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« Howling at the IPOs | Main | Howling at the 1987 Parallel »

Monday, April 09, 2007

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tulku

Hello Yelnick,
It's nice and interesting to read your point of view. What a difference between your text here and Prechter/Neely fans Throwing F*cks to each other :-)

Yelnick: "In the Yelnick view, the end of A down from 2000 was Mar03, not Oct02"
tulku: Quite interesting. You have strong support at this point by german DAX and french CAC40 - both classicaly bottomed March '03. But NDX shows something different - it bottomed Oct'02. So it's quite possible we had bottom Mar03 in DJIA and SPX, but not NDX.

Y: "Thus, we are in a larger-degree wave 4 correction than Prechter's Alt 2 count, and it seems to be unfolding as a flat (although it still could be a triangle)".
t:This is it!! As I see it we finished Impulse wave Mar'00. We're in the big expanding triangle in DJIA since then, with A Wave 00-02 or Mar03,now we are on the last B-wave steps with a top somwhere in 2007, and then we should begin C wave. C in triangle is usually the longest one, so it could last even 5-6 years in DJIA. Even 8 years would be nothing special.

If I'm right here, we'll finish this triangle somewhere in...2010's second half. And it looks like we should have a muddle trough in US economy this time.
The 1932-2000 move was a big wave III to me, and we're in it's triangle correction, and this correction needs time. 2Alt is a kind of flat or double maybe even triple three, probably much more complicated in the future.
I don't believe in Prechter's Big One - Dow 2003-2007 action have broken this counting ultimativelly, and is very hard to see Dow's 2002(03?)-2007 move as an impulse wave.
Prechter probably base on the wrong reconstruction of 19th century DJIA, so this is the reason he is attached so strong to the Big One idea. It looks to me, that in Frost/Prechter team he was the weaker chain.

Y:We are still in wave B - the Feb top was a wave 3 of c of B, not the end of c
t: Exactly! We're making a kind of flat correction in DJIA and SPX now - look at the volume and momentum please!

A B-wave top in '08? I strongly disagree. What is something "in the fogg" in DJIA and SPX, is very clear in DAX and CAC40 - we have double or even tripple zig zags there, with it's last, final stages.
We should see the top in 2007, probably June/July.
You shuld pay more attention to european indices Yelnick - the Light comes from there.
Greetings,
Tulku

cstradingman

Agreed! Rate cuts coming supports top in '07 not '08. I thought the market top would come in the first quarter of this year along with rate cuts. rate cuts have not started yet but maybe a market top? I thought the top would be more decisive. The equity market is a tough one to call. So much conflicting evidence. Seems whenever the market drops prople quickly become bearish. The selloff last May was a great example. This recent selloff was a little better for the bears as they quickly dissipated. I suspect the market will find strong resistence at the highs and test the recent february selloff lows. If that will be a buying oppertunity, I do not know.

David

If you look across all indices it does seem likely that A ended in March 03 with a new low in the case of FTSE, CAC and DAX and with a failed 5th in the case of the US indices (even NDX).

Wave B in the case of FTSE (and SPX) can be counted as a triple zigzag which should complete in Q3. Just one count amongst many but market breadth has been sending a warning signal for nearly a year now.

yelnick

Tulku, I like your perspective. This could be a large triangle fourth wave, either 32W4 in your count or 49W4 in mine. If we have 1789-1929 being wave I, then this is not the end of wave III but merely wave 1 of III. Also, 1929 to 1932 is awfully short for such a major degree of trend (wave II). More likely it was a triangle through 1949. Prechter counts the 1933-37 wave up as 5 waves which makes that count null in nominal Dollars; but in constant Dollars he counts it as a complex 3 wave and hence allows for the 1929-1949 triangle, as well as an alt view that 1929-1982 was a giant flat in constant Dollars. In either case, 2000-2011+/- could break as a triangle in 49W4, since (rule of alternation) 49W2 was a double zigzag (1966-1982). Or it could be a flat. If a triangle, it could indeed top in 2007, and fairly soon; but if a flat, likely to keep going.

Keep a watch on how this breaks in Europe and let us know from time to time. For a top of this importance, there could be divergence across markets, just as the Naz may have bottomed in Oct02 while the S&P and Dow took until Mar03.

David

Neely in MEW makes the point that if A=B the final structure is unlikely to be a triangle. Something to watch if the market breaks without SPX making a new high.

EN

The market looks ready to drop right here. I see too many people who think of it as a foregone conclusion that the US indices MUST test their highs before it can move lower. So my little forecast for the rest of this week is hard down with a break of the yearly lows by April 20-26. The fibo daily bar count appears to support this too as we made a high in DOW yesterday which was 34 days off the yearly high. This move up off the lows is way to slow to be anything more than a B wave correction up before the next drop. But it has to start down right away or else we probably will test the highs.

About the longer term counts, who really knows, I have yet to see anybody who can be right more than 30 percent of the time so . . . If this does head up into the end of 2008, it will be almost as long as the 1921-1929 secular bull.

KRG

Yelnick: Quite refreshing to see your balanced views. One doubt:
The 2000-2002/3 action is being thought of as "A" and therefore we are in B; Could it be a major 4 and we are currently in major 5 (nearing its completion or completed in Feb 07)? Or is it too small a period to qualify for the major 4?

Harhuis

Very important video (a must see) for all traders and investors from Google Videos called
"Money As Debt" by Paul Grignon

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

rdneu56

Harhuis,

I agree it is very important to understand what money really is, but it is off subject. I also doubt that anybody here really cares about pondering its implications.
People here are focused on unlocking the arcane secrets of the Fibonacci sequence. They are sure it will make them a fortune.

btd

Elliott works best when combined with the Delta Phenomenon

matrixnewsletter.com/images/SP500solutionb_000.JPG

yelnick

A new EWT came out today. It does a great job of detailing the Alt count. Prechter has dropped the Alt 2 count and focused on his preferred count or the alt 3 (the Yelnick View).

EN, we may be topping. Prechter also thinks so. If we fall below 11670 then their preferred count stays live. If we stall out again, then a lengthy triangle is likely - the Neely view - or a flat.

KRG, I think we are in 49W4 - a big wave 4 going back to 1949, where I think this bull really started, not in 1932. This is clear from an inflation adjusted look at the Dow or S&P. 49W4 will either be a flat or a triangle, and should run out in the range of 2012 +/- 2 years. Neely has been calling for this to be a triangle for a while, and Prechter in his musings before the 2000 top thought it would be a triangle.

We could be in 82W5, after a fast 3 year 82W4 that ended in Mar03, a lesser degree wave 4 than 49W4. There is a lot to support this view. 1987 would have been 82W2, an irregular flat which extended into 1991 and ended higher than it started. The long runup into 2000 is 82W3. Often waves 3 end in a sharp drop. In this count, we would be in 03W4 with a wave 03W5 of 82W5 to follow.

Neely (and Zoran) count the 1987-1994 period as a long triangle, which is rare if virtually non-existent in Elliott as a wave 2, although not impermissable; but that would put us out of any 82W4 in 2000-2002/3. They would instead count it as 95W4 - a lesser degree wave 4 off 82W5 which they start in 1995. In this count, 82W5 extended and we are still in it. As a practical matter, whether this is an extended 95W5 or a more normal looking 82W5 matters little.

do the opposite of what Prechter says to make money

If Prechter has dropped the Alt 2 count, it means that is likely the right one.

Sell in May and go......

David

It's too soon to tell if the 49W4 scenario is correct but, regardless, the Dow channels near perfectly for the period 1932-2000 as 37W2, 42W3, 66W4 and 82W5.

82W5 also channels perfectly as 84W2, 87W4 and 94W5 starting at the end of a long upwards sloping triangle.

On this basis 32W? completed in 2000 and twe are now in wave B of something else.

As if by magic, Wave A ended dead on the upper channel line and *explains* why the Mar 03 low is higher than Oct 02. Wave C if and when it appears should also rally from the upper channel line currently around the 10K mark.

The lower channel line is around the start of 94W5. When the lower corresponding channel line of 82W5 was broken in July 2002 the Dow lost 1350 points in a fortnight.

David

Should also add that the S&P appears slightly differently in that wave A from 2000 initially fell through the upper channel line from 1932 but recovered when it regained 10000 in Aug 2002. The base line of the weird patten since then has been created by the channel line itself so I'm inclined to think wave B from 2003 is a double zigzag comprising 2 ABCs separated by an upwards sloping triangle.

yelnick

Prechter has a $20 offer to buy the current EWT which lays out the alt count details. It's a money back guarantee! Click on the Elliott Wave Theorist link above on the right.

David

My money's on the preferred count as the rise from Mar 03 for me is a zigzag with a small B wave that shows up best in the S&P as the July 03 hesitation when the upper channel line from 32 was hit from below. The
B wave of the second zigzag (Jun 06) by comparison is relatively large as is required by rule of alternation.

Will the SSEC lead the way again with a big overnight fall?

EN

Well, we got the little sell-off today that I predicted last night but much, much more is required to keep us on track. The worst thing the bulls can hope for is a move to slight new highs right now. The best for the continuation of the bull market is a nice move down to new yearly lows and then a special Prechter bulliten comes out that the crash has started. I would buy that one to be sure! Everytime one of those crash alerts came out I made a fortune by buying the market.

Seriously, this market is doomed if it moves to new highs anytime soon. It need to move down the 200 day moving average before it can go much higher. I would turn so bearish I would mortage the house to go short if it just chops up to new highs like the Euro markets.

Dow Predator

As I said a few weeks ago...I only see bulls everywhere.
No one belives that top is in. Now even Prechter has a bullish alternate scenario.

A perfect set up for something big to the downside.

Dow Predator

btd

Margin Debt is at all-time record highs surpassing the March 2000 top

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&ie=UTF-8&q=nasd+margin+debt+record

cstradingman

Wow it's really starting to look interesting in the equity markets. I think we test the highs then tank. If you are not a short seller, after the market rallies you can buy treasury bonds, they should do quite well.

Tim

Big Drop is coming next week or week after next. Be warned, and Be Alert.

This one will be big, if you know how to read the tape.

I think the 4 year bull will be ended this round. I am sure then many Elliot wave gurus would have to re-label the waves again.

The Bond Bear

Self-anointed bond guru calls for relentless bull market in US government bonds, yet the market refuses to heed the call. So far it is moving in the opposite direction.

Bulls Rule!

NYA Composite at new all-time record highs! Woo woo!

Bulls rule!

Bulls rule!

China also at all-time highs!

Doom and gloom top-pickers just keep missing the bullish boat.

troy

my old target for nasdaq is 3300

http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/05/nasdaq-gold-ratio.html

Dow Predator


THE CLOWN NEELY NEEDS MONEY....HE IS SO BROKE FROM HIS TRADING THAT HE NOW NEEDS STUDENTS SO HE CAN KEEP GAMBLING ON THE MARKET..
WHAT A LOSER!! I WONDER IF HE STILL THINKS THAT THE MARKET IS GOING TO THE MOON AS PER HIS FEBRUARY FORECAST.....

THE LAST TIME I SPOKE TO THIS LOSER HE TOLD ME THAT HE WAS GOING TO DELETE ALL MY MAIL ACCOUNTS FROM HIS DATABASE...I GUESS THAT HE NEEDS STILL NEEDS MY MONEY SO HE CAN KEEP GAMBLING... WHAT A LOSER.

From: "Website@neowave.com"
To: dow_predator@yahoo.com
Sent: Wednesday, April 11, 2007 1:02:15 PM
Subject: NEOWAVE: Save $1000 on Private Training

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Since I have no one on my waiting list for this new opening, I'm offering a $1000 discount (off the regular $4900 price) to the first person to call. You can reach me at my offices at 1-800-636-9283, Ext. 3. If you are interested, don't delay because these slots usually go in less than an hour.

Sincerely,
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Freeweek

"We should have the answer within days ..."

- Bob Prechter, April 10,
Elliott Wave Theorist

Bulls rule!

Bulls rule!

cstradingman

Nice rally today in the long term treasuries! The longer the maturity the better then gain. Good time to get long bonds and set stops at the lows. I don't know if it is a coincidence but "The Bond Bear" has an amazing talent of posting at the lows.

Bob Prechter

VON HOCHBERG IS BULLISH!!! SELL THE MARKET NOW!!...IT MEANS THAT PRECHTER IS BULLISH TOO...A MAJOR HUGE SELL SIGNAL!! THIS ASSHOLE IS ALWAYS WRONG!!...READ HIS LATEST FORECAST!!...I DO NOT BELIEVE IT... A MAJOR SELL SIGNAL!!


In terms of upside potential, the DJIA has two resistance clusters in which we should look for a high. The first is 12,779-12,814, which surrounds the February 20 high (12,795.90). As the above chart shows, if wave B is unfolding as a double zigzag (see EWP, p.42), this target is where wave c (circle) would equal wave a (circle) in the second zigzag, and where the entire second zigzag would equal the first zigzag. Another strong target potential is 12,996.10-13,028.80, which is where wave c (circle) would be 1.618 times wave a (circle) in the second zigzag, and the 1.236 and 1.272 (sq. root of 1.618) retracements of wave A down. The upper area holds the added attraction of including round-number resistance of 13,000.

EN

Okay sold!

Seriously, if true that these guys just turned bullish it has to be the biggest sell signal since they got bearish at the bottom in March.

I used to follow that service and you could literally make money fading it, even on a very short term basis.

stu mann

pure entropy...as always

I found the beginning of the discussion informative enough that I once again cracked Prechter's 1st book, got out my ruler, and checked Mr. Tulku's counts vs. Mr. Yelnik's original position. Both seem reasonable, although I tend to gravitate toward the later because:

"A B-wave top in '08? I strongly disagree. What is something "in the fogg" in DJIA and SPX, is very clear in DAX and CAC40 - we have double or even tripple zig zags there, with it's last, final stages. We should see the top in 2007, probably June/July." (Tulku)

the trouble is, my ruler and I clearly saw market direction in 2002-03. I cLEARLY saw then the Naz grinding lower and the Dow following. That's not how things played out.

but as Professor Succo points out on

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

"weak stocks are dragged up kicking and screaming by index arbs"

"I routinely am seeing massive bids advertised in the ETF as if the "buyer" wanted to buy them at the worst price possible. In other words, to drive the market up."

the point being, both

A) the growth of indexing &

B) the PPT

obscure EW counts on the American indexes. Tulku looks to Europe.

thinks Prechter is a j..

What a bunch of idiots .....

My 9 year old son knows more about markets than these bunch of a.holes.

Well they can celebrate an aniversary: beeing 20 years wrong - Wow -

The Bond Bear

Self proclaimed bond guru sees correlations where there are none.

Ken

Neely is flat the markets, sees a 1987 scenario developing

"The more the S&P pushes upward, the larger the decline we should see once wave c begins."

http://tinyurl.com/2c8ptw

cstradingman

The bond rally continues. The recent low in treasuries should hold. Otherwise we will have to re-evaluate our outlook. Bonds should rally steadily from here.

EN

McHugh has been sending out bullish counts of late too - for free. This guy is so bad that I have to laugh every time I read one of these things. Everybody is bullish now?

Ken: Thanks for posting that but I really can't say I can understand what Neely is talking about regarding "the higher the B wave goes the more C wave will be in price". If the B wave is more than 1.382 times wave A, then C is not even supposed to erase all of wave B, at least according to Neely's book.

Regardless of all these wave counts, I just don't see how this thing can go much higher without a retest of the yearly lows. You got the DOW up at the old high, the SPX 1 percent above it and the NDX can't even rally 2 points today. This thing is really toast for the whole year if it does not come back to the 200 day MA within the next month.

gary

I expect the Dow to begin a significant move down within the next two days for a nice swing trade. I believe there is an elevated chance that this down move could be brutal.
/gary

rdneu56

It looks like bonds and equities have been largely ignoring all the bearish wave counts from a few weeks ago. None of the expensive Fibonacci magicians (the ones that sell newsletters) got it right.
Tony Caldera on the other hand got it right! It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Tony Caldero

rdneu56

My name is Caldero...not Caldera. Please learn to spell my name asshole!!

Tony

rdneu56

My apologies to Tony for hitting a wrong key typing his name. I doubt however that the last post was from Tony. It is simply not his style. I think I know who it is. Quite obviously, the person has the personality of a sewer. There not many people here that fit that description. I can only think of one. Can you guess who?

Gordy

McHugh is calling for huge bull market in bonds.

cstradingman

Yeah this up move in treasuries looks like the real thing. Bond bull market continues!

remy

Tiny stock called FLIP could go higher, just announced RECORD profits

FTS Group, Inc. (OTC BB:FLIP) a Company operating in the wireless, technology and Internet space, recently announced record operating results for fiscal 2006. FTS generated the first full year of profits in its history. FTS Group Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Scott Gallagher, stated, "Our Companies have delivered record operating results for 2006.

THE TRADER GUY

BECAUSE EVERYONE IS SHORT AND THE PUT CALL RATIO IS THE HIGHEST IN 10 YEARS

STOCKS ARE GOING HIGHER

Eventhorizon

Trader Guy,

I have noticed that too - if you look at the 200dma of the put:call ratio ($CPC on stockcharts.com) it has steadily risen from 0.5 in 2000 to nearly 1 today.

I have wondered if this is due to the hedgefund strategy of selling out of the money puts inexorably driving the price of puts down and hence volume up.

If this is the case it would not imply bearishness, just increasing supply of a one-sided bet that one day will blow up and take some hedgies with it!

Do you have any further insight on the issue?

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