Wait and C

Both Neely and the STU say the count is ambiguous, so wait and see.  No Little Big One or Big Little One for a bit.  If you are Tony-bearish, this counter-trend wave 2 up is extending but the C wave down awaits.  If your are Yves-bullish, the confidence is rising that Jan23 was a bottom and we have just ended a wave 2 down - market should now pop up.  If you are Zoran-focused, we are in an extended corrective period that will end without a major drop.  Let's concede a third high happened in Dec (first two in Jul and Oct) and the trend has changed down; but we seem to be building towards a triple bottom which will signal a trend change back up.  The STU also sees this possibility: they have a "tertiary" count of a developing triangle since Jan23.  Since a triangle is rare if ever seen in a wave 2, it would be a wave 4 triangle and Jan23 would be the end of a wave 3 rather than a wave 5.  Triangles break in five waves, often labeled abcde.  The pattern the STU outlined last Friday would have the b-leg of the triangle come down near the Jan23 low, a c-leg up, then a d-leg which ends higher than the b-leg, a final e-leg up, and then a wave 5 thrust down.  If that thrust ends near the Jan23 level, as it may given an upward sloping triangle, we would have a triple bottom and a Zoran simplified Elliott trend change.  Timing?  The Feb19 turn window is a bust, so next one is Mar4-6, then around Mar21.  Given a triangle, the triple bottom may continue as far out as May. 

Comments

[Dow Predator]

If you are a Predator...you do not care where the market is going the next week. You just care where is going the next 8 trading hours!

If you are a Predator...you make money on both...bull and bear markets!

If you are a Predator...you change your mind along with the market!

If you are a Predator you trade what you see not what you believe!

If you are Predator oriented....you just make money and that is what counts!

Dow Predator

[LoneStarHog]

If you are LoneStarHog...you just keep buying gold/silver and PM shares, as per the plan since 2000, and sit tight with an eight year annual return of well into the TRIPLE DIGITS!

Buy gold/silver and get outta anything/everything U.S. Peso denominated.

LoneStarHog

[I. Sosceles]

If you understand markets you realize:

once the public starts gettin' interested in gold the move is doomed.

jbjackson said years ago we would go sideways longer than anyone could imagine and he was right

the dollar is NOT going to collapse, the world is NOT going to end, inflation and environmental degradation in China, with dire long-term consequences, is being downplayed by those living in Hong Kong.

you are not understanding the role of long-term plateaus in e-wave theory.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[LoneStarHog]

Buy gold/silver and get outta anything/everything U.S. Peso denominated.

LoneStarHog

[Dow Predator]

LoneStarHog,

triple digits per year?... not enough!

Real predators are able to make more than 1000% in 1 month. (not all the months, but most of them). That is my case!

Dow Predator

[Mark Lytle]

The wedge I reported on yesterday appears now to have been real (it failed as expected, after an overthrow), if we now fall below 1756.64 on volume($NDX), then at least we will probably test (and likely exceed) the 1/23/08 low. I am unresolved in my mind whether the 3/3/08 cycle low will hold or not..I can see arguements both ways...but if it does bounce on or around that date, then many of the indexes will have formed sort of a triple bottom (kind of Zoran-ish?)..however, we should also be prepared for the possibility of a very feeble bounce on that date...there is terrible damage out there both fundamentally and technically. This will be a much steeper decline overall then the 2000-2002 Bear market,again for both technical and fundamental reasons, so bounces may be much weaker than in that decline...

[mr.silent]

Dow Predator, 1000% ay?
You should be retired by now and not give a crap about posting here. Your annoying and childish.
Big Ego, Small ...well you know...
It's a pity mother nature forgot about you in that department.

[Eventhorizon]

Let's see now. 1000% per month, "not all but most". Hmmm. 1000% per month every other month? Seems like a conservative interpretation.

Net worth of US, say $50tr?

Starting with $50, DP owns the entire asset base of the US in approximately 2 years (50 x 10^24)!

Would be nice. LOL.

[Dow Predator]

I can prove what I say, with statements.

Dow Predator

[Chas]

1000% a month? And I though that Hillary was a savy investor!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/whitewater/stories/wwtr940527.htm

[Yogi]

Eventhorizon, if you’re still interested in tracking the Baltic Dry Index you can find the daily data here:

http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

And this site has charts, but there’s usually a one (or more) day delay before they’re updated:

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

[Eventhorizon]

Yogi,

Thanks for the links - that second one is exactly what I was looking for.

[AnthonyCollins]

I've never posted here before, but have been reading this blog avidly for years.
May I ask people to leave off Dow Predator and to cut out the childish comments because he's a great poster, he has made some great calls and his posts can be most entertaining too.
Yelnick> Please keep up the good work. I have a much clearer view of the market through this blog, Tony Caldero's and the free stuff on Safehaven.com than I ever did when I signed up to Prechter and bought his books from end 2001 to 2004.

[MHD]

Markets still going back and forth with neither the bull or bear taking solid control. Economic news next week should make or break the bull/bear.

[LoneStarHog]

1000% Per Month!?! BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....!!!!!

That would make you the absolute greatest trader in the history of all markets by a factor of damn near infinity.

Go back to the Yahoo! boards with all the rest of your ilk where you can post your HUGH (Yahoo! for HUGE) phony trades/gains.

1000% Per Mohth! BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....!!!!!

Oh Man!...I can hardly get up off the floor.....

LoneStarHog

Note: Buy gold/silver and the PM equities, especially the Juniors, and just sit back and relax.....

[cstradingman]

1000% per month is not enough. I make 1618.1618% * 1.618 percent per month :)
You guys are clowns.

Anyway, I see the equity markets heading south bigtime in the next 2 weeks. Anybody else see what I'm seeing?
1.) bullish sentiment rising BEFORE a successfull restest of the lows. Thats pretty bearish.
2.) Tresusry yields rise, market is weak. Thats pretty bearish.
3.) Tresusry yields fall, market is weak. Thats pretty bearish.

I think we head south hard into another suprise 50bp rate cut from the Fed to try and halt the decline. We are geting very close to the steep selloff.

[I. Sosceles]

The next move is UP, unfortunately.

[Sean]

CS, the board need more cooling heads like you.

I wonder what tools and insights do you use for equity market calls? You have pretty good equity market calls too.

The problem with Dow Predator was that he make probably 50% good call, if my memory tracking serve me right. There was a time he was completely off a few times and he took off like months without coming back.

At least CS has been right all along the bonds, and pretty good in the general IT trend of equity markets.

[yelnick]

AnthonyCollins, thanks for the kind words. I would urge everyone to watch credit spreads, which continue to widen. The spreads indicate the credit crunch ebbing or flowing. If they continue to widen, the little Big One will emerge. If they narrow, the Surge is on. In the middle, we muddle on.

[deacon]

we're in a 'puetz panic' window into next week, and very few are talking about it...since it was a 'blood moon full lunar eclipse' the turn date was actually 2/21(not 2/19), eclipse happening late evening 2/20 in new york, or when asia was open 2/21...precious metals,crude oil, grains, most commodities basically made their yearly high on the 2/21 turn date, and it remains to be seen how far the turn may or may not run

[best trader]

russell 2000 and dow transportation closed negative :)

[Roger]

Great calls, everybody. I've made lots of money following your finely tuned models. Good work. I guess there is something to this baltic dry/elliott/puetz/fibonacci stuff. One more week like the last one and I'll be worth forty million dollars.

So what's in store for next week? Full moon? Turn date? Dow theory signal? Gold/silver sentiment Zoran-focused Yves-bullish low volume C wave?

I'm gonna make-a-me some MONEY!

[Suzy]

In total support of cstradingmans view, there is a nice triangle seting up in Eurodollars - suggests breakout to the upside which would be negative for equities. But given it is a triangle, once the move up completes, it is down down down for Eurodollars and up up up for the equity market. Somewhere in the third week of March looks good for a low. This should also bottom the 4-year cycle.

A marginal break of the January low is the best that can be expected for the bears as there hasbn't been enough time since the January low for distri butions, particularly given the size and speed of the move down - when we get the low, the move up off that marginal break should be fast. Get ready for the surge!!!!

[Suzy]

In total support of cstradingmans view, there is a nice triangle seting up in Eurodollars - suggests breakout to the upside which would be negative for equities. But given it is a triangle, once the move up completes, it is down down down for Eurodollars and up up up for the equity market. Somewhere in the third week of March looks good for a low. This should also bottom the 4-year cycle.

A marginal break of the January low is the best that can be expected for the bears as there hasbn't been enough time since the January low for distri butions, particularly given the size and speed of the move down - when we get the low, the move up off that marginal break should be fast. Get ready for the surge!!!!