Planet Yelnick

Clearwire or Bust!

Neely posts that the S&P is about to run in a very strong rally.  Prechter's EWT today gives additional support for 2007 being a hard down year, based on a decennial pattern he takes back over for two centuries - and it may happen soon, from mid-March to May, quite possibly after a parabolic blow-off.   

Watch the tech sector for a leading indicator.  Clearwire has filed for a $400M IPO.  This will be the most watched IPO of the expected re-opening of the tech IPO window.  Almost this time a year ago expectations rose of a re-opening of the window, and the one-to-watch was Vonage.  When its stock tanked after a messy offering that valued the company around $3B, other tech IPOs became problematic.   They finally began emerging in September, with Riverbed running up to a $2B market value on $40M revenues and no profits.  Riverbed, Ipsilon, DivX and Acme Packet have all performed well in te aftermarket since then, whetting the appetite for more offerings. 

Speculative issues may be a harbinger of a top, but NOT when the window just opens; only after a run up.  As in 1995, when Netscape re-started the IPO free for all, or 1998, when eBay's IPO energized the final manic top in 2000, the speculative top may be put off a while to let the animal spirits run. 

Get Ready for Tech IPOs!

Dow Theory is within a hair's width (0.5% in the Tranny) of confirming a bull.  (What took it so long?)  January Effect gives an 89% prediction of a higher end of year.  Neely sees the strongest run in the S&P about to start.  Prechter will opine tomorrow, but likely will have this market overbought and near exhaustion.  Fibonacciman puts out a fine post today which sees a critical turn date ahead in the March-May period; he expects a choppy continuing rise into that period.  We can watch for a Neely fast uptick vs. a Fibonacciman choppy uptick, but in either case the trend remains bullish.  What to look for as a leading indicator of the trend?  Continue reading.