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« Ground Hog Market & The Super Bowl Indicator | Main | What We Got Here is a Failure to Communicate »

Monday, February 09, 2009

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Eventhorizon

the end is high or nigh? Maybe both?

I am surprised at how low the $CPC is getting - 13 day moving average is at a 2 year low. $CPCE still has a ways to go - not sure what to make of that.

Some argue that $VIX and $VXN are too high for a significant top. I would argue that they are not taking the ACTUAL volatility relative to IMPLIED volatility into account. Currently, with the $vix at 43. the 34 day average true range is 3.8%!!! Last Sept when the $vix was 20, the average true range was 1.7%. Black-Scholes tells you options should be higher than usual right now; maybe the $vix is not pricing panic (i.e. excessive implied volatility) it is simply pricing actual volatility.

This is just thinking out loud here - I haven't done the actual math!

Canadian Money

I continue to agree...lower lows.

Obama should not listen to any economist, or anyone else for that matter, if they did not forecast the market crash. Even Greenspan said he was surprised.

Does anybody know what Obama advisors were saying prior to the market collapse?

CM

DG

CM,

Here's an article about what Larry Summers was up to in 2007:

http://blog.atimes.net/?p=552

george

yelnick,
i have to agree with you about
them slipping pig (or pork in
the barrel) with this stimulus
package. also i agree with your
comment that they are not concerned
enough to keep away a depression.
what if this sideways correction is
the obama rally? scarey thought...
george

Forkoholic Serge

>Their prime count is a little wave 2 of that wave (5) down,

Jezz EWI can't even count? ;-))
We're still in Wave 4
http://forkoholic.com/images/Wave4topping.jpg

dom

"Jezz EWI can't even count? ;-))
We're still in Wave 4"

Wow did you even read the post?

MHD

Could Neely be right???? Some of you think a crash might start because of an terrorist attack, but a derivative "issue" would also be high up there as far as a potential cause for a crash. Or maybe the markets are looking at 6 months from now and things are just going to suck!!!

KD

Is physical Au a long-term buy here?

MHD

I need an Elliott expert to explain the different forecasts. Neely thinks we go off a cliff from here and once we bottom have a stong rally and then fall again but not to new lows. Most other ewavers think we break the lows in Nov followed by a large strong rally (50% retrace) and then a C wave that will take us to the final lows. Why the different forecasts even though both point down?

yelnick

MHD - not really that different. Neely sees a good short right now, hence his view. The STU is not specific on the downside from now, but it will at least break the Nov21 lows. If it meanders down in an ending diagonal form, it should truncate short, and that would represent a wave 4 triangle rolling into wave (5); but if we just ended wave 2 of (5) and are now in 3, we should have a rapid and decisive break. The prime count of the STU is wave 3 of (5). So the prime count of STU and Neely agree on the prognosis: a sharp drop like a wave 3 'point of recognition' that the Geithner/Porkulus plan is the wrong medicine for the patient. Might have started today!

MHD

Thanks! I like the name you've given the plan.

yelnick

MHD, there is a lot of good economic analysis trashing this Porkulus bill. Interesting how Obama claims there is a 'consensus' that we have to act fast and deep. This is very much like Gore pronouncing a 'consensus' on global warming. Turns out in neither case is there such a consensus. Makes you realize that when a politician claims consensus and urgency in the same breath it means they are stuffing down our throats something that cannot withstand the scrutiny of light. The only urgency is to get it passed before common sense returns. Simplest way to put it is only about 12% of the Porkulus is even arguable as stimulus, and much of it is spent slowly.

DG

MHD,

Neely is saying that we're in a complex correction from the January 2008 highs (he doesn't have the bull market ending at its highest price point, which is actually very typical for the way he counts waves), whereas EWI has us in an ABC. The end of Neely's complex correction (which may have just ended its "x" wave) is likely to be a contracting non-limiting triangle. In that triangle, the "A" wave would make the lowest price print. That "might" be the wave we're starting now. That triangle should play out over the calendar year 2009, eventually ending it's "E" wave somewhere around halfway between the highs we just had around 870 and whatever low we hit (you know the numbers that he's been discussing). From there, we start a new bull market to all time highs.

At the core, the difference in count is driven by the rules they use to determine whether waves are impulsive or corrective.

cruiser9805

The reason for the all time high is coming inflation. I believe in 10,000/ounce of gold. I also believe in the 5 dollar coke and the 10 dollar pound of bread.

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