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« Wave 4 Appears On | Main | A Vergence in the 4s UPDATED 3/20 »

Sunday, March 15, 2009

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Corey Rosenbloom

Duncan,

Excellent summary! Thank you for the link.

I like what you have in your "About" section: "Elliott Wave Mystic Poop too Esoteric" Too funny!

All the best, Corey

Forkoholic Serge

Who cares!
Yelnick was ignoring Forkoholics Official Count for years, even Centuries!

Robert Murdoch

As a novice to Elliott Wave theory, I am now somewhat confused. In a previous post I made to the March 11th thread, Yelnick clarified for me where he thought Robert Prechter stood on the wave count, which is that within wave [1], we are are in wave (5). Within wave (5), we appear to be in wave 4, with wave 5 to follow.

I read on another website on March 8 that we are within intermediate wave 3. The current rally would mean that we are seeing minute 4 and then would come minute 5 to a new low, to conclude both minor 5 and intermediate wave 3.

Is this the same as what is being outlined in the bearish case on Afraid to Trade.

I can understand the wave structure beyond wave (5) of wave [1] and suspect wave [5] won't complete until sometime in the 2012 to 2014 time frame.

What I don't understand in the bearish case is the wave structure beyond the conclusion of intermediate wave 3 and how long it might take to conclude this bear market.

Perhaps someone with knowledge of the differences can explain them clearly to me.

Thank you

Robert Murdoch

Or alternatively, is the bearish case that we are in wave (3) of wave [1] down?

roger

Shallow retracement and a huge drop forthcoming. Markets will close for a while. Don't forget that the scale of this bear is bigger than '29-'32. We have eight decades of peace and prosperity with the 80s and 90s and 00s to boot!

usdollar

I believe still that we are about to end wave 3 down, but not on a wave 1, but a wave C. So that would mean that wave A down was made 2000-2002, Wave B was done 2002-2007 (oct) Wave C will end in the end of this year 2007-2009,(~2800), this will be wave [A], Wave [B] will run as follows. A 2009-2010 top, B 2010-2011 (retest of 2009 lows), 2011-2015 wave C up to a top, maybe a 38.2% retrace of wave [A]???7200ish probably lower. Wave [C] down to total collapse 2015-2018. Why? Kondratieff winter 18 years, normal for the longest cycles (this is one of them). Frost Benner fib cycle, 2010 top, 2011 bottom, 2015 top, 2018 bottom.

yelnick

Robert Murdoch, the alt count you saw on Mar8 is probably the same count. It is on several sites. The site I linked to is a really nice one, and worth bookmarking and following. One of the tricks to elliott wave is to know what degree of trend or count we are in. Neely on his site (in his FAQs) has some good guidance on this, especially around the speed of a move (or the slowness). I also summarized some of his points recently - click on my category elliott wave theory to find that post.

Now to your question: wave (3) may not have ended on Nov21 as Prechter counts; it may have been the end of wave 3 of (3). So what I count as wave (4) is instead wave 4 of (3); and wave (5) is instead 5 of (3). The waves 4 and 5 of one lower degree.

One way to gauge whether this count is sound is to look at time relationships. Wave (3) fell pretty fast and hard, and the fastest drop is typically wave 3 of (3), back in Sept. But the whole move took six months. This wave (4) only lasted about 6 weeks, hence could be merely a subwave inside of (3). So it remains possible.

Elliott waves in the end are a matter of probability. Is it more likely wave (3) ended already? Yes.

If however this alt count is valid, then we would be in wave (3) of [1]. The waves (4) and (5) are ahead, and presage a lower low.

Robert Murdoch

So, Yelnick, if the alternative count were to be valid would it be fair to say that this bear market will be longer and the low deeper than if we are now concluding wave (5) of [1]?

Robert Murdoch

Yelnick:

Could you also please see my query at the bottom of the March 11th blog. It relates to the Question of the Week on Neely's website.

Thanks

yelnick

Robert Murdoch, as to the first question - if this is wave (3) of [1] will the whole bear market be longer as well as end lower: not necessarily. Instead the lowest low may happen faster, perhaps by 2011; and it may mark the end of the whole bear market. In the 1929 bear, the lowest low was 1932, but the whole bear didn't end until 1949 or 1950. A good argument can be made that FDR's policies pushed us back down after 1937; the bear might have otherwise ended in 1932. In the 1837 panic, the other close analogy to today, the market dropped into 1842, and the bear ended. There was no comparable government meddling to sustain a depression, so we came out. A fast and deep 2007 - 2011/2012 drop is comparable to those two in their first, worst drops. Then whether we have a longer bear market probably depends on government policy.

As to the Neely question - that the low may happen in 2009 and not be broken, and the bear may go out to 2012 or 2014 in a trading range, perhaps as a triangle-like formation before a big rally: this is worth considering. It would be somewhat like 1929-1949 in shape, albeit much shorter. Note that Neely has made bold statements like this before: he said we wouldn't break the 1987 low, and so far he has been right; he said we wouldn't break the 2002 low, and on that he was wrong.

The odds that the bear will be longer are pretty high, given the huge intervention into the market so far. Japan of course suffered for 20 years, and is now in really deep trouble. They spent $6T to stimulate, which would be (in GDP terms) equivalent to the US spending $20T. It didn't seem to help other than to postpone the inevitable, and probably has made it worse, since Japan has very little room today to take on more debt.

Prechter's socioeconomc view is that the stock market reflects a deeper underlying social mood, and that mood causes many other decisions to be made, like excessive meddling in the economy, that can make the whole situation worse. As a consequence I believe he is getting more firm in his view that the eventual low will be down to the range of the 4th wave of the prior 3rd, or the 1987 crash - Dow1700-2700 range.

Robert Murdoch

Thanks, Yelnick.

da bear

yelnick,


i was looking through a copy of At The Crest of the Tidal Wave (2000 Edition) and the current DJIA looks like the 1938 low. Figure 5-9 on page 83 shows the 1937 top, the first leg down, the wave 2 high followed by a sharp wave 3 down with a wave 3 of 3 low in October, a rebound, then a slightly lower low in November (also similar to the 1929 crash). Then a wave 4 sideways move into 1938, then a final wave 5 drop at the end of March 1938.


what is the current EWI count? still possibly wave one wave 5 down to go in intermediate wave 1?

da bear

DJIA tried to hit 7,400 and failed. then the stock market fell off towards the end of the day. small wave 4 could be over, with a final little wave 5 down to go.


da bear

Hank Wernicki

March 17th

The recent 5 day "Bear Market Wonder Rally" has Ended.

All my fractal targets have been satisfied with strong fractal wavelet confirmations.

I am expecting the markets to slowly fade to new Lows.

April 6th is the next wavelet date for a potential bottom and rip roaring rally for the
markets ( 3,000 + points ).

Initial target is the low 600's for the SPX

Agressive Traders can short on any fractal rallies for the next 3 weeks with appropriate stops.

( Note: I will supply the Entry Points and Stops for this Fractal Trend Down )

Intermediate and Long Term Investors / Traders should remain in Cash


Hank Wernicki





da bear

Yeah Mr. Wernicki, it seems as if this rally is over. attempted to hit 7,400 and fell back and closed lower for the day. I think the last little wave 5 down won't extend too much. say a slouch towards 6,200 for the DJIA. Then the 'Miracle Rally' intermediate wave 2 into the end of Spring or the beginning of Summer.

da bear

Meet the new Spring 1930 Rally. Oh wait, it's not here yet...

optionist

Thanks Hank. When you said above that "The recent 5 day "Bear Market Wonder Rally" has Ended. I am expecting the markets to slowly fade to new Lows. April 6th is the next wavelet date for a potential bottom and rip roaring rally for the markets ( 3,000 + points ). Initial target is the low 600's for the SPX", I knew you were correct as was da bear when he said, "it seems as if this rally is over. attempted to hit 7,400 and fell back and closed lower for the day. I think the last little wave 5 down won't extend too much. say a slouch towards 6,200 for the DJIA. Then the 'Miracle Rally' intermediate wave 2 into the end of Spring or the beginning of Summer." All this confirms my own convictions of what the market is doing. I am not going to short this drop. However, I have already staked out the calls that I plan to buy during this final sell off, and will be going 90% in. I`m optionistic.

Mamma Boom Boom

Hank,

I don't want to wish you any bad luck, but I certainly hope your wrong. I see this running for a while, once we get this correction out of the way.

Ned

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