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« Timing of the Bottom | Main | Neely Accuracy Recognized »

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

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Canadian Money

Don't count a wave 3 finished too soon. Third waves have a way of going on and on. they love to extend into new territory. This may only be a wave within wave 3.

CM

alan k

what's neely's target for a low?

alan k

okay -- reading earlier posts suggests a little under 500 on the s and p 500

if I'm wrong, would somebody correct

dlu

Agree.it is third of a third completed. Another push down to new lows is required to complete the 3 of (5)

Steven_737

XLF has completed (or is about to complete) w5 of (3).

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3391/3329102453_23e8fc55bb_o.png

Forkoholic Serge

$NYMO around cycle low and shows what looks like possible divergence
Volume is at levels where lows usually arrive
CPCE is in very strange triangle - what the heck is that?
so 2 out of 3 signaling the low is somewhat close
http://forkoholic.com/images/spx030409b.jpg

Steven_737

dlu

"it is third of a third completed. Another push down to new lows is required to complete the 3 of (5)"

chart please?

Steven_737

Yelnick,

wave (3) started mid-August.

"to end this large move from Oct07"
what do you mean?
.

yelnick

Steve737, the wave 3 I am referring to is 3 of (5) which started either Jan28 or Feb9, ie after wave (4) ended on Jan6 and wave (5) began. We are likely in little wave 4 of (5), which should last days not weeks. Then a final wave 5 of (5) and we complete the move from Oct07, which Prechter labels as wave (1) of C since 2000. (Wave A went to Mar03, and wave B to Oct07).

This does NOT mean we are done. It means we have a pretty good wave (2) of C, the Obama Hope Rally, and then the Summer of Disillusionment sets in and down we go in the REAL Big One, wave (3) of C. (Wave C which should be a five-wave down over the next 3 to 5 years to a much lower low than the Dow7K range.) Right now the US public is too optimistic, but they also were such in the Spring of 1930, when Hoover said the worst was over and prosperity was around the corner. The market retraced 50% that Spring.

Prechter's wave (3) of C will be the one that breaks the remaining optimism and throws us into a spiritual as well as an economic depression. The point of recognition of the depths of the economic fall we are in. And the recognition that all the stimulii in the world are not enough to put humpty dumpty (the credit bubble) back together again.

dlu

steven here is the link

[URL=http://img17.imageshack.us/my.php?image=spx4mar09h.png][IMG]http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4237/spx4mar09h.png[/IMG][/URL]">http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4237/spx4mar09h.png[/IMG][/URL]">http://img17.imageshack.us/my.php?image=spx4mar09h.png][IMG]http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4237/spx4mar09h.png[/IMG][/URL]

dlu

do not work trying again

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4237/spx4mar09h.png

dlu

here is another working link

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/4237/spx4mar09h.png

dlu

oops nothing happened

--<http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/4237/spx4mar09h.png>

hope it works

KRG

Y: What is Pretcher's C target?

Ross

Below I've posted a couple of charts, the dow daily and dow weekly. The weekly sits on a very long term trendline, back to 1987.. And the daily is also very close to a major support trendline from the october and november lows. I believe we could go down to the daily trendline of about 6500 that could be support. -Ross

http://ross-oregoncoast.blogspot.com/

Steven_737

dlu,

Thank you for the chart.

Yelnick

Thank you for the clarification.
.

Steven_737

nice chart Ross;

I see you just started the blog.

Have fun.

Canadian Money

Was that the sound of a "bull trap" closing I heard this morning?

CM

Steven_737

CM

you bet it was.

your chart please?

Upstart

Nice call, Canadian Money!

Sean

Yelnick, so looks like today both Neely and Precther got caught pants down again?!!!

What excuses and re-labellings are they coming out again? Thanks for the new updates

yelnick

KRG, hasn't given one. Too low I suppose. On his count, the 87 crash was wave 4. And usually these things go down to the prior 4th. So he may really believe we go to between Dow1700 - 2700. Suddenly it seems possible! My count is different, starting in 1982, and the prior 4th would put us around dow3600-4K.

DG

Sean,

I doubt that Neely will need to relabel his current count. I'm sure he'll have us still in an x-wave down before a big bull trap rally because we're still within the allowable length of an x-wave even with today's declines.

Look, no one gets every tick. It's simply not possible. Neely's "Weekly" timeframe traders just pulled 100 points out of the ES by being short over the past 10-15 days and he advised them to cover the last of their shorts yesterday. Daily and Hourly traders have been out of the market, so no gains or losses for them over the past couple of weeks.

Canadian Money

That punny 100 point bull trap closing doesn't mean a larger rally is not just around the corner. I'm still struggling with that longer term wave count.

DG

CM,

Might I suggest going over to Trader's Talk and seeing the latest free update Neely's posted? Someone else will probably have the URL, but I don't.

I think he posts them on about a one week delay, so you'll have nearly the most updated version and there hasn't been much change. Yelnick has it right at a "high level" in the post above.

One key factor to keep in mind is that Neely is not counting this bear market as an impulse, but as a complex correction that began with an expanding triangle. When I see people talking about wave 3's and wave 5's, I know that eventually they're going to get confused because the decline doesn't meet the criteria for an impulse. What everyone sees as "wave 3" was "wave E" of that expanding triangle. At least that's how it counts according to Neely's ruleset.

Which brings up the bigger question of are there hard and fast rules in Elliott Wave or is it more or less all guidelines and "gut feel".

Wave Rust

DG,
i ask a favor,,, so i don't have to go look it up in neely's book ,,, explain what you mean 'Neely is not counting this bear market as an impulse, but as a complex correction that began with an expanding triangle',,,

and this 'everyone sees as "wave 3" was "wave E" of that expanding triangle' is that from the nov. low?

or just give me the page number in the book,,, wishing for a better index in the book! :))

tHank you

wave rust

DG

Wave Rust,

It's not something straight out of Neely's book, except insofar as he doesn't see the move from the October 11, 2007 to the current low as meeting the rules for an impulse. The primary reason being that there was too much overlap in the initial move down and it broke as a 3-waver. Dom, from Trading The Charts, may he rest in peace, also noted this and took it as a bullish sign that the intial move down was a 3-waver. That turned out to be incorrect, obviously, but his insight was on to something. Forward from there, what people were calling the "iii of 3" down in September and October 2008, which is now leading them to be looking for either a v of 3 or a 5, is the wave E that I mentioned. That wave E ended in October and since then we've been in a big wave x, which is why the correction is now considered "complex".

The rally off the jobs number fizzled, but I like this late day action as the kick-off to Neely's rally. I was early, but I'm about 1/3 long right now, but won't add until I see some follow-through on Monday.

Yeah, an index period would work for that book, although by now I've read it so many times I can practically find anything in there.

Valerio Peracchi

Although I have written a book about and concerning the EWT, I’m always continuing to match my researches with new and old other founts.
Of course I also studied for a long time this sequential correction and thus now I would again point to the words of Steven W. Poser (author of a text about the EWT): “If you can’t count, it is a correction”.
On the one hand it is useful to recall what was mentioned just above, but by the other side it’ll be extremely necessary that our mind was flexible to make another important step forward in research.
Well, in spite of the difficulties to bear in mind the waves of this bear market, I would like to show you my counting, that is what I consider more likely.
After a long inner debate I also convinced myself that the current down-swing should be labeled as a Wave (3).
But I have always argued and strongly contended that it is more important the corrective waves counting, even before those impulsive and therefore according to this principle I would like to draw your attention on the Wave (2).
Most of us will do terminate Wave (2) in the point where I labeled as A, but only because it is first and most simple and intuitive, but intuition is nothing if not long after the study.
Just for Wave B, which for many it should already be part of Wave (3), however, is impossible to accept a counting in five sub-waves or, more correct, in a five motive mode.
In reason of it I’ve set the starting point of Wave (3) where these is the exhaustion of the complex triangle A-B-C-D-E. It is also important to note that this coincides with the day of the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy.
Well, even psychologically and sociologically, it seems to say that everything sounds good!
Therefore Wave (3) is still running and in progress now and the break of 740/750 points area was caused by the sub-wave 3 of (3) and that sounds good again!
First and most likely target of this impressive third wave is at the level of 590 points of S&P500 Index, but if you project from the starting of the correction and the same as it was then developed, objectives are achieved even below the 250/200 points.
Indeed Wave (1) extends for about 300 points, which if you project it of the 4.236 Fibonacci’s ratio, at the end leads to a correction below the minimum level of 300.
Of course, if these are targets at a medium-long term, in the meantime in a short term, it is most likely a pause in selling pressure and that could allow a little ‘bounce till to 700/720 area that will be able to label as Wave 4 of (3), before the fifth Wave of (3) and before of the final (5) to complete a Primary Wave.

PS Eventually how can I post the chart? Thx and sorry for my bad English!!! lol

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