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« The Surge Will Not Be Denied | Main | Oil Dances the Contango Around the Basis »

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

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Eventhorizon

Not sure on the Vix.

It has taken a spike above 30 to put in the last three bottoms. The 13 day MA has reached the 26-28 zone each time about 6 days after the peak.

Currently the Vix has reached 26 and the MA has taken 23 days to get from 18 to 23 (0.217 points per day). Allowing for a lag of 6 days it will take between 8 and 17 days to reach 26 - 28 at the current rate of increase.

Arithmetic:
(26 - 23) / 0.217 - 6 = 7.8
(28 - 23) / 0.217 - 6 = 17

So, possibly still a week or three to the downside.

Bill C

So, possibly still a week or three to the downside.

That could be a hell of a week or three!

The March 17th trading low was 1256.98 so we still have a few points to go to get below that.

Paul

Sorry, this has nothing to do with your topic, but I's like to point out the media's take for the Dow's fall today. They blame it on GM. BBC calls GM the "biggest drag" on the index. That's BS. With a market cap of barely $5 bn, GM constitutes less than one percent of the Dow 30's total value. GM value is so small, that the next smallest Dow company, Alcoa, is worth nearly six times that much.

Eventhorizon

Paul,

I expect they mean that the psychological impact of GM's predicament is affecting investors and dragging on the index. Your point is absolutely valid none-the-less: financial reporting in general is abysmal.

As an index the Dow sucks ass (as they say in South Park) - it is weighted by share price which makes no sense. For instance compared to market cap, Boeing gets about 4 times the weight it deserves, while GE gets about 1/4.

TObject

Paul, NOT a BS!
check my earlier post about US automakers
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2008/06/entering-the-by.html#comment-120391504

I.Sosceles

noise.
orchestrated.
the decline is over, virginia: fearrrrrrrrrrrrrr
bernake is out.
lehman is dead.
volcker is in the wings for the new year.
the real story is entitled: Between the Lines

abcxabc: small, medium or large? :)

Plain_Ewaver

I agree with Event about the Dow. That's why I only look at the SPX.

And my count is that yesterday at 1292 SPX started 5 of (C).

Fibo targets from smaller to larger degree:
1130, looking within (C), most probable
1166, making (C) = (A)
1090, big picture triangle since 2000

Bob Thompson

Investors Intelligence and Hulbert numbers are on a buy signal.

Highest bear numbers in a decade. Wow!

Tom CZ

as long as market in "Hope" and not "Fear" we are going lower - I need to see bloody marry to get in - exp. S&P EPS quite close to that one seen at the top of realized at the start of 2007 (so around 90) - risk reward to earnings season lower so for the stocks...

Upstart

We're likely in a little sideways correction for another day or two before the final week and a half of drop. Eventhorizon is pretty much on top of it.

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