Prechter Warms to the Surge

Not by name of course, but his just-published EWT lays out the bigger picture, and sees the odds of a final 18 month +/- surge in stocks as rising.  (My prediction of The Surge is posted here, with some updates based on cycles and market sentiment here and here.)  Prechter is a very good analyst, and in this EWT he updates the wave count and lays out three scenarios.  I expect the STU to continue to sing the Big One Down song, especially after this past week, but Prechter lays out fairly good arguments based on waves, cycles, decennial patterns and Presidential election years as to why we may go to new highs into 2010, and have a double dip into 2012 and 2014, before this whole move from 200 is over.  I like it when Prechter returns to wave counts instead of car styles or justification of socioeconomics.  I would recommend you read this EWT. 

Comments

[dlu]

yelnick, so will he label this surge as wave5 from 2003 or wave b.

[george]

to cstradingman,
i have noticed that TLT ishares 20 year plus treasuries
etf has been in a contracting triangle for about the past month
on the daily chart. this is also occuring right on the 200 day
moving average. it appears the down move in the price of
long term treasuries is not over.
what are your thoughts?

george

[george]

yelnick,
are EWI predicting that obama or mccain will be the
next president?
george

[Percy]

Just the insight we've all been expecting from EWT.
The market will go up or down sometime in the future. EWT is right no matter what happens; and they still have more subcriptions to sell. Precther has been bearish since 87. He's been right and wrong; just as the market has gone up and down since then.

[JP]

"Prechter is a very good analyst:


Since when?

-Prechters view is markets peaked in wave 5 in year 2000.
-At end of 2006 Mr Prchter predicted on a video forecast on his site for subscribers that oil has topped and it will go down from $75 top, just to come 2007 and prove him wrong by $25
-Never called the bottom in 2002, and stated the
high of year 2000 would not be surpassed.
-In the summer he was calling for a top in gold and silver....Gold surged more then 50%


Useless!

[Hank Wernicki]

The Crux of Precther's ever changing forecasts is the fact that the fractals which make up the waves are totally ignored in his analysis.

Hence the reason for the constant relabeling of the waves.

This is true in every market that EWI covers in their letters.

The times they are correct is when they find a similar fractal for a turn PERIOD.

One cannot forecast any market. The best one can do is identify the turns as they occur.

AND this is exactly what EWI has been doing for 27 years.

How does EWI manage to still stay in business is beyond me ......... Neely is another folly

Perhaps the investing public is to blame for their success over the years as a publisher.

Elliott analysis is still valuable but it needs to be "Updated" as a forecasting tool.

The world has changed quite a bit from the 1930's ...

[yelnick]

George, he had been predicting Hillary, bnased on 2008 being a 1932 type of year. Seems unlikely, although Hillary still has a small chance to squeak in if the DNC lets Mich and FLA seat delegations, perhaps with half their votes, which should deny Obama victory on the first ballot, and then the back room deal making can begin. Even the Goracle may emerge as the consensus candidate. Will be fun TV. I suspect he now sees Hillary as trying to submarine Obama to let McCain win, a one-term candidate due to his age. Prechter has commented that the next Prez will be seen as the next Herbert Hoover due to the Big One happening before 2012. Then Hillary walks in as the tough demagogue the electorate craves at a C wave bottom.

[yelnick]

dlu, let me post this answer as a major post due to the complexity.

[usdollar]

Prechter if reading his books has many valid points, I would say he is absolutely right except for the time line, and the final patterns. I believe on my own limited research, that the important thing to keep an eye on is the dollar. The dollar have an spoky inverse relationship to almost all market index's. The dollar is finishing up an ending diagonal pattern wave 5 from the 1930s. Large wave 4 ended 1985, and to me it looks like wave 3 of the ending diagonal is going to end very close to 68.3 on the index, maybe in the beginning of june to finish down a 61.8 % of wave 1 of the ending diagonal which started in 1985. (I'd like to show it on a graf). Going over to DJIA, here is where Prechter goes wrong, The wave up from 777 1982, is an abc, wave 1 of an ending diagonal, with 1987 crash wave a of wave X, and the 00' top being wave 1, wave 2 is made 2002, and from there we have a perfect .618 relationship with wave 1 to make a wave 3 top north of 14000. Wave 4 is underway, vawe b might have finished, or it might finish in the beginning of June 08'. This looks like an elongated flat, so wave C will most definitely take us down to 9700-9800 area. This would be wave 4 of the monsteous ending diagonal. At the end of this year, the us dollar would have run up to about 90-100 on the index. Wave 5 is any bodies guess how far it will reach for the dollar and the DJIA's inverse relationship.
Time lines, A top in the DJIA would happen in the end of 2009 beginning of 2010, see fib charts/cycles, For the deflationary depression/K-cycle low, we would have to wait until 2021, start of crash, Tsunami/Grand super cycle wave C in 2018. other lows would most definitely be 2011, and 2014.

[da bear]

in the war of The Fed vs. Prechter (aka, the War on Waves) Prechter is losing.

Prechter is right, i believe, in that Her Hillariousness will win in a 1932-style election (aka Hillarity Ensues!). however that will be the 2012 race.

the current race is 1928.

McCain is Hoover. McHoover with McMansions instead of Hoovervilles.

here is a you tube clip of Hoover asking voters for their, uh, votes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKwkT4Mh87M&feature=related

if you squint, you can see John McCain.

da bear

[min]

Yes Precter is a wonderful analyst just like a broken clock is an awesome time keeper. Pretty useless if you are a trader or even a lon-term investor. If you are new stay clear. Entertainin stories is only Precter asset I see.

[cstradingman]

to George,

agree. I expect the TLT to bottom between 90.00 - 90.25. It should test this price level twice then rally hard. till then good luck :)

cstradingman

[TObject]

You guys all wrong! :p
Oprah will win 2008 elections. She will finally realize by the end of China's Olympics she does not need her puppet Obama anymore. And Ron Paul will be her running mate - because she's stupid to run the country - main requirement to become the US President. So you'll be reading Oprah's Book club junk instead of Prechter's EWT :) lol

[I. Sosceles]

usdollar,

nice work.

[KRG]

usdollar:

could you post a link to the long term chart of dollar

[usdollar]

Tobject Sosceles send me an email, and I'll send yo graphs and charts of what I mean, it is pretty amazing, and a lot of it comes from Prechters books, however he draw the wrong conclusions.

[email protected]

[usdollar]

Tobject Sosceles send me an email, and I'll send yo graphs and charts of what I mean, it is pretty amazing, and a lot of it comes from Prechters books, however he draw the wrong conclusions.

[email protected]

[KRG]

On US Dollar Long term chart:

Pls send me at [email protected]