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« Excedrin Headache #C | Main | Peak Greed Comes Before Peak Oil »

Thursday, July 03, 2008

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George Soros

I almost went broke shorting crude and natural gas!

Percy

All Tim's invitations are "trolling for suckers" oh I meant subscribers. All his statements ever say is he is watching his, take his word for it, "precious indicators". If anyone needed him to tell them the oil price is parabolic, please sit on the stool in the corner of the class. Tim doesn't say buy oil, Tim doesn't say sell oil, he says pay for my letter and I'll tell you what my indicators say. He implies here, but doesn't say it, that he saw, through his indicators a tradeable November top, but all he has actually done since November is watch his indicators and look for a 4 year cycle bottom, which after 5 years he is still watching for. Try to trade on Tim's indicators if you don't like money and want to be told after a loss that "I didn't say that". I have not been one of his suck.. er subscribers but have followed the good ole boy from afar, very afar. I recommend all do the same.

Eventhorizon

Thanks for this interesting post, Yelnick.

I have read several essays in recent months discussing the "speculative bubble" vs "weak dollar" vs "peak oil" hypotheses. I find each argument to have its merits.

To me, it "feels" like a bubble when I look at the chart, but I find this to be the weakest argument from a market mechanics point of view. I can't seem to get my head around this spot vs futures and contango vs backwardation thing.

It's all in your third para above. Here's my confusion, I hope you can help me understand the mechanism of this contango trade: If we are in contango as a speculator I buy spot and sell futures and pocket the cash spread. But what do I do with the oil I now own? Do I take delivery and store it? I can see that I only need to store one month's worth of this trade since from that point on I simply roll contracts (my short future becomes short spot next month which I cover and then short futures once again pocketing the spread). Ultimately I sell what I have in storage once the market gets into backwardation.

IF I have this correct then anytime this trade is increased there is a concommitant increase in oil inventoried somewhere (either in a tank farm, in VLCC, or ... ?). Where would this show up (official inventories, as high VLCC rates / tanker shortages, somewhere else?)?

Am I on the right tack?

yelnick

Event, let me explain as best I understand it in a new post.

TObject

Here's interesting commentary on FSN this week - Institutional Investors reducing exposure to oil - skip to 36th minute from the start
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0705-1.mp3

Percy, agree with you 100% on Tim's "magic indicators" :)
He never says what those indicatora are telling him right now.
But he does have free radio commentary each week
http://www.cyclesman.com/Articles.htm

Puplava clan at FSN bugs me too. I listen FSN for years but all they talk about is oil and gold and especially their favorite Gold Juniors and how we're all doomed. Puplava loves to make huge profits (like 300%) in Gold Juniors yet when comeone is shorting his favorite penny stock he's mad. Puplava invited Eric King who screams at you "You have toi buy juniors!". This sector so volatile and so thinly traded they need suckers to make money. Recently Puplava gona completelly mad - he asked his listeners to call FBI because someone shorted his favorite gold junior. Although I agree Naked shorting should be delt with. Yet solution is simple - don't play in the sector if you know you can lose a lot. But Puplava clan not only continues to play there, they suck listeners as well.


I.Sosceles

Yelnick,

A logarithmic chart, please. Does it matter? Yes.

TObject

Here ya go, log scale :)
http://picasaweb.google.com/Slash850/TACharts/photo#5219568287028740706

pawel

this is hiperbolic buble

patrick neid

My guess for legislative action, should there be any, will be closing the "trading limits" loophole window that Goldman and Morgan have been crawling through placing all those "buy only" positions for the swaps they have been writing.

It may even end up looking like the "sell only" rule the CFTC instituted to crush Bunker Hunt's silver escapade back in 1980 leading to the silver futures trading lock limit down for 21 days.

JP

@George Soros

He went short just after the top in May and said: every turn to the upside must be a counter trend move until the trading cycle low, (which is due in..... only for subscribers)

Tim is doing a great job.

drilling rigs

i am not sure what to think about this.

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Penny Stocks

Thanks for the information on topics.I was excited for this post. Thank you again.

Penny Stocks

Smart post!from now on i will try those tips, very informative thanks for sharing.

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