Obscurity Abounds

Nice bounce at the close.  Dumb money comes in the first half hour; smart money in the last.  Tonight's STU believes the smart money will look stupid by early next week as the rescue bounce is retraced and more.   Neely also stands by a coming big down move.  The Nasdaq has completed a wave 4 triangle and should spike down first.  But is this the little Big One?  The look of both the Dow and the S&P is that the BOUNCE off Jan22-23 is impulsive and the retrace meandering and slow - a correction.  Wave 1 up and wave 2 correction of a new bull?  The Nasdaq may be presaging a wave 4 triangle in the broader indexes. Neither the Dow nor S&P has *yet* dropped enough to form a triangle; perhaps the Naz drops in wave 5 and the others drop in leg-b of their triangles to catch up. 

Comments

[Dow Predator]

Yelnick:

¿¿233 points up in the last hour…and up for the last 2 weeks in a row????

Make no mistake!!
I have been warning you guys!!
The market is going up!!

For the record… I am willing to send Yelnick my daily February statements to prove him that I am up more than 1000%from my Feb 1 2008 original investment…

Yelnick…send me your email and I will send my statements (without personal information!)

If Yelnick certifies that this is not the truth… I will never post again on this board!!.,,,

Any bets?

Dow Predator.

[best trader]

transport close negative and is leader on dow jones.next week i think you must to change coach dow predator ;)

[george]

dow predator,

if you post on this blog in real time when you buy and
sell people will believe you.
example-i went short 10 june contracts of
xyz index at 60.50 today.
you don't have to reveal or explain why you are doing it.
you won't be teaching them dick diamonds techniques.
just proving to them that dick's approach works in real
time. i don't think dick would mind your doing that.

i have always enjoyed your posts on this blog.

george

[Sean]

Well, settle down boys!

You want real profit, go take a look http://www.slopeofhope.com.

Tim is thinking to create a new blog that feed his personal holdings and options REAL TIME so that you can copy it as your portfolio.

I have been watching him closely in the last 6 months. Made many good calls, and have the INTEGRITY to laugh at himself when making mistakes (not disappearing!).

[Mark Lytle]

I have plotted and displayed Friday's late rally on my Blog, and it looks like short covering. The crucial test will probably come Monday when it tries to build on Friday's run. $Trin is at near overbought levels, as is RSI on some time scales. It would be premature to look for a big bull run based on this rally, particularly because there was very little improvement in most breadth indicators, as a result of Friday's action. In fact, many if not most of these indicators are sporting considerable negative divergences...That should be cause for caution, particular during a backdrop of quickly decaying fundamentals...

[MHD]

Quickly decaying fundamentals is right on mark, Mark. Next week should provide some more clues to how fast those fundamentals are decaying. I just can't see a bull run if more evidence comes in that the economy continues to deteriorate. Our economy has so many problems created by debt that evenually this will be reflected in the markets. It's just a matter of time, and what kind of spark will ignite it.

[I.Sosceles]

"Wave 1 up and wave 2 correction of a new bull?"

Define "new."

[yelnick]

Iso, consider July to Jan22 (or Oct to Jan22) as a wave 4 with a wave 5 to follow, specifically 2003w4 and 2003w5. Under this count the 2000-2003 drop was 82W4. Or, think of as 2003wCw4 and now Cw5. SO 'new' is a continuation of the trend since 2003.

[President D Szvaselinovic]

Komrades, we have no place for purse fight in glorious revolution!

Forget purse, Vaszeline motion continue into 2008!

[wavechart.com]

Today's solid breakout above trendchannel resistance confirms the rally to new highs! See updated charts posted at http://www.wavechart.com/free_elliott_wave_stock_market_forecast.htm.

[MHD]

Well so far the "smart money" is looking pretty smart and the STU and Neely looks to have called the market the wrong way once again. I thought they had a better than 50% of being correct this time, but once again the market rallies on bailout news.
If the markets rally to new highs with a black cross and a Dow Theory sell signal, there must be an awesome amount of money flowing into the markets...Yves style I guess.