Opportunity Rebounds!

Nice rise since the last 1/2 hour Friday.  Puts stress on both the STU's and Neely's counts.  Now the STU has to wait for a 78% retrace to hold their wave 2 count.  I cannot remember how many times we have been at this count from the STU since 2002, and watched the "nested wave 1-2 with 78% retrace" simply fail.  Means to me that  a triangle 4th wave is more likely with a truncated 5th to complete the down move.  The triangle is clear in the Naz, and now is becoming clearer in S&P and Dow.  For the simplified Zoran view, with a triple bottom, this may end up with a truncated 5th to about the Jan22 level, then a 1 up and 2 down where the 2 comes near the Jan22 level as well.  As to the bullish view, maybe; but the impulse up off Jan23 seems to have stalled. 

Comments

[Dow Predator]

11:38 NY time.

You guys know I have been bullish.
If the rally is going to fail, it should fail now. Place all stops at the low of the day. 1363.75 on the SPX mini. If we continue higher from here, the bears will be eliminated!!

A reverse here means the bear is back. You guys have been warned!

Dow Predator

[Mario]

Hi Dow Predator ... to you have a website where you post your opinions
Mario

[Sean]

Check this one out ... I am eyeing short entry when VIX close gap at 20.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/citigroup-vies-raise-question-of.html

CITI bank is very likely going bankcrupt soon.

Yelnick, forget about your tech boom. Trust me, if there is one boom this year like FSLR, its going to be CREE. Many experienced electrical engineers are on board this CREE ship for a while now. Catch the last train before it's leaving the station.

[Sean]

Forget to mention, your GOOG leader is dead on arrival. Not a good sign of tech super boom.

[yelnick]

The Surge will show up in a broader set of tech stocks than the leaders. Or, in Yves view, will start in financials. Financials rebounding is a sign of a bottom in the credit crunch. It is possible we started a final upleg on Jan 23, but the Surge is not yet starting. As to GOOG, one hell of a swoon. Seems to be worries that GOOG suffers in a recession, worries that I expect will be confounded by a flight of ad spending to interactive ads over tgraditional if a recession happens (better ROI). So let GOOG fade a bit - it becomes a screaming buy in the Surge.

[LoneStarHog]

"Financials rebounding is a sign of a bottom in the credit crunch." -- Yelnick

You have got to be kidding me...We are nowhere near a bottom...The entire credit/debt structure is in a nuclear-type meltdown being supported by spin, spin, spin...Look what gold/silver is screaming...Bottom?.....

Buy gold/silver and get outta anything/everything U.S. Peso denominated.....

LoneStarHog

[yelnick]

the financial surge is Yves view, not mine

[Wave Rust]

Took proftis today on the longs. Tomorrow looks like 5 of 1 of 1 (from low on 22nd) ;then the 2 of 1 for a day or more. last good chance to get long on the 2 down

bigs are getting long too

Y- nuttin does nuttin without the financials

[cribrange]

The long term dynamics currently being displayed on the American markets suggest that we have entered a major bear market over the next couple of years. The filth currently being spewed out in the USA has arrived in Europe and the UK has yet to really feel the brunt of this bear market. Real Estate over here has been more bid up than the USA and affordability in the UK is at historic lows. The key here is not to look at the same charts everyone uses. What is vital is take into account the real moves, not the nominal moves. The conclusion is this : the "bull" market from 2002 to 2007 was fake. That was not an impulsive move. It is corrective. The American charts, when analysed in real terms reveal this. From what I can see, this drop has been the first part of a massive wave C. Either we hit a low i.e. a 5 of a 1, or we have another drop, where the recent bounce has been a 4. Something to look out for is the Euroyen chart which has reached a pivot point and has possibly traced out a 3 wave corrective move from the recent lows. Next couple of days will be critical for the short term structure. Long term, a move back down to the lows of October 2002 is in the works.

[VirginiaJim]

About the EWI comment "The smart money will not look so smart when the late day rally is retraced and then some. (parphrased)"
This is the type of bravado that is repulsive to any person who appreciates humility as a virtue. And then combine it with EWI's all too frequent bad calls and you have a near Pavolovian response to ever mentioning EWI or Robert Prechter in public forum. Undoubtedly, Robert Prechter has done more to advance the thinking of RN Elliott and other methodologies (Fibonacci, Benner, et al) than any other scholar/analyst. EWP is the bilbe. But I am getting tired of trying to defend EWI, particularly when they rub the noses of anyone that might disagree with them.
And for my 2 cents, they are triangles but they aren't 4th wave triangles. They're b wave triangles that will result in a c wave thrust that will wipe out every bear that relied upon the all superior opinion of EWI. Of course, that's opinion submitted in mock humilty of EWI not to be confused with EWI's edict on high.
At this point, I'd love to see EWI have to rationalize their count with 1-2, 1-2. This has been a common theme over the last 6 years I've followed them.
Jim

[Dow Predator]

The Dow is trading at 12745 right now. I am getting rid of all my longs here.
The nasdaq is lagging big time. The market is now overbought short term.
The market could be topping again. Lets wait for a pullback to see how it develops, but I do not like the long side here. The market has the possibility of crashing again from here... Lets wait for a pullback to see how it develops!

Dow Predator

[MHD]

The markets seem to love piss poor economic numbers so why aren't the futures up 20 points on the S&P this morning instead of down 10? Helicopter Ben needs to open his mouth again so the markets can get excited once again!

[john walker]

Yelnick,

Some months ago (if I remember correctly), your view of The Surge was that it would be fueled by a rally in the US$ (capital returning home, or capital flight). That seemed plausible to me, but the FX market is not "cooperating".

Questions: (a) Does the euro's rally this month change your outlook for The Surge ? (b) What is your current US$ outlook?

[yelnick]

John Walker, great question. If the US Peso continues to drop, the Dow will go up for a while - it is a hedge for overseas investors. But extended Dollar weakness would be one of the causes of the Little Big One down. Might become the Big Big One! Similar to 1974. Bush and Bernanke are playing with fire to keep the economy going (rebates, low interest) through the coming election, and let the Dollar fester. To me the Surge was not a currency-based response to Dollar weakness but driven by the Global Scramble for Yield, a search for real (not nominal) yield in speculative new issues. As long as we see Dollar weakness, we won't see a Surge as other areas will show yield (oil, commodities, gold).

The US Peso is poised to drop, and there are few conceivable support levels below, since it has NEVER been this weak - certainly not since 1971 when we went off gold, nor since 1973 when we went on an oil standard. Greenspan is now spouting off to the oil-bearing states to go off a Dollar lock to their currencies to stop importing a potentially horrific inflation from Dollar weakness. That would breach the 1973 deal, and send the US Peso into free fall. Greenspan who created this credit bubble now wants to put a stake in its heart! Bernanke must be fuming.

My prediction: Dollar weakness will end shortly, Euro will come rapidly off $1.51 or where-ever it ends up, and oil will drop hard. Why? Next rate cut is inevitable, already priced in; and now Bernanke can begin using other tools to strengthen the Dollar. Greenspan's remarks are a method of putting pressure on Bernanke to change course (ie scare him into action). Volcker tried that as well about a year ago.

[LoneStarHog]

The Euro is heading for 1.65 and there is nothing that the ECB can do about it, except some short-term moves...

Oil is heading for $125-$150 this year and there is nothing that anyone can do about it, except some short-term moves...

Silver is heading for $25-$30 and gold to $1200+ this year with a major battle around $1050...

The U.S. Peso is heading into the abyss...

As stated so many times since 2000: Buy gold/silver and the PM equities and get outta anything/everything U.S. Peso denominated...

If there is ANY major catastrophe, gold/silver/oil could head much, much higher and the U.S. Peso into the abyss much faster...

LoneStarHog

[Dow Predator]

Since my last post the market has given us 200 dow jones points to the downside. My exit point at 12745 was less than 20 dow jones points from the top!.

If you are a predator you rode the downside trip today!..as I did!!! I now think we are making a series of 1,2 1,2 to the downside and we could be ending the second wave 2 down. As long as 12400 holds I am willing to try the bull side again tomorrow. If I am correct, March will begin with a nice rally!!

Dow Predator

[Dow Predator]

If LoneStarHog is forecasting the Euro to reach 1.65, the crude oil to reach 125, the gold to reach 1200 and the Silver to reach 30.... I think is time to sell all these markets.

With 98% bulls on the Euro as of thursday close, I really do not think the Euro is going up without a nice correction to the downside. Crude is at 93% bulls, gold and Silver are above 95%.... All these markets are now ready for a nice correction to the downside.

LoneStarHog...please let us know what do you think about the Dow Jones.

Dow Predator
Dow Predator

[joe]

thursdaysdecline was to be expected
there is a massive fibonacii turn date next week
if this turns out to be a low as i expect
then the bearish will veiw will have a huge dent put in it

[LoneStarHog]

I have absolutely no idea about the Market Indexes (e.g. DOW) and I could not care less.

All that I do know is that the Market Indexes are at the same levels as October 2002 when valued in REAL (Constant Dollar) terms and even worse when valued in gold/silver. But since all that anyone cares about is the ILLUSION of NOMINAL gains, then a whole new generation of USEFUL IDIOTS is available for U.S. Gubermint use.

My investment style is simple: Since 2000 I have been buying gold/silver (silver since 2003) and the PM equities. I have a small trading position, just for fun. I add on any major dips.

My investment style is STRESS FREE and I sleep very well at night. It also means that I don't give a damn about ILLUSIONS.

Buy gold/silver and the PM equities, especially the really good Juniors and sell anything/everything U.S. Peso denominated.

LoneStarHog

Note: The S&P Futures trading during the final thirty minutes of market hours should give any fool a hint of who is supporting these markets. (i.e. PPT: President's Working Group on Financial Markets, Counter Risk Party Management Group, Exchange Stabilization Fund, etc.). That "Strong Dollar" IDIOT Paulson admitted during a CNBS interview in August 2007 that HE is supporting the markets through the President's Working Group)

[Chas]

PMs/commodities are just another bubble that will need to burst.

[VirginiaJim]

EWI apparently taunted the 'smart money' last Friday with their imminent crash scenario and a 4th wave triangle that would take back last Friday's afternoon rally "early next week". They apparently wrote that without humility. They are apparently wrong again unless someone can explain the Wednesday high above that triangle. How can that be a 1-2 with 2 higher than the starting point of 1? Sure, futures today (Friday 2/29) suggest a big wave down that might mitigate harm to their readership, but it hardly excuses the tragic air of superitority at EWI. Please do not misunderstand the resentment expressed here as denial of the great contributions of Robert Prechter and, to a much lesser extent, his EWI. But EWI's fixation on their preminent view of the market is near delusional and has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Perhaps they should adopt an air of objectivity in lieu of their promotional bravado. JMHO.

[cribrange]

Lonestarhog... I am with you regarding the fact that in reality, real and not nominal charts provide you with a better clue of what is going on. I also agree that punting the market for a couple 100 points here and there is in essence a mugs game. If some people here manage to do it, then great for them. Determining the real long term moves however is where the real money is.

I disagree however with one thing that you said. You say that in real terms, the Market indexes are at the October 2002 levels. This is not yet the case. This is actually good news as this provides much more space to the downside. There will be no surge. The only positive move you could get is a major contra trend rally in wave 2 or a B, but certainly not worth playing. For a high octane move, buy Natural Gas. There is 50% in it this year. Far better than racking your brains out for small increments in the market.

Dow Predator, stating that 98% are bull on the Euro is fabulous. Possibly a short term correction is due. But so what? What is your long term view? You need high levels of bullishness to send a market higher in the long term. Gold has gone through the roof with high levels of optimism. Playing a short term correction based on this is ridiculous. However, if you had a long term view, you would instead have said buy on a possible correction to play an ensuing move up towards next major target of X and make far more money in the process.

Come on Dow Predator, who goes everyone's throat on this blog. What is your long term view on the S&P500?

[LoneStarHog]

"PMs/commodities are just another bubble that will need to burst." -- Uh! First you need to be in a bubble...THEN the bubble can burst.

Examples:

1) Oil -- The way to measure it is in DAYS SUPPLY and not that weekly Wednesday crap. Days supply of oil is at historic lows.

2) Copper -- Historic lows and demand far exceeds supply

3) Gold -- Demand far exceeds supply and supply is in DECLINE

4) Silver -- Stockpiles are at historic lows

5) Wheat, Sugar, Cotton, etc -- Stockpiles are at multi-decade and historic lows

Investors -- These items are not even close to being on the radar screens (investment portfolios) of Joe and Josephine Clueless. Most of the CLUELESS are concerned with the Market Indexes, while the confirmed commodities bull market continues to run, especially gold/silver.

I could go on-and-on with examples. Bubble? Please!

LoneStarHog

Note: Probably the most CLUELESS statement that I have heard recently was the one about how EVERYONE was on the SHORT SIDE of the U.S. Peso. Talk about CLUELESS! Yes there were/are many TRADERS on the SHORT SIDE, but when you have most of the WORLD holding U.S. Pesos, THAT is the LONG position and it FAR EXCEEDS a bunch of damn traders with their stupid charts/shorts. Simply put, the world is sooooooooooooo LONG in U.S. Pesos that NO amount of dumbass traders can offset it with some so-called SHORTS.

[Chas]

With all due respect, gold isn't on the radar? Do you read popular magazines or listen to the radio?

[AnthonyCollins]

Thanks for the comments DP. I took my profits on the shorting of the S&P undertaken at 1388 on Wednesday this morning.
It does look like your exit to the downside awaiting a 1,2 up may have been a little premature.

[LoneStarHog]

"With all due respect, gold isn't on the radar? Do you read popular magazines or listen to the radio?"

Of course it is DISCUSSED and WRITTEN about. However, it would be a stretch to say that gold/silver investors have even reached the high single digits, percentage wise.

When gold/silver and other commodities become THE DISCUSSION around the watercooler, supper table, parties and your INFORMED brother-in-law offers you advice to get into a commodity investment, THAT will mean the bubble MIGHT be getting ready to burst.

Also, gold/silver WILL NOT collapse this time, like back in 1980. If you study the global forex market and long-term economic strageties, you will understand.

Don't get confused by doing the same thing that that IDIOT Prechter does. He attends a GOLD SHOW and then writes a missive about how EVERYONE is bullish to the extreme. This would be like attending an AA Meeting and drawing the conclusion that EVERYONE is an alcoholic.

LoneStarHog

[He]

I think a few months down the line people will start to wonder who got them in the mess. Who were these idiots creating bubbles one after the other - who are the idiots who filled the pockets selling crap in finance to everybody. Who were the worms at the Fed / Worldbank etc only protection their friends in finance and politics (CorpGovt and CONgress):

And eventually people will realise that 90 % of these responsible and profiting sofar are J E W S.

[MHD]

Blame your stupidity on anyone but yourself. It's the American way.