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« The Coming Debacle is Closer Than You Think | Main | Consensus Count Forming »

Wednesday, January 14, 2009


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I think you meant Dow 8K is `support', not resistance.

82 on the SPY is 62% retracement of rally from November low.

Nice gap sitting at 80 on the SPY.

These are the key levels I'm watching. A break to 74 or below gets me more bullish as a `normal' retracement takes you back to previous 4th on SPY at 94 to 1000. This range (94 to 1000) should likely be a monumental barrier since most investors are in above these levels.


My count suggests that (w1 of wave 5) from 942.75 completed at 812.5;
based on this assumption, ES targets for the bottom of wave 5 of C are:
1.618 Fibonacci extension at 731 (polar bear Scenario)
2.618 Fibonacci extension at 601. (hungry grizzly bear scenario)

Of course, the alternate scenario is that the fall from January 6 is (wave a) of a 5-3-5 X wave of a complex W-X-Y wave 4 of C.

I don't think that this X wave (or B wave in your top post) will go as low as ES/SPX 740 (the 11-21 low). It might, but it won't be pretty.

Targets for such a wave are ES pivots 812 (already reached today) and 782 corresponding to 62% and 78% retracements.

From 782 the Y wave of wave 4 would target ES 998.

Duncan, since you request suggestions for targets, this 600 level is also Roubini's bear estimate (that I posted on
corresponding to p/e 10 and SPX divident of 60 ~ p/e of 12 and SPX divident of 50).

Of course, the 700 +-30 area corresponds to p/e 12 and dividend 58 +-2.5



Everyone thinks the bear is about to reassert itself ... sounds like a great spot for a B wave ... Don't let bias affect your trading, we had this turn ahead of time via the use of an unbiased inflection point. All you can do is react.


Well, I did the usual and increased my NDX long early Thurs AM. It was quite profitable. Will close the remaining long position early tomorrow though (unless I get stopped out first) as I now see a potential 5 wave up completing tomorrow (if the future prices hold into the normal trading day).

Listen to trader Pro he speaks soothe.



are you trading the QQQQ?
on the 15 min chart?
it seems you had a wide stop!



"we had this turn ahead of time via the use of an unbiased inflection point"


which "unbiased inflection point"??

p.s. sorry that I cannot read your blog
the black background makes me sad, it is for funerals.


Glenn Loser Neely


Glenn Loser Neely was recently named the #1 Loser Timer (last 12 months) in the December 28, 2008, edition of Loser's Digest. In addition, Loser's Digest ranked Glenn Loser in the Top 5 S&P Loser Timers for the last 6 months of 2008 (6/08 to 12/08).

Join me in congratulating Glenn Loser on this superb accomplishment, particularly considering the historic volatility of recent markets.

In an interview with Bobby Prechty , Glenn Loser discusses his outlook on his mental illeness and his expectations for a his participation on the upcoming FOX show "American IDIOT" (see your local channel guide)

Von Hochberg
NEoLoserWave Marketing and Public Relations


Hey, Yelnick, I bet yours is the first blog to have an "evil twin" plot. Neely and Loser Neely. I try to imagine what could have caused this anger, but luckily my mind doesn't go there. I keep getting distracted - it is impossible to focus on anger and live a life of meaning, of honor, of worth, of joy. The anger is always on an object and takes away from focusing on the things that really have meaning to you, which are always inside. If you release the anger and not let it control you, you benefit because you become free.


You'd think that a person who hated Neely would, logically, not want to call attention to the fact that Neely's gold timing service was the #1 timer over the past 12 months by posting a message that said the opposite. Like I said, logically.

Forkoholic Serge

Yelnick, I do not see an impulse on USD
anyone has a good count on USD?



How about putting "A" where you have "a", which would make it a zigzag with an irregular flat wave "b". It could also be a double zigzag with a wave x where your current wave "B" is. It could also be forming the B leg of a triangle.



Yes I was trading QQQQ options and netted the quivalent of a $1 move. Did not have a stop on the remaining position as it was all profit at risk and expected a pullback towards end of day Thursday.

Closed remaining position Friday AM close to top tick.

Currently flat awaiting more clarity.



You can now be certified as insane so try not to become Prech's friend as he is the real deal and could drive you deeper in the hole.

Hank Wernicki


I just wanted to give you some feedback and to thank you for your service and all the work you do for your subscribers! I'm also grateful to Ike Iossif for introducing me to you and your services!

I upgraded my subscription to your "live" MFT service on December 23rd, 2008 after my thirty day trial of the 30 minute delayed service. After observing your live calls for two weeks, I started trading your signals in my futures account on January 6th.

I am pleased to report that after nine days of trading my account is up over 250% !!!

I've utilized other services in the past to assist me with my futures trading, but I've never been that successful. Your 8, 16 and 32 Daily and Weekly Fractal Wavelet calls are also helping confirm my swing trade calls in my other account where I trade the indexes over a longer timeframe. Please consider posting the charts for subscribers on a regular basis or on an accessible link on your site.

Thanks again Hank!
I am a very happy new subscriber who will be with you for a long time!

Escondido, CA


Why do you need to advertise your service here. If you consider yourself so good please send your inputs to Yelnick and he will write a critic like he
always writes about Prechter and others.


DG, you're taking GLN way too seriously. Btw I got a really interesting prediction from Glenn in relation to oil, I had suggested to him following his new year warning: "There is one asset which - although it has corrected sharply over the last year - remains finite, is expended permanently every time it's used and will always be required for as long as it exists. Because of these qualities, and with the added bonus of controlled production in accordance with prices, it is an asset that is guaranteed by its very nature to increase in value over the long term - and I can't think of anything else that can be said for. Therefore oil should be the number one long-term holding in anyone's portfolio." I also asked whether the projected bottoming of gold would be a good time for buying oil as it would indicate the end of the commodity deflation.

And this was his response: "Actually, I think an alternate fuel source is likely to be created in the next 5-10 years (which is another reason oil is declining) that will dramatically decrease the need for oil. The age of oil (in a good way, not a bad way) will probably come to an end in 2020-2030." You suggested the same as a possibility as I recall. Just thought you'd like to hear that.


Forkoholic I would favour counting the decline off the high as a 5 wave move, followed by a seven wave correction with x in place of highlited B as per DG's second count.


Why do you need to advertise your service here."

What do you expect from a trading signal service analyst that has the intellectual immaturity to include on his web page, subscriber testimonials (???) like: "HANK for PRESIDENT!!!!"

Hello Hank,
ZEUS up another $1+....and running

and eloquent praise:


Hank hast lost credibility by dodging to answer my question, one that he promised (on this blog on 12-5-2008) to answer, "why fractals are better than Elliott Wave".

Why are Fractals more effective than EW ?
They work much better than EW ... simple answer but a true statement
Seriously there are other reason which I'll post tomorrow

" Hank !!!
You are gifted from God!!! ......
Thank You for your wonderful gift....."

yeah, right!
so gifted, that cannot put 4 sentences together to present his point of view.

Fellows,just ignore the marketing.




"Yes I was trading QQQQ options and netted the equivalent of a $1 move. Did not have a stop on the remaining position as it was all profit at risk and expected a pullback towards end of day Thursday. "

Thanks for the clarification.




I'm trying to help GLN realize that it's never too late to make a comeback from trading losses. If you read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", you see that Livermore went bust quite a few times and always made it back by learning from his mistakes. Even if GLN doesn't think Neely's method has any merit, he shouldn't be spending time bashing Neely, he should be spending it perfecting his own trading methods.

That is an interesting response regarding oil. It may be just a coincidence, but Neely also is forecasting a boom of tremendous proportions to start around 2020. Maybe it will coincide with taking all that oil money out of the hands of kleptocrats and putting it into the hands of whoever invents the oil alternative, which I'm assuming won't be a Saudi, a Russian, an Iranian, etc.


The market is still headed up. As Rogue Poster and I discussed in November, the 22-week cycle low was made at that time. The low which is the half-cycle of that (called the 10-week by Tim Wood) is being worked on now. I'm glad EWI and others expect more downside. This is as it should be.


Although I've also captured most of the upside action since Nov; I'd say less than 50/50 chances of more upside after Wednesday. For me this is a good time to spectate and not participate. I concur, the only thing spoiling everything is that EWI also expects downside hopefully "good 'ol Steve" will invert on his Wednesday STU.


Upstart and Min, Elliottwave has been right in theory all along, and I agree with you that in the past their timing was way off, but since August at least they have been mostly correct. I have made my subscription many times over and avoided having my investments in stocks going down. Where they are best is in a trend and the waves are clearest, of course, and that has served me well. I want to thank everyone for their cautions about EWI, but if you know some other service which is better, please let me know. If we are back in 1929-32 where the waves cascade down, thats a trend to ride. BTW, this month they acquired new "old" data for the far east and have revised their counts on all asian markets. Although this was a surprise, I have a clearer path for my investments this year, which will be overseas in part.I understand their shortcomings, and look for the one gem in the bunch of what they present. That's all I need. Their motto is "ride the wave" not "call the turn" I would rather they correct a count with new information, which is what they should do, than ride a loser. EWI is a sharp organization and does not rely on one analyst as so many services do. Rather than the blind pig who roots out a truffle every once in a while, maybe they are sighted pigs who can at least see where they are going when hunting truffles! LOL


Forgot to mention that the ultra bearish scenario of ES 600 occurring at this juncture, mentioned here

needs an extension of w3 (or w5), more likely extended w3 and then a diagonal for w5.

If this extension is in play, then the count so far is w1- w2 - (i) of a large w3 (as opposed to w1 - w2 - w3).
In this count, so far iv of (i) of w3 has evolved;
I think a minute v of (i) is needed on Monday, taking place either overnight (gap open)or at the open, followed by (ii) of w3.

The coming week will give important clues regarding the wave structure, i.e.
extended w3 of wave 5 evolving
plain vanilla w3 completed and w4 and w5 of wave 5 evolving.

More data will be needed to discriminate between the (w4 and i-ii of w5)of wave5 and the ( a - b ) of C of the flat, in the case that the current subwave ends above or even slightly below 740, assuming a 5-3-5 structure for wave B of the A-B-C flat for wave (4).


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