Today's weakness sets up a clear test on Monday: stocks either must rally or we sink fast. Only slop is perhaps a drop at the open followed by a strong rally Monday. If we do not see that rally, watch the subsequent air pocket down in the market! Neely is already there - two days ago he said he expected a sharp decline to begin at any moment, and he is holding firm with that. The STU is almost there, but Hochberg wants to watch for a rally or not on Monday in the opening hours. He counts us in a double ABC wave 2 counter-trend rally, with today's close at the level the second B wave would normally stop at (78% retrace of move off Mar31 bottom). Zoran would see today as a bifurcation thrust out of the recent plateau: a thrust off Mar31, then the plateau; and we have now thrust below it. In his thinking, this would mean a change of trend down, likely as a continuation of the thrust, but possibly a new plateau around the Mar31 bottom level.
The Dollar/Euro couple is finishing their dance. Triangle is coming to a head, and should end with a thrust up in the Euro (above $1.59, and probably $1.60) and a thrust down in the Dollar (below 70.69, and probably below 70). Next big news should be *finally* a serious attempt by the US Govt to support the Peso.
I had timing involving 124 and 163-day patterns (trading days) that pointed to Thurs. 4/10, + or - 1 day. So today MAY still be the turn. Another relationship is that today is 55 trading days from the January low.
Posted by: Upstart | Friday, April 11, 2008 at 05:12 PM
Steven Hochberg on FSN
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
Posted by: TObject | Saturday, April 12, 2008 at 12:47 AM
so i guesss we are going to rally hard on monday
Posted by: MARIO | Saturday, April 12, 2008 at 10:59 AM
i am quessing to rally hard downside with financial results this week. hehe.... :)
Posted by: besttrader | Saturday, April 12, 2008 at 03:13 PM
INTC IBM GOOG MER JPM C WM earnings week!
lotta key earnings for an op-ex week, JNJ WFC NOK EBAY CSX BHP CAT as well...again weird wollie week played out on form and we are set to buy monday's low, perhaps from the 4/1 gap fill zones... INDU 15-3 green last 18 april op/ex weeks, with SPX 13-5 green...a cheap option for scam-ex week is QQQDS, in this market it has been better to book your profits when you get them, and wednesday open could be bad if INTC pulls a GE, or nice if it doesn't ...window dress the market for the pope visit another factor, and yes i read quite a few cycle guys calling for a 4/11 turn
Posted by: deacon | Monday, April 14, 2008 at 05:50 AM
Neely sucks moron
Posted by: 777 | Monday, April 14, 2008 at 09:20 PM
minyans try elliot:
(http://www.minyanville.com/articles/spx-fibonacci-Elliot-wave-retracement/index/a/16731)
ooops, now i'm reading cycle guys saying 4/16 is the turn date... bounces off QQQQ 50MA and SPX 50% at 1322thus far
(sung to joe walsh, 'life's been good to me thus farrrrrrrr')
Posted by: deacon | Tuesday, April 15, 2008 at 10:43 AM
i wanna be like ike, yeah!
neely's 200 yr forecast, find 'ike' at this link:
(http://www.neowave.com/info-past-interview.asp)
Posted by: deacon | Tuesday, April 15, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Neely does a good job, I have no problem with him. I do believe he's a little early, though.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Tuesday, April 15, 2008 at 12:35 PM
Follow-up.
It's easy to get over anxious when your in the business of predicting. But patience is mandatory.
Posted by: Mamma Boom Boom | Tuesday, April 15, 2008 at 02:02 PM
At least in the last two years, maybe more, the market pulled back until about where tax time was over. Last year the market pulled back to about 12500, then went on a 3-month 1500-point run to the July high of just over 14000. Now we're just under 12400.
Posted by: Upstart | Wednesday, April 16, 2008 at 05:30 AM
Elliott just identified 13 patterns, however there are so many more to be counted.
Both Gentlemen will be wrong ............
the market is one big fractal
Hank
Posted by: Hank Wernicki | Wednesday, April 16, 2008 at 10:50 AM