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« CDO = Compulsive Debt Obsession | Main | Coiled Spring has Sprung »

Monday, July 16, 2007


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head over to their doing an freeaccess week. YES! and its at a top not a bottom!


Fibonacciman has been wrong many times. I would quietly put him into broken-clock-man. I have had received his emails, and he tried to cover too many areas without a clear vision of his expectation.

Though I did not like Pretcher due to his integrity problem, at least he has more guts than the Fibo man to say clearly what he thinks will unfold.


There once was a huckster named Prechter
Cried a wolf would deflate each stock sector
Chicken Little was wrong
Bull trends rallied UP strong
Ate them bears like a Hanibal Lechter

Perry Lowe

Cheapest Stocks in Two Decades Signal Bull Market
Michael Tsang, Daniel Hauck and Nick Baker
Bloomberg, April 2 2007


Yep. That was probably the end of a pattern at today's high in the DOW. It was a perfect 34 hour rally in the DOW cash market. But it has to erase the entire 34 hour rally in less time than 34 hours to confirm a top - unlikely. I would guess that the opening gap DOWN tomorrow will be a fool's errand in terms of shorting for more than a few days - what with the strength in tech. My guess is that this market has ended the first leg up and out of a pattern that started last Thusday. 1600-1625 is possible if we can take out today's highs . . . That is the point at which a fibo .62 retracement back towards the march lows would take us back to the February highs. Watch for a bottom Thursday which is trading day 89 of the rally off the yearly lows. If, instead we hit a fresh high on Thursday, that is worth a mild short in my opinion. I am waiting for Euphoria around 1600 or a break of 1500 to bet the farm and the shack where I bring the farm girls.

Anybody long gold? I got long that sucker but she better take off this week or else I will take the money and run to the nearest farm shack.

Depression? Who cares if you got won a dem dare farm shacks . . .


Fibonacciman has to be one the most non-committal huckster out there. He is always right because he never takes a stand... it could go up tomorrow maybe down...You have to read his post 6 times to try to guess what the direction the market will take. But after the fact he points to one of his many "predictions" and find something positive and says he "nailed it right on the head" What a loser !!!


Where is the DOW-PREDATOR ? I enjoyed his comments... come on back we miss you !


Blow-off top into August. Technical divergences. The stock indices are running on adrenaline, fear of missing out, and hitting milestones because they're there.


Bond breakout today! Here it is. Bonds looking good again. Thats why I don't look at opinionated fundementals when trading. Especially when economic theory is just that 'thoery'. Bonds now looking strong. The bears have been shaken out. Next stop on yields 4% (minimum target)


cs: good call on bonds. It's not enough (yet) to convince me to be bullish though but to wait and watch action around that trendline. For stocks, I want another pop and another few weeks (Aug.) before going short.

Dow Predator


You have to do something. This place is boring as hell.
I warned you months ago that people like rdneu56 was destroying your blog.
They were only bashing the place with useless attacks and comments.

The Dow Predator is back. Lets see if I can contribute to make this a better place..

Dow Predator


DP, welcome back! Market is beginning to get interesting ...


Welcome back Dow Predator, what is your view...

Dow Predator

I think that as long as the Dow does noc closes below 13620, we are going higher into August. I have 2 possible dates for a top. August 9 and 31.

My main count says we are near wave 2 down of 5 at today's lows. As long as we do not close below 13,620 we are going higher.

Put/Call ratio closed at 1.41 and the MCO closed at -228. This is bullish.

Dow Predator

Dow Predator

The Dow Jones touched 13,680 and is bouncing. This is the 61.8% retracement from the E wave low of the Triangle. I think that as long as 13680 holds we are ready to see new all time highs.
Iam bullish now as long as 13,680 holds. Some of my Predator indicators are bullish shor term.

Dow Predator


Well, the rally in treasuries certainly surprised most people. With the recent flow of negative news I expect the rally to top very soon, (to scare the few converted bulls). We could have a minor pullback and then a big rally. The next stop we should look for after the pullback will be 4.60% on the 30 year yield. The yield will rise to around 5.10 - 5.15% first. The market will slowly increase the probability of rates cuts this year from here on out. A rate cut in '07 is a near certainty. Equities look a little scary not performing well with bonds rallying much more then expected, but there is certainly no comfirmation that stocks have topped for a least a major correction yet. We will have to watch closely. It's time to be neutral on equities.

Dow Predator

Anyone here that folled my advise, went long on the Dow today at 13,680. We are up 105 points.

Place stops at 13,700 (cash). We should be on our way to see all new time highs.

Wave 3 of 5 started today. Only a break of today{s lows will turn me bearish. The MCO closed at bullish -228. The market is ready to rally again.

Dow Predator


EWI's STU has a completed 5 up on the Dow at its recent high above 14k. But an alternate count keeps the possibility open that the fall over the past week is wave 4 and that a 5'th wave push to about 14300 is to follow. . The The alternate count stays in play as long as 13670 on the Dow is not overlapped. Todays low was exactly 4 points above that.


Whoops. Gap up in treasuries today even caught me by surprise. Resistence has now turned support. The 30 year is headed to 4.60%


Look what the recent tiny uptick in yields did to the housing market. Slowed it to a crawl. Does anybody actually think in this environment yields can rise?
Treasury bonds - LONG TERM BULLISH!

1929 Deja vu

Prechter is predicting a 1929 type crash right here.


Well, 1929 crash? I hope so, because he had been calling that since er ... 1990 I think.


CSTradingMan -- Good Call on the bonds! Looks like we had a fake out that cleanse all the bond bulls previously! The bonds are back into the long term down trend channel!


Thanks Shawn. Yeah the fed rates cuts coming will surprise everyone. I don't see whats so surprising though. the housing market is getting worse. Also, when Ben Bernanke was asked about the falling dollar, he said its not the feds responsibility!! He basically told the market he does not follow the dollar!! Meaning he will cut rates reguardless of the dollars value.
Plus, I mean come on, it's Ben Bernanke. No credibility as an inflation fighter what so ever.
Yes, a treasury bond Cyclical AND Secular bull market are in force now.
Good luck man and make some $$$$!!

da bear

is the bear back?

da bear

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