Bottom Fishing

Are we there yet?  Both Neely and Prechter think not, but the wave count is nearing an end of some sort. Neely's service has given out a delightful number of emergency updates intraday, giving very precise guidance to traders who have been playing the short side.  The STU sees a series of waves 4-5 unfolding, matching the nested 1-2 waves that started this decline.  They see sentiment metrics beginning to show signs that a bottom is nigh.   The simplest way to count: wave 4 has ended and we have begun the final wave 5.  It may bounce around a bit in those ending 4-5 waves.  This would mark an interim bottom. 

How bad could it be?  Both half expect a wash out dive soon, perhaps intraday - with huge volume and rotation of positions - and yet this is not from the wave pattern, which could end wave 5 with a modest final down move.  If this washout were to happen, it would suggest a more lasting bottom. 

Could it be over without the washout?  If the drop off Oct07 is an ABC zigzag, the C leg would be less than A, whereas usually C = A.  But at times a C leg truncates at 61.8% of A.  Now, the STU thinks this wave 5 would merely end a wave 1 of a much larger decline - but they have held this general posture since 2002.  Maybe the boy who cried Wolf! Wolf! will be proven right, eventually.   

Comments

[Magic of Pi]

Magic of Pi

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=248

[TObject]

STU thinks this wave 5 would merely end a wave 1 of a much larger decline

I like STU's count. It takes us exactry to starts of wave 3 down and August Mars-Uranus crash cycle + confirmes Hindenburg Omen

[Sammy]

Hasnt there been 28 Hindenburg Omens since 1985 and only 8 were crashes of 15% or more? Therefore the odds of a crash based upon the Hindenburg Omen since 1985 is 28.0 percent.

That means the odds we will NOT have a crash of 15%+ are quite high, at 73.0 percent.

[TObject]

Did you count clusters or singles ?
if you have a cluster count it as

[TObject]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10678.htm

[TObject]

Prechter revolutionize financial industry with an invention of a new discipline
he calls "Auscultochartology"

The method uses complex audio pattern recognition aka listening to your chart using regular MP3 player to spot waves and fibo ratios.

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/tutorial/web_ads/2829-header.gif
"Listen to your chart"

[The Dude]

Investors Intelligence - Bullish 27%, Bearish 47%
Either this is a serious s/t or l/t buy or there is something very f#cking wacked with this market.

The Dude

[Upstart]

You guys are a bunch of deadheads anymore. What happened to the latest take on the daily wave action, in the spirit of "commentary...guided by Elliott wave principles"? We've had an interesting series of overlapping waves, and everyone is apathetic? Now everybody just bickers or argues some pet esoteric point that's whirling around in their head today. I'm still sticking to another week+ of downside to a Fibonacci mega-cluster. Today's down close in junk bonds, to a new low, hints that the trend remains down.

[TObject]

Upstart you can't go down - you have "UP" in your name
or rename yourself to a Downstart ;-)
Today was a bottom. now we rally to 1300+ by Options expiration

[MHD]

TObject...nice call on the bottom with the futures down 16 points :-)

[TObject]

It's not me, it is Hindenburg Omen ;-)

but if you read it correctly it still says "Today was a bottom" ;-))
The question is what the definition of "today" is? lol

[Eventhorizon]

Dude - I wonder if a reasonable hypothesis on the conflict between Vix/CPC and II sentiment survey can be resolved as follows:

Action speaks louder than words.

VIX/CPC = Action
II Survey = Words

Just a thought!

[The Dude]

Event - Any idea if sentiment has been a leading indicator of the VIX/CPC?
or should I just forget about this because we are in the middle of the "big one"?
:)

[Upstart]

TObject,

It looked like downstart earlier, eh? Then the big rebound. But we're now so very close to the mega-clustering that I've been watching for months that I really believe that's the magnet for the low. I remain stubborn for now. Maybe we had the first wave of an ending diagonal in the DOW (from Wednesday's high to today's low). It looks like 3 waves, and the late-day rebound would be wave two. Have a good weekend.

Upstart

[The Dude]

Upstart, care to share your fibonacci mega cluster times/dates with us? I would be interested to hear it, Thanks

The Dude

[TObject]

The Dude
it's a big Head&Shoulders on SPX from 2006
with neck line around 1225-1230
Now we could start building right shoulder up to 1300-1316-1330ish

[President Dipas Svaszelinovic]

Upstart, starting revolution talk!
Nobody debating serious wavepolitik here.
Perhaps glorious Ellyott not work!
Tested in publik, komrades boring for wait to be good!
Vaszeline wave make silent komrades filthy kapitalist pigs, RICH!
More revolution coming!

[TObject]

Expecting mini-explosive +50 +70 points SPX rally within days

[Hank Wernicki]

Free Fractal Week : Buy Signal for the SPX this week.

http://www.elliottfractals.com

[TObject]

Hey Hank
what's the typical zoom ratio between 1st and 2ns fractal?

is 1.23 common? I see 2nd fractal forming on SPX (wave 1 looks complete)
or 1.5 is typical?

[TObject]

Board grants Federal Reserve Bank of New York the authority to lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20080713a.htm

[EN]

Yeah, the Neely updates are only delightful if you do the opposite of them. Each one has been a loser. He is losing about 4 percent per week at this rate.

[Hank Wernicki]

TO, 1.2 then 1.6 <<<

Futures are going crazy this morning ......

[Mario]

Hi Hank Wernicki,
Would you give us the link for direct login to the free week?
The current link leads to other pages describing the services, etc. but at the end we are lost without reaching the access
Thanks

[TObject]

Mario,
try
http://www.elliottfractals.com/index_page.asp

[Mario]

Thanks TObject for the link.

I saw one fractal chart for SP500 dated July 10th and general notes about Gold and NDX but no related fractal charts...
This is what we have?

[TObject]

Hank I checked your fractal and I think your labeling is either incorrect or this is not the same fractal. I'd put F2 where F4 is or even lower (upcoming low)
I see another fractal which is inside your fractal
See if you can find it ;-)

Meanwhile both fractals suggest a bounce. Mine is much smaller though :)

[Hank Wernicki]

login here ................ gotta fix those links sorry

http://www.elliottfractals.com/index_page.asp

[Hank Wernicki]

I see it ...

[TObject]

Hank I think you have something there.
Have you tried fine-tune it with astro cycles?
I bet with cycles you'll be able to predict even when next fractal will start forming or completes.
Fascinating stuff :)

[Hank Wernicki]

TO

yes I have and a host of other indicators ....

[TObject]

Hank if every pair of fractals produce a reversal how about the opposite? Does each reversal preceeds by 2 fractals?

If it is true your "W" shaped fractal pattern should have
smaller pairs of fractals inside, correct?

[TObject]

I bet inside "W" pattern you have
FrN1 inside W1-2
FrN2 inside W3-4
which produces 4-5 reversal, correct?

[Upstart]

The Dude,

Literally a handful of trading days away now, or may bottom one day early on Friday. Note too, we're in the 144th week from the end of the huge triangle in the DOW that ended in Oct., 2005. Also in the 34th quarter from the 2000 high.

[Hank Wernicki]

Correct TO

[TObject]

Hank,
so you see now we can't be at point W4 now
and there are at least 2 possibilities
1) we are in 3-4(about midle of it) with 4 bottoming later this year
2) we are in 1-2 (much large "W") with 2 bottoming late this year and 4 bottoming in 2010

what do you think?

[da bear]

I am looking at gold going into an extended fifth wave here. the decline from the $1,030 high until now looks like another fourth wave correction. so this rally could take gold to $2,000 to $3,000 an ounce. I price, I might add, which could put the Federal Reserve Bank out of business.

Elliott Wave Principle notes how commodities can go into extended fifth waves where there is a big rally in price, almost like a mania.

another way to look at gold would be to say that gold at $1,030 was the left shoulder, then the decline, and the head is starting to form now. after the head is formed then it will be the A wave down, then the B wave up (the right shoulder), followed by the C wave down to end primary wave 2 in this secular gold bull market.

da bear

[Tom CZ]

VIX still below 30 lvl - stay tuned on the break of 30 and go long for relief on the break of 35 but not before - till then downtrend in force - we need blood... and not "hopes"

[Scooby]

Here is a biscuit for the bulls.

The Norman Fosback High Low Logic Index just gave a buy signal.

The last HL Logic Index buy signal was in March.

[Tom CZ]

VIX currently 30.29 panic getting widespread

[MHD]

Greenspan must love what he's seeing now. I hope he increases his fees for his speeches as he is without doubt the most brilliant Fed chief ever!!!! I've been saying this for years.

[Mario]

To Hank Wernicki,

Thanks for the free week however I have an important comment.
I think your objective is to get new subscribers by showing them your services and how your system works.
Delaying your recommendations by 60min does not allow me to evaluate your services and consequently to consider a subscription to your services.
You might miss your objective.

[Hank Wernicki]

Mario, you have 1 week. Give it some time Sir

Hank

Oh please review the "past archives" <<<<<<<<<<< this will offer the concepts and trades

We caught 10 points on the S&P futures today ...... ( top tick )

[MT]

Today finally a big spike. Short term bottom is in. Spx shows 5 waves down from 05/19.
From 10/11/07 SPX retraced almost 50% of uptrend 2002/2007
From here a bounce into 1290+
After the bounce, one more bear leg to complete this wave C.

[Tom CZ]

I dont buy this bounce - market not yet paniced enough - VIX on alert call but not the buying one - if it was able to climb above 30 then it sure may send the buy by climbing to print above 35 will rather stay aside till then...

[MT]

CZ, VIX shows also today a spike and a clear abc pattern from 05/19. Panic bottoms pop up only if market reverse from bearish to bullish. There is no technical bullish sign at all. This bounce is only an up correction in this bearleg. But you're right not to buy this small bounce. Cheers.

[Hank Wernicki]

Scooby I think Norman has got it !

[Tom CZ]

MT - agree until we dont broke any meaningful resist to the upside the main direction is lower - only relief bottom picker at "extreme" for 10% or so up then where the matters will show how they are...

[z]

The bounce/rally commences July 16, Wednesday!!!!!!!!!!

[TrAiLbLaZeR]

Does anyone here subscribe to Tim Wood's cyclesman.com??

He was on FSN a few weeks ago talking about how his analysis was open to new highs in the DJIA. Can subscribers share what he is telling them now????

Also Robert McHugh put out a note in which he said markets are about to see trend changes sooner than most think.

As the great Mr. Granville said "what is obvious is obviously wrong". What's obvious right now is that markets will continue to fall, so watch out above!!!!