One thing we know about W is that he is trying to correct the sins of his father. First, invade Iraq and finish the job. Second, be 'compassionate' to get past being born with a silver spoon in your mouth. Now, make absolutely positively sure there isn't a recession going into the election year. So, the wasteful tax rebate. And, pressure on the Fed to keep rates low to keep the Dollar low so earnings from exports keep the economy slightly above recession. Hence I think we are past the low for the year, and this market will climb a wall of worry into 2009. In general the market is up during election years as Presidents do what W is doing to pump the economy; sadly, W's dad showed great financial discipline by not doing this, and lost. So his principled stand was lost to political calculation.
When will The Surge surge? The first obstacle is the popping of the Commodities Bubble, which may be happening as the Dollar is solidifying. The second obstacle is the uncertainty over the Demo candidate. Normally the election year surge starts by May, as the candidates are known by then; and often the winner is known. This year we may see a continued trading range with a slight upwards tilt until the Demo convention in August, unless the two Demo's self-destruct before then, and McCain is presumed the likely winner.
Where was similar rally during 2002 (2000-2003 Bear Market)
Transports almost reached previous High
http://paintfantasy.com/images/tran2002.jpg
so if we gonna drop - we have to do it here and now
Posted by: TObject | Thursday, May 01, 2008 at 07:26 PM
I WARNED YOU GUYS SINCE February 12......
I POSTED THIS:
This is simple guys.
As long as Monday low holds. The market is Bullish.
As long as that low holds... we are going to all new time highs and the final top will be in 2009. Jan 22 was the end of a 4th wave correction (or B wave).
Lets go day by day. But as long as the word "recession" is in everybody´s mouth. I am bullish!.. Even kids are now talking about the upcoming "recession".
Dow Predator.
Posted by: Dow Predator | Tuesday, February 12, 2008 at 07:35 AM
Posted by: DOW PREDATOR | Thursday, May 01, 2008 at 09:07 PM
Walking it backwards - assuming that the lows for the year are in and that the White House will work to keep it that way, and assuming that "The Surge" goes into 2009 - it's logical then that McCain gets elected. One of today's headlines shouts that Obama plans a $15 billion tax increase on oil companies, and it's certainly hard to imagine that Obama and/or Hillary will push hard to keep the Bush tax cuts. I just don't see the Democrats coming up with a candidate that will please the Street and bring on "the Surge."
I'd like to know whether the decline that started last year would qualify as a "basic decline" under the George Lindsay Count theories - because that STU clown and other professional Elioticians haven't been much help during the last 1200 or so DJIA points. I'm pretty sure that all or almost all Gann charts are pointing up at this time.
Posted by: coricidan | Friday, May 02, 2008 at 01:11 AM
birth/death model adds +267,000 jobs, the non-farm payroll number is much much worse than the headlines...SPX hits the 1425 target based on futures before 9am et...arch crawford had said in his march newsletter 'must be short SPX for the weekend of may 2nd'
Posted by: deacon | Friday, May 02, 2008 at 05:58 AM
Inflection point in GS.
We are at the "Do or Die" stage.
GS is the MARKET.
Posted by: I. Sosceles | Friday, May 02, 2008 at 09:26 AM
today we are going up and testing the 200 day moving average on the
dow industrials. the volume for the past several weeks
leading up to this test of the
200 day average has been weak. typical of a countertrend
rally. some occillators are showing negative
divergences and overbought readings.
i read arch crawford's newsletter on traders-talk.com
i also watched his recent interview on yorbatv.com
he did recommend shorting today may 2.
george
Posted by: george | Friday, May 02, 2008 at 11:06 AM