank you, Rogert E. Prechter, Psychology Genius of Socionomic Philiology. Your studies have benefited all mankind by shedding light on the Beautiful, Mysterious, Fibonacci Cycles of the Universe!

MC

Looks like the bond market is back in rally mode! Get ready for lower rates.

rdneu56

MC,

Yes, indeed the bonds are heading North. Someone is buying them - releasing oodles of cash - will stocks and inflation join the march North?

coinFlipper

Prechter's overdue for the Theorist the month. I think he's hoping for his crash call to take place and then he can just reaffirm his never-ending stance of doom. However, if the crash does not happen in the next few hours, watch for his theorist to have an educational slant this month with no reference to being wrong on the crash call.

Missed the coin flip today. Tails for tomorrow = down.

Dow Predator

Dow Predator is here and has been reading the posts on this blog.

With 92% bulls on the market you do not want to be bullish, however the wave pattern does not look complete in the short term, so we can expect higher levels for a few more days. But the bulk of the rally should be over.

But, as of now, we have not seen all-new time highs on the Dow, so this is not over until is over, and I have not heard the bell yet. So we will patiently wait for the final outcome.

I am out and waiting for a better selling opportunity. The wave pattern will become clear again, and we will have better trading opportunities. I have no doubt about this.
But If I had to take a position I would be short.

I have been quiet because when there is nothing good to say is better to be quiet. It is sad to see that most of the posts in this blog are now useless. The loser rdneu56 has now become the leader of the bashing and a legend among the bashers.

They are now following his example. Good for him! King of the losers!

Rneu56, you do not need to apologize to me. Just look at the mirror and apologize to yourself. You should be a lonely and disturbed fellow. I bet that you have a poster of Bob Prechter in your room. I can send you a picture of me if you want, so you can feel better.

I strongly recommend you to seek for professional help while you still have some brains left. If you were and index I would be 100% short on you, too bad you are only a useless basher.

Dow Predator

MC

rdneu56 -- stocks are a risky asset to be long currently. For several reasons:
1.) Stocks only performing well because bonds are performing well.
2.) Weak economic news is still better news for the market then good economic news, pressuring the fed to ease sooner.

Some of the bulls believe that the bond market will sell off and yields will make new highs. Other bulls think the Fed will ease and it will normalize the yield curve. The outcome is that the fed will ease in Dec. or Jan. AND the bond market will continue to rally, leaving the curve inverted. This could cause a stock panic selloff at any time.

And the answer to your question is YES the odds are that stocks will continue rising as bonds perform well. And NO inflation numbers will become suprisingly more and more tame. But why buy risky stocks when you can make money being long bonds?

Dow Predator

Go to www.bullnotbull.com and search for comments written by "Cornhusker" under the Open Thread about "Why Banks are so Bullish right now":

http://www.bullnotbull.com/blog/?p=68

Very enlightening to say the least.

Dow Predator

MC

Funny how right after my comment, stocks fall even as bonds fall and oil falls. See the risk? That market soon will demand fed rate cuts. (It could have just starting doing that today with the selloff in tech). The fed should soon start talking about rate cuts that could start the market ralling again. They will do that if they see the market dropping alot but they don't want to take that option yet. They may have no choice. If the yield curve gets too inverted and the fed does not act the market will go down. That fear puts risk in stocks. The fed at some point will run out of options and the bear market will resume. Right now that have options. This may not happen till Dow 12,500? or tommorrow who knows. So BUY BONDS instead!!

Dow Predator

I guess that king of the bashers is back and is now using my name too.

This post:

Posted by: Dow Predator | Monday, October 02, 2006 at 11:08 AM

Was not done by the one and only Dow Predator. I guess that the bashers are mad at me because I am short 100% on the king.

Dow Predator

rdneu56

I see that the DP is a lot humbler now, indicated his wave count is not clear at this moment. It was previously advertised as infallible through the use of proprietary oscillators.

Dow Predator

I see that rdneu56 is a lot more stupid now, indicated his brain is not functional at this moment. It was previously advertised as intelligent through the use of somebody´s else brain.

Dow Predator

rdneu56

Dow Predator:

You are a pathetic excuse for a trader. Your posts betray you as the sloppy, inconsistent, lying "person" you are.

I put "person" in quotes because I don't consider people who masterbate more than five times a day to be persons. I consider them to be Bonobo Chimps or some approximation thereof.

I hope your parents are rich or that you don't have the balls to trade. Because if you are taking positions you are getting poorer fast.

rdneu56

The last post

Posted by: rdneu56 | Monday, October 02, 2006 at 12:31 PM

wasn't me. I try to stick to the issue and refrain from personal attacks.

Listen to Prechter

You should have listened to Bob Prechter. He was right, we failed to make a new all time high on the Dow. We are in 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2 of 2. Intraday high of 11750.28 will hold! We will not trade above that. Then we will crash crash crash, And I will laugh laugh laugh. LISTEN TO PRECHTER!!! I love Bob Prechter. You are dumb if you don't have an EWI subscription!

Eventhorizon

Yelnik,

There is so much blog-cunting going on that it is impossible to follow what used to be an interesting discussion.

Is there any way that commenters can have unique user id's to prevent impersonation?

Thanks

The Dow Collabarator


Speaking of ewavers. Did anyone get Jeff Greenblatt's e-mails on the market? Like most ewavers his stuff didn't make sense to me. Fib this, impulse that, lucas numbers and blah blah blah blah.

Is he still around?

Sounded like he had some health problems a while back. Hope he's ok.

AA

Greenblatt is now at futuresmag.com

Four Year Bottom

The top will come in Nov, as the Dems have a good showing in the elections. The 4 year bottom will occur in the Feb/Mar timeframe. Proving once again that the market makes the majority look like idiots. Most were certain the 4 year bottom would be this month. Wrong again!

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